Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

It’s not “game over for the shorts” until the big money starts accumulating TSLA. Until then, there is great money to be made selling calls and manipulating the SP.

Big money needs reasonable assurances that Tesla is going to be sustainably cash flow positive. Maybe one quarter’s deliveries and cash flow will suffice, but odds are it will take multiple quarters.

And they will get the assurance when they see a solid cash position and TSLA is not going bankrupt in 10 months.

 

[Sean Wagner]

A-friggin' men. The Drive piece by Alex Roy - The Penalty of Leadership: From Cadillac to Tesla.

Cadillac used to actually be the Standard Of The World. They pioneered essential automotive technologies besides being the first to build cars with interchangeable parts - and prove it.

Quote from their advertisement dating back to 1915/ ... It is as old as the world and as old as human passions - envy, fear, greed, ambition, and the desire to surpass. And it all avails nothing. If the leader truly leads, he remains - the leader. Master-poet, master-painter, master-workman, each in his turn is assailed, and each holds his laurels through the ages. That which is good or great makes itself known, no matter how loud the clamor of denial. ... /Unquote

Alex Roy's previous piece was excellent too:

How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Buy A Tesla

Especially in light of the anti-Tesla maniac who also gets published on theDrive and constantly referred to in the Financial Times' Alphaville section together with everything remotely negative about the company - because it's clearly up to readers to fact-check and provide sensible context.

I never expected smart so-called journalists to stoop as low as Alphaville.

 

[Sean Wagner]

This might sensibly belong in the thread too, especially since Matthias Schmidt provides interesting localized information:

Quote/ Judging by recent posts by VW representatives, current order rate of the €40k 1st edition #ID3 is around 4k-5k per month if we factor in a spike in the first week. Would put it at around same monthly volume as Zoe in EU suggesting private market not about to go mass market soon /Unquote, June 19th
Matthias Schmidt on Twitter

Addendum: in the context of EU emissions regulations requiring a changed model mix, his pinned tweet is highly relevant.

 

[mrmage]

I'm sure many people in your position (in the red) feel the same. Fortunately for me, I am still well in the black overall. However, different from you, I don't invest for the mission or the market, or anything other than - I LOVE THE CAR. It is the single best product I've ever purchased. I typically invest based on how I personally feel about a company's product or services. I figure if I love it, then others probably will also. I got in pretty early with Amazon simply due to how much I loved free 2-day shipping and amazing customer service. The incredible product Tesla makes is why I invested in TSLA. Same with Priceline. I missed out on Netflix because I simply didn't like it.

With that said, I would still prefer Elon Musk over any one else running Tesla. Without Musk, I seriously doubt any of us would have ever heard of a car company called Tesla. Without Musk, there sure wouldn't have been a product called AutoPilot in 2014, and definitely not as affordable as it is today (if I can afford such an amazing product - it's CHEAP!!). Sometimes his flare for pushing the limits gets him in trouble (falcon wing doors), but you have to take the good with the bad - and I firmly believe Musk has been overwhelmingly good for this company. It's not even a discussion for me. I just wish he would stop using his emotions and hopes when he makes comments that we take as guidance. These things REALLY need to be more scientifically based - on actually evidence.

The funny thing is, we're almost the opposite wrt the car. We keep running into quirks with the MX, and bought it for FSD, which looks like it will take longer than I thought. Worse, we bought last Dec 31, and shortly thereafter Tesla lowered the price, announced the revamp, and gave away FSD.

Despite everything, I agree with you about EM's good points and intentions, and consider him a pioneer and a hero. Plus, I believe there's a boatload of money to be made longer term, when everyone here gets serious about climate change.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

To put current valuations into perspective, slack is currently valued at 20 billion, or 50 times revenue. If people valued tesla the same way it would be worth over a trillion dollars already.
I bet morgan stanley and goldman sachs think that slack is undervalued.
Clueless idiots the lot of em.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Then there's the absolute crazy ones that just make up lies.

Or the crazy ones who think the earth is flat and gravity is an evil conspiracy by atheists trying to deny God.

(Note: no general statement on religion here, this was an actual stated position by a prominent short)

 

[kbM3]

There's only a few things that can happen to really push the SP up at this point. 90,000 deliveries won't move it much. That is within the demand pull-forward range. It would take > 100,000 to have an impact. And to make a truly significant impact, it would need to be more than 105,000. Other than that, it's going to take a strong 3rd quarter (to alleviate the pull-forward fears), or a surprise announcement that the Model Y is entering production sooner than later. Remember that Tesla's comment on the Y has been something along the lines that full production will happen late 2020. But, the 3 took a year to 1.5 years to get up to full production. I don't think there's any way the Y will take that long, but 6 to 12 months could be a reasonable guess. That would mean production could start in Oct '19 to January '20. That would be awesome.

The main reason Tesla had such a negative cash flow in q1 is 14k more production than deliveries. A key factor in analyzing q2 will be delta deliveries vs. production.

I.e. Cash flow of $100M with deliveries exceeding production by 5k vehicles is much worse than cash flow of -$100M with production exceeding deliveries by 5k, if I understand accounting (which admittedly is a new skill since my background is engineering

 

[neroden]

If SA's censorship bias gets proven in court they could lose their DMCA Safe Harbor status I suppose.

Bingo. I think nobody thinks it's worth it to go after them (yet), but Seeking Alpha has no DMCA safe harbor due to their repeatedly-exhibited selective editorial bias. They're responsible for everything published on the site -- libel cases, fraud cases, everything, Seeking Alpha is directly liable because they are *not* an open forum.

 

[wipster]

This is more likely a cell issue rather than car production issue. Remember the last podcast where Elon said they wouldn't have cells if they wanted to start producing Y today?

Also, he said there that the extra cell capacity will come just in time for Y production.

To me though this seems like a too long of a stretch for regular Pana cells, so I have a very small hope that maybe they are considering something MXWL based. Like 5%.

To add on to your point about the cells, just remember, no matter what the demand is, Tesla can't sell what they can't make. GF3 will add ~400K annually, GF4 will probably add something similar, both eventually including the Y. Then we'll have pickup 1 and also the Semi, so there will be at least 6 markets in which Tesla will be active. On top of that we have Energy, both home and commercial on energy production and especially storage (which IMHO will be huge, especially where some power companies now are actually buying energy from individual Powerpacks at peak times and at retail rates!). But the one thing all but solar roofs and panels need is cells, hence that is what Tesla needs to concentrate their energies, making as many batteries as possible. I believe the quicker they can climb that mountain, the quicker we'll get to the top.

Ya can't sell what ya can't make.

 

[TradingInvest]

To put current valuations into perspective, slack is currently valued at 20 billion, or 50 times revenue. If people valued tesla the same way it would be worth over a trillion dollars already.
I bet morgan stanley and goldman sachs think that slack is undervalued.
Clueless idiots the lot of em.

Don't do this comparison, shorts will laugh at you. Different business types, Slack is a software company, the main cost is a few hundred SW engineers, if they manage to double revenue, all the new revenue is profit. Tesla is viewed as a car company, car business has huge cost. For example, you can have $10B revenue, the total cost maybe $11B. Next year you may double revenue to $20B, cost goes to $21B.

You could say Tesla is not really a car company, it's a software/service/insurance/energy company in the making, the market doesn't buy that at this time.

 

[RobStark]

O.T.

Fremont CA 5th most unfaithful city in US.

 

[wipster]

Cadillac used to actually be the Standard Of The World. They pioneered essential automotive technologies besides being the first to build cars with interchangeable parts - and prove it.

Quote from their advertisement dating back to 1915/ ... It is as old as the world and as old as human passions - envy, fear, greed, ambition, and the desire to surpass. And it all avails nothing. If the leader truly leads, he remains - the leader. Master-poet, master-painter, master-workman, each in his turn is assailed, and each holds his laurels through the ages. That which is good or great makes itself known, no matter how loud the clamor of denial. ... /Unquote

Alex Roy's previous piece was excellent too:

How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Buy A Tesla

Especially in light of the anti-Tesla maniac who also gets published on theDrive and constantly referred to in the Financial Times' Alphaville section together with everything remotely negative about the company - because it's clearly up to readers to fact-check and provide sensible context.

I never expected smart so-called journalists to stoop as low as Alphaville.

I just want to know what happened next!

 

[Doggydogworld]

So he is forecasting a 0.50 EPS this quarter and over $4 EPS in12/2021? But it's a sell? What happened to the $1B loss per quarter and bankruptcy narrative?

His income statements don't make any sense to me. 399m SG&A this year? It was 700m+ in Q1 alone. Even his historical 2018 numbers don't match reality. He seems to double count depreciation and amortization. Maybe he's reclassified some cost line items into different buckets, but I sure can't figure it out.

 

[SPadival]

Bearish article by Russ Mitchell on LATimes:

Quelle surprise .. Che sorpresa! Please don’t give desperate Russ free clicks.

 

[wipster]

The main reason Tesla had such a negative cash flow in q1 is 14k more production than deliveries. A key factor in analyzing q2 will be delta deliveries vs. production.

I.e. Cash flow of $100M with deliveries exceeding production by 5k vehicles is much worse than cash flow of -$100M with production exceeding deliveries by 5k, if I understand accounting (which admittedly is a new skill since my background is engineering

Speaking from experience in running a startup, quarterly financial reports are ridiculous and really make for bad decisions at times just to attempt to convince a board and investors about the health of your company. While we were never public, we were a C class SW company selling a specialized product and it is asinine to have explain to a somewhat ignorant board why the current quarter showed a loss but if a purchase order for a license would have been dated June 30th rather than July 1st the company would have shown a substantial quarterly profit! I'm amazed at times that I still have any hair left...

 

[Carl Raymond]

The main reason Tesla had such a negative cash flow in q1 is 14k more production than deliveries. A key factor in analyzing q2 will be delta deliveries vs. production.

I.e. Cash flow of $100M with deliveries exceeding production by 5k vehicles is much worse than cash flow of -$100M with production exceeding deliveries by 5k, if I understand accounting (which admittedly is a new skill since my background is engineering

Ja. But one metric, cash, is highly visible and will move the stock price. The other metric, inventory, involves arithmetic to factor it in assessing company performance. Only the diligent will take any notice.

Such differences, true performance versus perceived performance, is why we buy the stock. We see something that others are missing. Your observation is similar to the whole tipping point disruption of traditional auto that we see coming.

 

[Mader Levap]

Oh, good catch. So there is prior evidence that Israeli spy / propaganda agencies are out to get Tesla. We still don't know why.

So, now that we have evidence of Israeli spy/propaganda agents running hit pieces on Tesla, and noticing that Seeking Alpha (home of anti-Tesla hit pieces) is run out of Israel, does anyone have *any idea* why Israeli spy agencies would be hostile to Tesla?!?! Motivations of Saudi Arabia and Russia are clear, but motivations of Israeli government?!?

You are really paranoid. Why it can't be just personal worldview of SA owner? Why it is really important to you guys that it must have some sinister state support?

 

[Alphacrux]

A Raven has landed.

 

[dc_h]

i'm reminded of the troll/israeli intelligence guy who put out that hit piece on Elisabeth Soechting...
Elon’s Brain on Twitter

-thx for dip tho got another 8 shares today

Why would a guy like this write under his own name? It’s like he wants to get caught.

 

[JusRelax]

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