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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I have seen a lot of people say the chat doesn't show up in Chrome, that they have to use IE or another browser to get to it...
Did he actually leave? I thought they just said that he switched from CTO to Senior Advisor but is still with Tesla.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
A thought regarding interior S/X refresh:
The entire modern history of cars is one of buying a new car to get the latest styling, and color, and fancy new dashboard, and new style steering wheel...yada yada. But we are no longer in that world.
We are now in a world where a car is an old fashioned human-driven car, or an AP1 car, or an AP2 car or soon a FSD car.
In other words, what makes a car *NEW* is no longer the style, but the technological capability.
I have a 2015 model S (arachnid wheels being fitted AS I SPEAK!), and I love it. A new-look interior would not prompt me to upgrade. the things that make me nervously hover over the 'buy button' are FSD capabilities and longer range. THAT is what will get S/X owners to upgrade.
Think about it: You can lose $20,000 in the trade-in for your S/X for a new model. Do you want...
option a) New interior
option b) True FSD, faster charging, 33% longer range, more responsive and capable MCU.
I know which option I'd pay the money for.
The entire modern history of cars is one of buying a new car to get the latest styling, and color, and fancy new dashboard, and new style steering wheel...yada yada. But we are no longer in that world.
We are now in a world where a car is an old fashioned human-driven car, or an AP1 car, or an AP2 car or soon a FSD car.
In other words, what makes a car *NEW* is no longer the style, but the technological capability.
I have a 2015 model S (arachnid wheels being fitted AS I SPEAK!), and I love it. A new-look interior would not prompt me to upgrade. the things that make me nervously hover over the 'buy button' are FSD capabilities and longer range. THAT is what will get S/X owners to upgrade.
Think about it: You can lose $20,000 in the trade-in for your S/X for a new model. Do you want...
option a) New interior
option b) True FSD, faster charging, 33% longer range, more responsive and capable MCU.
I know which option I'd pay the money for.
Why leave?
—> 16 years in not simply “start up mode” stress, but “Elon Musk start up mode” stress. The last 6 years of this daily tension while knowing you, and generations to come, are ridiculously wealthy.
—> Since I’ve been following the company closely (2012), perhaps basically all of Tesla’s history (even while others were CEO) it had been very clear that JB was Elon’s “number 1,” so to speak. That is, his most trusted and valued contributor and companion on Tesla’s journey. Then Jerome was made head of automotive last year. What’s more autonomy has clearly by far become the most captivating area of development for Elon, and he seems quite taken with its driver, Andrej Karpathy. (gratuitous speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Musk looks at Karpathy and thinks, “hmm... there may be someone with a more capable mind than myself... and must be nice to be so consistently “chill” yet energetically positive”).
It seems JB has basically gone from sort of Elon’s little brother, always by his side (literally brought on global trips and at his side 2013-15) and presumed heir apparent when Elon leaves CEO role for more SpaceX time (which once was a strong possibility once the Model 3 hit volume production, but not too likely for years with the CEO agreement Elon made with Tesla a year or two ago)... JB seems to have gone from that to part of the second tier orbit around Elon’s focus, barely noticed amid all the energy around day-to-day drama for which Jerome is his key player, and Tesla’s perceived FSD future, led by Karpathy.
—> Elon and JB seem to have such different personalities. Somewhat speculative, but I suspect Elon’s behavior towards people grates to some extent with JB. Given the first two points above, it’s probably become harder to ignore. The intensity of the last two years and rough treatment/letting go of large groups of employees have probably also made it harder to ignore.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
jhm
Well-Known Member
You summoned.
Here's how I like to look at it. In 2018 the world generated 26,615 TWh for the whole year, according to BP stat review. That is 72.9 TWh per day, or 3.04 TW.
So roughly speaking 2TWh of batteries would be a 40 minute supply. This level would be quite transformative.
Some studies find that in going to 100% it could be economically optimal to over supply annual demand by 50% and have 6 hours of storage. So imagine on a global scale average generation climbing from 3 TW to 4.5 TW while installing some 18 TWh of storage. Along this path, 2TWh is actually a huge milestone, marking 10% of ultimate need.
powertoold
Active Member
Lol ugh, only Tesla can make record on every level quarter result in a huge drop.
So where is the going bankrupt argument that sent Tesla to 180?
Tesla did not make a profit, but:
1. had positive cash flow, and all the cash from the new shares, and all the cash they had in Q1, most cash ever
2. there is not a demand problem as Q3 sales are ahead of Q2 and they lowered the price of their top end models (making a Tesla reach on top of a Tesla reach possible, who won’t go to a P3D- from a 3SR+?)
3. lowered prices are because manufacturing cost reductions and battery supply has opened up, so margins stay the same, not a negative for putting FSD cars on the street
4. giant earnings FSD bomb looming. Why would you be long term short when you don’t know when this is going to drop? I can see short term short (day or week), but months or for bankruptcy? There’s 500,000 cars sitting on a $2k-7k upgrade. There won’t be a earnings problem when that happens. And that is just with the current inventory, not with an exponentially growing fleet.
Tesla did not make a profit, but:
1. had positive cash flow, and all the cash from the new shares, and all the cash they had in Q1, most cash ever
2. there is not a demand problem as Q3 sales are ahead of Q2 and they lowered the price of their top end models (making a Tesla reach on top of a Tesla reach possible, who won’t go to a P3D- from a 3SR+?)
3. lowered prices are because manufacturing cost reductions and battery supply has opened up, so margins stay the same, not a negative for putting FSD cars on the street
4. giant earnings FSD bomb looming. Why would you be long term short when you don’t know when this is going to drop? I can see short term short (day or week), but months or for bankruptcy? There’s 500,000 cars sitting on a $2k-7k upgrade. There won’t be a earnings problem when that happens. And that is just with the current inventory, not with an exponentially growing fleet.
He's probably going to launch and grow a business in the battery market, to become a major Tesla partner. Tesla alone cannot build the giga-sized system needed to achieve 2TWh of battery / hour.Best-case scenario for Tesla investors is that JB left due to what Fred's article suggested: coming in less and less to work, potentially burned out - he needs to take a timeout, rest and lose a bit of weight.
Worst-case scenario is that he's going to a Tesla competitor but is required to take a cool-down period of a couple of months until he has bleeding edge Tesla proprietary knowledge. This variant appears less likely if he continues as a Tesla advisor: he'd continue to be privy to private Tesla plans and any cool-down timeout would reset every time he learned about new business plans.
We might know for sure in a couple of months I suspect.
Just like some executive at SpaceX might leave the company to launch some startups in the "Mars market". SpaceX can't do it alone either.
So someone please explain to someone who doesn’t know anything about corporate finance how it works with losses and cash flow. From what I understand they lost 408 million. Ok. But how can they have 600 million more in the piggy bank now than they did last quarter? And if so why care about losses?
Not an owner (but an EV driver) Huge tesla fan.
Thank you.
Not an owner (but an EV driver) Huge tesla fan.
Thank you.
dhrivnak
Active Member
34 years at my last company and I believe the average length of service there is 20 years.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
But with a boss like Elon, and being a multi-multi-multi-millionaire?
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