Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Well I don't know about all detractors, but the cretins on Twitter all claim that Space-X is, guess what, a fraudulent scam - they were *seriously* claiming the rocket landings were faked.

The 200m altitude hop test of Starship, planned next week in broad daylight, live streamed by multiple YouTubers with their own cameras on site, is going to be really hard to explain away by the conspiracy theorists.

 

[uselesslogin]

The 200m altitude hop test of Starship, planned next week in broad daylight, live streamed by multiple YouTubers with their own cameras on site, is going to be really hard to explain away by the conspiracy theorists.

I mean you can see the landings from Cocoa Beach and plenty of people recorded them from there. I think we passed the point of really hard to explain away a long time ago.

 

[heltok]

So will V10 differentiate between HW3 and HW2?

 

[Runarbt]

You mean someone who love driving to the point of spending 100k on them but refuse to spend this money if Tesla never existed? Yeah I would say you are very rare and doesn't apply to most people. So you are not in it to help Tesla's mission..you are in it because you love driving...but felt indifferent to driving all your life except after a Tesla? I mean it's possible but definitely not the type of people Elon is trying to lower the price of Teslas for.

This is me.. couldnt care less about cars, until I got into my first tesla model S. (4x what my previous car cost). Then I became a shareholder.. ;-)

 

[Christine69420]

Why there will be no new S and X soon Tesla has other things to spend money on

Aging Tesla Designs Still Have Spark

AFAIK the Porsche 911 is still a popular car even if it's basic design hasn't changed much since 1963. There has been minor faceifts along the way, new engines, lights and whatnot. But it still looks basically the same.

I think these are not bad footsteps to follow for Tesla. Improve where it matters. Not making the car look totally different every 7th year just to camouflage that it hasn't improved much.

 

[DrJohnM]

I mean you can see the landings from Cocoa Beach and plenty of people recorded them from there. I think we passed the point of really hard to explain away a long time ago.

Simple, just invite all the conspiracy theorists to stand on the X for the next on-land landing. That will solve the tweeting issue one way or another.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

The 200m altitude hop test of Starship, planned next week in broad daylight, live streamed by multiple YouTubers with their own cameras on site, is going to be really hard to explain away by the conspiracy theorists.

Could it just be SpaceX using some super high resolution 3D projection system to trick everyone?

 

[Fact Checking]

Could it just be SpaceX using some super high resolution 3D projection system to trick everyone?

Is contradicted by their financing round: if they had such a system they'd be raking in the billions!

 

[stef]

AFAIK the Porsche 911 is still a popular car even if it's basic design hasn't changed much since 1963. There has been minor faceifts along the way, new engines, lights and whatnot. But it still looks basically the same.

I think these are not bad footsteps to follow for Tesla. Improve where it matters. Not making the car look totally different every 7th year just to camouflage that it hasn't improved much.

Agree. That said, I wish they would do something to explain that to people.
For example, a small fun video like the one they just released about Chess game but on the Raven update would go a long way to get people excited again. I mean that was a damn big improvement, yet people still asking when S & X will be updated ...

 

[schonelucht]

Chalk me up as another “very rare” person. Most I spent before my $82k(now plus $2,500 to upgrade to the 75kWh plus $500 for bioweapon defense mode upgrade) S was $9,000 on a used Toyota Highlander.

And I think this is the reason of the reduced Model S demand. All those young people that end up in your situation from 5 years ago today, don't have to jump to an 80k-100k Model S anymore. They can get the fun and responsible car choice for 50k with a fine Model 3. It might very well be that we'll never see Tesla selling >50k Model S's anymore in a single year.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon is on Twitter again. Now that the pick-up unveiling is within a few month, software 10 in September with mighty new games and other goodies.
Why does he come out with it now; a couple of days after the earnings call and a disasterous couple of days for TSLA?
Does he want to push the stock? I hope he doesn't think that way but the timing is remarkable. Once again, his timing for release of features is almost always off. I just wish he just shut-up and release the features whenever it is ready. The stock will do its thing then.

Booo.

None of the things he's discussing will move the share price substantially. The only thing that will do that is increasing production and margins.

 

[strago13]

I just wish Tesla would make a car I could take from the US to Europe and back again. I am going to have to sell my Tesla and buy an ICE.

 

[KarenRei]

Agree. That said, I wish they would do something to explain that to people.
For example, a small fun video like the one they just released about Chess game but on the Raven update would go a long way to get people excited again. I mean that was a damn big improvement, yet people still asking when S & X will be updated ...

Yeah, I think a video would be a great idea. Maybe splitscreen, where on the left they keep flashing through visible changes that have been made over the years (there've been a LOT of them), while on the right they show different Model S versions over the years drag racing against each other, with each progressive performance version whipping the former.

 

[KarenRei]

And I think this is the reason of the reduced Model S demand. All those young people that end up in your situation from 5 years ago today, don't have to jump to an 80k-100k Model S anymore. They can get the fun and responsible car choice for 50k with a fine Model 3. It might very well be that we'll never see Tesla selling >50k Model S's anymore in a single year.

I disagree. People still buy Porsches even though there's Camrys on the market.

You do however have to grow the EV market to make up for self-cannibalization by cheaper Teslas. Which is a battle that Tesla will face for the next decade. E.g. rather than your high-end vehicles grabbing 30% of a small market, they might get 3% of a large market.

 

[KarenRei]

I just wish Tesla would make a car I could take from the US to Europe and back again. I am going to have to sell my Tesla and buy an ICE.

Why would you buy an ICE? Especially in Europe, where fuel prices average double what they do in the US?

 

[HG Wells]

The problem is there's almost nothing short enough to watch completely before Tesla starts charging you parking by the minute.

Think of the profits !
Those per minute fee's add up quickly !

 

[strago13]

Why would you buy an ICE? Especially in Europe, where fuel prices average double what they do in the US?

Im moving next summer but need a car to get from now until then (our current junker is on its last legs). We already have a Tesla, but we cant bring that with us for a number of reasons so we're left with buying / leasing a new tesla in Europe which we will likely do and shipping an ICE over with us.

 

[KarenRei]

Im moving next summer but need a car to get from now until then (our current junker is on its last legs). We already have a Tesla, but we cant bring that with us for a number of reasons so we're left with buying / leasing a new tesla in Europe which we will likely do and shipping an ICE over with us.

That doesn't explain "why an ICE" rather than an EV, in a continent with high fuel prices, sometimes extra restrictions / fees on ICEs in cities, rather high EV adoption rates, usually good EV incentives, and great EV infrastructure.

 

[ReflexFunds]

And I think this is the reason of the reduced Model S demand. All those young people that end up in your situation from 5 years ago today, don't have to jump to an 80k-100k Model S anymore. They can get the fun and responsible car choice for 50k with a fine Model 3. It might very well be that we'll never see Tesla selling >50k Model S's anymore in a single year.

I think this is one of many reasons for the weaker S/X demand this year, including:

• Model 3 cannibalisation. This is partly due to the easier to reach Tesla/environmental stretch as you mention above. But also due to the preference for smaller cars in Europe, and just general better value for money for most people's needs on the Model 3.
• 2018 demand pull forward from the tax credit changes in US and Holland.
• The Model 3 reservation book was likely a significant source of S&X demand in 2018 as Tesla pushed reservation holders to trade up to S&X rather than waiting for Model 3.
• Much less favourable EV incentive in US and Holland.
• Overall global automarket collapse
• E-tron/I-pace/Taycan competition. There's no doubt this will have had some impact, partly because the Tesla FUD has driven some people to buy far inferior/worse value for money EVs.
  
• Failure to keep all Model S&X tech ahead of the Model 3 - particularly with the max charge rates.
• People waiting for the "refresh", anticipating a switch to 2170 cells (with expectations of higher charge rates and range) and a new interior.
• Increased volume of off lease S/X cars with second hand 100D cars likely competing with new 75D/SR S&X.
• Model Y osbourning on X.
• Removal of the base 75D/SR models from the menu for much of the year.

There are also several positive factors working to counter this though:

• Much better value for money with lower prices and better specs post Raven update.
• Significantly increased Tesla sales force (customer fleet) which should drive better word of mouth awareness of Tesla's products.
• Continued Supercharger and Service centre expansion increasing the addressable market.
• Model 3 will give Tesla the scale to launch in several new countries which were not worth entering for S&X alone.
• Favourable BIK EV incentive upcoming in the UK. Possible improved incentives in California.

The fall in S&X demand caught many people by surprise this year, partly because many people (including me) expected a more significant refresh to S&X in Q1 to counter the credit change/demand pull forward impact, but also because Model S&X sales held up so well in 2H18 despite the huge level of Model 3 sales in the US. This makes the sudden change in 2019 harder to attribute fully to Model 3 cannibalisation.

I think the lower S&X demand (despite much better value for money) is likely a mix of short and long term factors. We should start to see where sales settle over the next 6 months, and I expect Tesla to continue to make upgrades/updates to the S&X over this period as it always does. My guess is we will get back to around 80k annual S&X at the new price points.

What do you think? @Fact Checking @neroden @KarenRei @Doggydogworld @EVNow