Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

So no ASP/FSD monies for Q3 ...

There are still almost 6 weeks left in the quarter...

 

[Stars aligned]

The facts are:
1. Yes, it is delayed from original hint at mid month release.
2. 1.5 weeks ago he suggested early access starting two weeks from then.
3. 4-8 weeks after a early access release sounds reasonable so no reason to believe there have been additional delays since 1.5 weeks ago.

Yes it could be later than that. But saying its delayed to 2020 is no based on fact.

Don't get the fuss about it, the original post said "likely 2020 if you consider Elon time". Probability statement rather than factual, and fair enough, given all the FSD and auto summon history. Even "likely 2021, given..." would be a statement I could support to some extend.

 

[AZRI11]

1 MW solar system on the roof my workplace ( not Walmart) was installed two years ago. A local solar company (not Tesla) did the install. Near the very end ( last day of panel install) solar company let go of almost all of their installers. They were temps. Also, many delays before system was turned on (bad wiring) so I was told, I'm a minion so not all of my questions were answered, but I do know that the temps worked in very harsh conditions (winter in New England) one even went to the hospital after he collapsed on the roof (not off of it) no fires yet we shall see, time will tell.

 

[Beltsbear]

Yeah but are they being sued by Walmart?

Almost as bad. They are being sued by everyone.

 

[dww12]

I see two things that are missing in the Walmart suit. Rooftop surveillance video of the fire starting (any one of the seven will do, and news footage after it started does not count), a fire marshal report stating the cause was electrical and ruling out arson. What business has a fire, has the fire department respond, and does not get a report for the cause? Also why would you ever need to check an individual panel for hot spots with a thermal imager, unless you are checking the wiring joints? And what lawyer thinks calling a thermal imager a temperature “gun” is using the scientific term?

 

[dww12]

“5. Why were multiple Walmart stores located all over the country suddenly catching fire? The answer was obvious and startling: the stores all had Tesla solar panels installed by Tesla on their roofs. At each location, the fire had originated in the Tesla solar panels.”

No, they all had solar panels, unless you had other stores with other solar systems not installed by SC that were not catching fire that proves nothing. Where is your arson report?

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, I think you missed the point of this discussion. At issue is whether the Model 3's new SRPM motor allows higher sustained cruising speeds than the Model S/X with its AC motor's inherent issue of not being able to directly cool the internal rotor. Since the SRPM motor used in the rear of the Model 3 has a steel rotor with no coils or electromagnet, it's rotor doesn't get heatsoaked like an AC motor does.

The confounding variable with the Model 3 AWD/P is that they also used a front AC motor, which does have the same cooling issue as the S/X under sustained high power useage. That's why I suggested repeating the same test with a 'First Production' RWD Model 3, which has a rear SRPM motor only.

Finally, the new 'Raven' S/X now uses a Model 3 SRPM for its front motor, which is why its more efficient when cruising on the highway at steady speeds. So until its going fast enough to require extra power from the read motor as well, the 'Raven' will not suffer from the heat-soaking induced power rollback behaviour displayed by the original AC motor(s) only versions of the cars.

Cheers!

Pedantic mode: They are both AC motors. The newer one is switched-reluctance with permanent magnets, the older induction type.

 

[MP3Mike]

That credit is so small, it’s not even worth a consideration. With PG&E, it’s only $0.034/kWh. I mentioned about this on my post in the other forum. Who gets the credit during the time between cancelling and removing the panels is not mentioned in the available agreement. But, i would think it’s in Tesla’s best interest to remove it as soon as they can to bank the $1,500 fee and re-use those panels in other projects.

Maybe the deal Tesla has with the grid providers is that they get paid from the home owner. (i.e if the home owner used $200 of electricity but only $50 of it came from the grid then Tesla would get $150 of it. (Or maybe some significant percentage of it.)

We can't know the economics of this program without having all the details.

 

[Josuke]

Hi TMC, lurker as of this year and finally jumping in to post for the first time. Just had a couple thoughts I wanted to bounce off yall.

I believe Tesla Solar by itself is a poor business move - however - it will be used strategically to drive demand for its new storage products

-By focusing installs in concentrated areas, energy generation could exceed usage during the day
-Utility has no choice but to purchase a Megapack to take advantage of localized energy generation
-Think Megapacks at substations to store energy within one neighborhood
-More energy driven to Tesla storage allows revenues through energy sales via Autobidder (see Megapack Blog)
-One Megapack sale could lesson the cash load required for a neighborhood of panels

Shifting topics…

I believe Model S/X sales drop off is because Tesla actually is production limited due to lack of 18650 cells.

-Panasonic is converting its Japan based 9Gwh production capacity of 18650 cells to 2190 (see: Panasonic could update Japan plant for upgraded Tesla battery production: source)
-Tesla never announced cell supply for China but still somehow plans to produce 3000 M3/week
-3000 M3/week * 13 weeks * 55kwh * 4 quarters = 8.58Gwh/year
-Next gen Model S/X would use Maxwell batteries, hence 400 mile range *soon*
-MS/X sales would get destroyed if the dots were connected, hence no info on China battery supplies plus a step down in sales

Thoughts?

 

[brian45011]

I figure Tesla has side deals with the named utilities, otherwise why restrict it to just those 20? So they get paid something as long as the system is on the roof. Almost no one will pay $1500 for removal. The tax credit drops from 30% now to 26% next year and 22% in 2021. That's manageable. If it truly goes away in 2022 the program will end, but by then President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal will be in place

Panasonic will continue selling GF2 output to others. There's a 30% tariff on imports, so they can find customers at reasonable prices.

Does Tesla get a cut on Panasonic's sales to 3rd parties?

 

[Foghat]

Sorry but minimizing this is just wrong. Just 1.5% of installs? They caught fire.

Tesla has de-energized 240 wallmart installations. Solar city continues to be the gift that keeps on giving.

I am not sure what the worst part is, the fires or Tesla not taking care of them. This should not have been a lawsuit. Tesla should have paid out or got insurance to do it. Walmart does not even appear to be asking for anything but actual damage.

They should have gone into red alert mode at some point and paid to redo these installs properly before it turned into 7 fires.

I’m not one to pitch fork and tiki torch Tesla Energy because the same media outlets that knowingly trash and misrepresent Tesla on a daily basis, put out Walmart case filing without Tesla statement or rebuttal.

I know some here didn’t like the Tesla acquisition of solarcity and jump on the desk when things like this come out in the news, just as the same haters in the press do.

Bias aside, this needs perspective as does car fires compared to Tesla fires, etc.

To pound the ground and make this out to be he end of the world as we know it, is no different then the FUD we despise on daily.

 

[EVNow]

You know Elon essentially promised the linch pin of V10 already in October 2018 as 4 to 6 week out? What facts do you have that an Elon promise for 4-8 weeks is not in 2020?

Linch pin of V10 <> enh summon.

It just got so delayed, it is now coming with V10. The biggest thing is actually recognition of traffic lights & signals.

 

[JRP3]

I’m not one to pitch fork and tiki torch Tesla Energy because the same media outlets that knowingly trash and misrepresent Tesla on a daily basis, put out Walmart case filing without Tesla statement or rebuttal.

I know some here didn’t like the Tesla acquisition of solarcity and jump on the desk when things like this come out in the news, just as the same haters in the press do.

Bias aside, this needs perspective as does car fires compared to Tesla fires, etc.

To pound the ground and make this out to be he end of the world as we know it, is no different then the FUD we despise on daily.

This isn't daily FUD from shorty airforce, this is a major company suing Tesla for incompetence. Can you cite anything else on the same level?

 

[Bo Blutz]

That Solar City sure was a great acquisition.

 

[brian45011]

Sorry but minimizing this is just wrong. Just 1.5% of installs? They caught fire.

Tesla has de-energized 240 wallmart installations. Solar city continues to be the gift that keeps on giving.

I am not sure what the worst part is, the fires or Tesla not taking care of them. This should not have been a lawsuit. Tesla should have paid out or got insurance to do it. Walmart does not even appear to be asking for anything but actual damage.

They should have gone into red alert mode at some point and paid to redo these installs properly before it turned into 7 fires.

Tesla self insures it's product liability exposures.

 

[StealthP3D]

A lot of the people I know hate Walmart. This could get some of those people interested in Tesla Solar just for being sued by Walmart. Maybe it is different elsewhere but even a priest once told me to not go near Walmart at night as that's where all the drug dealers are and shootings have happened in their parking lot.

I can confirm that I've run into a lot of people who absolutely will not go to Walmart and these same people are the prime demographic for Tesla Solar.

If it turns out that this lawsuit is designed primarily to be bad publicity for Tesla moreso than a reasonable way to resolve a business disagreement then I think a boycott of Walmart is in order.

 

[brian45011]

I figure Tesla has side deals with the named utilities, otherwise why restrict it to just those 20? .

Previously approved tariffs. Bi-lateral side deals involving commercial terms for energy pricing are frowned upon by PUCs.

 

[madodel]

I can confirm that I've run into a lot of people who absolutely will not go to Walmart and these same people are the prime demographic for Tesla Solar.

If it turns out that this lawsuit is designed primarily to be bad publicity for Tesla moreso than a reasonable way to resolve a business disagreement then I think a boycott of Walmart is in order.

I already boycott Walmart so boycotting them would be easy for me but I don't think they'd notice it. They've destroyed so many local businesses. Like Amazon, if you don't have some kind of niche sales products they undercut whatever price you can survive on. But I guess I'm preaching to the choir here.

 

[Foghat]

This isn't daily FUD from shorty airforce, this is a major company suing Tesla for incompetence. Can you cite anything else on the same level?

The FUD is making this out to be something bigger then it is to scare readers/viewers against Tesla Energy.

Like I’ve said before, Tesla has 100s of thousands of solar customers that produce over 1Gwh+ of energy per day.

On the leases, they have reported in the past near 100% on time payments from all customers dating back 10 years while systems have produced consistently at or over contracted production levels.

Bottomline, solar business is significantly consistent and dependable and has over a decade of data to support it.

Tesla/solarcity has installed for the US military, major home building companies, media companies, and many other Fortune 500 companies. Walmart has been a customer for 8 or so years I believe as well.

Again, before I pitch fork with the haters, I’m going to have to see a little more then this.

If Tesla is deemed at fault, then they must be held responsible and pay damages. But it’s not indicative of what they have done in the solar business as a whole and he data backs it up.

 

[mongo]

Don't get the fuss about it, the original post said "likely 2020 if you consider Elon time". Probability statement rather than factual, and fair enough, given all the FSD and auto summon history. Even "likely 2021, given..." would be a statement I could support to some extend.

That was the edited 15 minute later version. Check the early replies to see the original post.

Pedantic mode: They are both AC motors. The newer one is switched-reluctance with permanent magnets, the older induction type.

Double pedantic: The drive waveform is likely not a sinusoid. AC induction types must have a sinusoidal AC field to work. BLDC motors are three phase commutated also, but are not AC.(can be trapezoidal drive)

Also, (going to the post you replied to) the rotor is coaxially cooled, however on an AC induction motor, the rotor has a chunk of current flowing through it to generate the field the stator acts against, that's what heats it up.