Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[geneclean55]

Once again, I would caution against reading too much into the UK numbers for now.

In the table that @KarenRei linked above, yellow means it is an estimate. The UK is normally rather late in publishing the official numbers, (up to 2 quarters late actually), so what we do is estimate. There is a car importers` association site (SMMT) which lists registrations sooner, but does not break out Tesla - it is included in the "other" figure. @Troy & @hobbes (sounds like a cop show, lol) have put together an algorithm, that estimates how much Model S and Model X share is from this "other", based on the ratio of known actual Tesla registration from same month last year and their actual share of "other" at that time.

This worked very well in the past: as I recall we found we had 95%+ accuracy when we added in the actual data as it became available. However, we haven`t had official Model 3 numbers yet since deliveries started in the UK, so the math could be more off than usual right now as there is no official data to base it on. Even as the first few months` official data comes in later this year, the first shipments were probably impacted by unknown factors like RHD production capacity, pre-order numbers, take rate on the first models that were made available, etc.

So be careful with the "2000+ for the UK alone" comments.

Couple points on this.
The Telegraph article today on August model 3 sales in UK stated that Tesla specifically asked to be listed as "other" in the smmt motoring org data files. So when SMMT listed the top 10 August sales by model they were obliged to list the model 3 as "other". Quite comical. But the point being that you cant list the brand total as 2082 (or do some weird combination of different unlisted brands), as that list is specifically by model. Tesla never had a particular model that made it into the top 10 model sales list before. So @hobbes and others never had access to this data point previously.

 

[mrmage]

“Speed-wise, the numbers are staggering. The Turbo S version of the Taycan, which carries a price tag approaching $200,000, accelerates from zero to 62 mph in 2.8 seconds, with a range said to be up to 257 miles. Top speed comes in at 161 mph.

The Tesla Model S Performance, by comparison, is a bit more affordable, starting at under $100,000 before incentives, and goes from zero to 60 in 2.4 seconds.”

This puzzling excerpt from a marketwatch article is representative of many I’ve read. Since when do reviewers compare anything with a 2x price difference, and not be astonished when the less expensive one has superior specs?

Well, we all know about FUD, but consumers will vote with their pocketbooks. The real competition is between the $150k Taycan and either the performance S or 3. 200k is too much for the vast majority.

Those looking at a $150k Porsche will need to think twice about :

1. Getting thrashed by a S that’s 2/3 the price, 20% faster, with 50% more range.
2. Getting similar performance as a 3 that’s 1/3 the price, only 6% slower, with 20% more range

Not saying no one will buy the Taycan, but it validates the value Tesla brings. Because Porsche knows how to make cars, the stark comparison should increase demand for Teslas as people on the fence see that nothing else within the general price point comes close to the 3 and S.

 

[LN1_Casey]

The Taycan may even be counterproductive to make people consider a BEV. The narrative they are too expensive is confirmed now and many will claim this to be a justification to buy a Diesel again.

Eh, I disagree. No one looks at a Porsche and think "bargan deal." It's not Nissan, or Toyota. People think "expensive" when they look at the brand, the entry level of the real "rich person's car."

Porsche had a window of opportunity but what we have seen is that the R&D department I had highest hopes with to be able to lift a decent BEV failed in my perspective.

Now, while I don't think people will look at the car and think "that's an expensive porsche," I DO think that people who buy such expensive cars will not pay the same for less. I think Porsche spent a lot of money for a poor showing of a product, and it won't be in any way a break out vehicle for them, and it probably will only have luke warm sales. Probably not enough to justify the R&D $$ they dumped into the vehicle, but maybe they didn't ever intend it to be.

I think that Porsche was too entrenched to make a decent EV, and so made a mediocre one to 'jump on the bandwagon.' If they had made a Roadster-esque vehicle for the current cost (all the additions, so close to $200k) then they'd have profited a lot more, even if only by brand association. "Porsche's new car is amazing!" which reflects upon the entire brand rather than "Porsche's electric new car is decent." which only covers the new car.

 

[Cyrusis]

Tesla Q3 (July + August) total US vehicle sales estimates over same period in Q2.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Are we going to have another "asterisk" thread?
Porsche battery capacity mentioned in the media (presumably from the Porsche reveal media kits) is about 10 percent higher than actual usable capacity: 93.4 kWh vs. 83.7 kWh usable.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Are we going to have another "asterisk" thread?
Porsche battery capacity mentioned in the media (presumably from the Porsche reveal media kits) is about 10 percent higher than actual usable capacity: 93.4 kWh vs. 83.7 kWh usable.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

That's actually a good thing - it reduces the energy consumption per unit distance. E.g. it changes the Wh/km from "ROFL" to merely "LOL".

 

[EVNow]

Matthías can say whatever he wants, but Germany is trending upwards QoQ.

Here is my response to Matthias.

Seems to me this is a lagging indicator. It is correctly showing that Q2 Germany numbers are lower than Q1 (2613 vs 3596).

Is there any data on distribution of registration by # of days after delivery ?​

 

[FreqFlyer]

I see this car being very successful for no other reason it gives the wealthy a Tesla S alternative. Someone can show his green credentials without buying the same car his or her neighbors have. Oh, and one more thing, its A FREAKING PORSCHE!!!!

Porsche sells 35K 911s a year around the world in many more markets than Tesla is in now. Selling 40K Taycans will not be a problem.

The upside to Tesla fans with the slew of luxury EVs about to crowd the market, Tesla will probably soon update the S/X interiors and the rumored front and rear fascia update.

 

[humbaba]

In terms of Tesla's growing share of the market and what is happening to other makers, someone (sorry, I forget who) posted earlier that BMW had growth in the US (all that follows is for the US market only). So I looked up the numbers and... its deceptive. BMW's market share peaked in 2014 at 2.06% and has been in decline ever since. Taking a particular data point, June 2019 was 31.627 compared to June 2018 at 29.407 (+7.5%) and July 2019 was 23.015 compared to July 2018 at 21.982 (+4.7%).

But what that is missing is that July 2016 was 25.777, so a 12% drop.

Or look at their yearly numbers and 2015 was the highest units, but the market share was already declining so the automotive market was still growing. But until last year the unit count dropped YoY giving 2015 to 2018 an ~11.2% decline in production while only seeing a ~10.6% decline in market share. So volume is dropping but so is the pie and their ranking is consequently better than it otherwise would be. In a healthy, growing market they would clearly be in trouble, but the general decline helps to mask this.

Consider Mercedes (I think that was another manufacturer that was asked about) and their peak market share was longer lived: 2013 to 2017 with a dip last year. Until July, YoY 2019 looked even worse than 2018 and is currently at -4% YTD. Historically, their best months have been March to May and October to December (it doesn't really seem to follow the "end of quarter surge" seen with Tesla). Unless the second half of 2019 changes direction the decline in Mercedes volume and market share will continue.

Compare this to Tesla. Far from peaking in 2014, Tesla was just getting started with 0.11% market share. By 2016 it had more than doubled and last year it exceeded 1% for a 280% YoY growth. In fact, each year has seen sequential growth.

Yes, people here are well aware of Tesla's growth. But when a legacy manufacturer's numbers are referenced you have to have the same awareness of their past. Yes, BMW may be showing signs of recovery in the US compared to their decline -- but so far it isn't clear whether it is just slowing the decline or actually equalizing. And Mercedes looks to be at the start of their decline.

I didn't see an easy way to compare all brands to see who, other than Tesla, is growing market share. Toyota looks healthy (though they did see a decline last year, as did Honda, GMC and Ford). All data is from US Car Sales Data - carsalesbase.com

 

[dww12]

The i8 is a 2+2 2 door sports car.

Taycan is a 5 passenger four door car.

Like saying Ferrari 488 Spider is sexier than Model 3.

Because if the back doors were not there you would break your ankle getting in. I want to see the clown car pic with 5 adult passengers.

 

[humbaba]

That's actually a good thing - it reduces the energy consumption per unit distance. E.g. it changes the Wh/km from "ROFL" to merely "LOL".

Yeah, I guess. Is 26.0kWh/100km (~418Wh/mile) really only "LOL"? I find it rather godawful. (Source is upthread)

[edit: even the i-pace gets 416Wh/mile Efficiency Matters And That's Where The Jaguar I-Pace Falters]
[edit2: and the Taycan Turbo S is even worse with ~434Wh/mile. Ugh!]

 

[samppa]

Eh, I disagree. No one looks at a Porsche and think "bargan deal." It's not Nissan, or Toyota. People think "expensive" when they look at the brand, the entry level of the real "rich person's car."



Now, while I don't think people will look at the car and think "that's an expensive porsche," I DO think that people who buy such expensive cars will not pay the same for less. I think Porsche spent a lot of money for a poor showing of a product, and it won't be in any way a break out vehicle for them, and it probably will only have luke warm sales. Probably not enough to justify the R&D $$ they dumped into the vehicle, but maybe they didn't ever intend it to be.

I think that Porsche was too entrenched to make a decent EV, and so made a mediocre one to 'jump on the bandwagon.' If they had made a Roadster-esque vehicle for the current cost (all the additions, so close to $200k) then they'd have profited a lot more, even if only by brand association. "Porsche's new car is amazing!" which reflects upon the entire brand rather than "Porsche's electric new car is decent." which only covers the new car.

I doubt this. I really think this was just the best they could do. Even at this price point. Making sg as good as Tesla has proven to be quite difficult.

 

[ggr]

2082 (Model 3s alone!) is massive. That's "+2082 QoQ", since there were zero deliveries in May. No wonder they've been robbing the US supply to get an extra ship or two to Europe via Philly this quarter.

I know what you mean, but remember that UK and US cars are not interchangeable since the steering wheel is on the other side (and other homologation changes).

 

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, I guess. Is 26.0kWh/100km (~418Wh/mile) really only "LOL"? I find it rather godawful. (Source is upthread)

[edit: even the i-pace gets 416Wh/mile Efficiency Matters And That's Where The Jaguar I-Pace Falters]
[edit2: and the Taycan Turbo S is even worse with ~434Wh/mile. Ugh!]

Just as a quick comparison, our Raven 7-seater X is averaging 299 Wh/mi over its first ~5,000 miles. So yes, 400+ for a sleek speedmobile is terrible.

 

[204EV]

Wait if it is 26KWh /100 and the only 83.7kwh That means if you stay in the safe range 20-80% and drive Perfect you only get 193 km.(120mi)

In Canadian winter that is approx 115km(72mi)

 

[KarenRei]

I know what you mean, but remember that UK and US cars are not interchangeable since the steering wheel is on the other side (and other homologation changes).

Production is not unlimited. Tesla does have to choose markets to produce for, and they chose to make more for the EU, at the cost of US wait times.

Indeed, this clearly wasn't some last-minute decision, because - as you note - US cars are not EU-LHD cars are not EU-RHD cars. This strategy was clearly planned (although US demand may have turned out to be higher than expected).

 

[SpaceCash]

$224.20 secured

 

[LN1_Casey]

$224.20 secured

I hope y'all appreciate this. I put in a order in for 221 this morning, so of course it ignores normal MMD and goes clearly green.

I don't care if there is trade talk between US/China again, obviously it's my pending purchase that has caused this rise.

 

[hobbes]

Too optimistic with two new markets filling out their backlog?

I was talking about Europe only. The only new market there is the UK, which already had deliveries in July. So I think my method of extrapolating the July (complete including UK)+August (partly) to the whole of the quarter for a conservative estimate and adding 1000 for the bull case was sensible.

However: Today we got hard numbers and boy, was I wrong - seems like Model 3 deliveries in UK picked way up. July: 440, August: 2082 ! (Update: I realize I´m late to the party...) Disclaimer: Model 3 is not listed by its name in the data from SMMT, but called "other". But the other imports also listed for the brands is up accordingly, and that is what we have been using successfully for estmating Tesla numbers for a while.

Tesla Model 3 was August's third best-selling car

 

[Stars aligned]

Hello there gap up.

While it's true for the market, it's unfortunately not for Tesla. But we will get there, a question of time.

OT: how times change... once it was reason to celebrate when a deal was made. With the very master dealmaker and serial bankrupter in charge, it's already seen as a success when the other party is willing to talk to him.