Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

No way they hit 100k deliveries. Literally zero chance.

I got the joke mule. Don't worry, I got it .

 

[KSilver2000]

I don't remember. Did it talk about specific delivery numbers like this current leak?

No specific delivery numbers. But, the following was part of the email. And from this I remember people inferring it to be a positive ER.

What has made this particularly difficult is that Europe and China are simultaneously experiencing the same massive increase in delivery volume that North America experienced last year. In some locations, the delivery rate is over 600% higher than its previous peak! This was further exacerbated by supplier shortages of EU spec components and a sticker printing error on our part in China that were only resolved in the past few weeks.

Edit: was there another email?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the US will turn out to have the slowest-to-adopt curve in terms of % capable of buying Teslas vs actual sales by country.

Tesla Pickup coming. Hold yer breath (and watch for Battery Day).

P.S. 4.78m Shares traded in the 90 min elapse since the news. Shortzes capping SP @ $240 over last 70 min. like a momma bear

EDIT: 5.63m shares traded in 2 hrs since 13:12 ET...

• this is gonna be an expensive day for Bozz Shortz
• I expect Non-FINRA % of shares sold to be > 67%
• (indicating significant manipulation by MMs ie:capping)
• will update after 17:50 hrs ET

 

[sparcs]

Yes target for GF3 is like 3K/week. But GF3 Model Y will enter China Market almost in tandem with US ...

not according to Tesla:

Model Y production is expected to begin in late 2020 for North America, and in early 2021 for Europe and China. Standard Range production is expected to begin in early 2021 for North America, and in early 2022 for Europe and China.

Early 2021 for China is pretty vague and that means premium versions of Model Y shipped from the US to China. Tandem production is not likely for standard range Model Y produced out of GF3 either since it says Early 2022 which is a whole year difference between USA and China.

 

[deffu]

Of course, China gets it. Is it safe to say that China doesn't have the same Media influence from big oil? ... with false stories removed and likely rare (assumptions here). So then people are getting more of the truth in China as a result, if so. We all know it's the best car on earth, and so does China, I love this!

Anyone seen a <duck hunter> in China? I think the US will turn out to have the slowest-to-adopt curve in terms of % capable of buying Teslas vs actual sales by country. It would appear the Scandinavian countries are leading so far in this "capable growth" curve.

I think tesla is not listed in China so no established financial interests to go against it. the traditional media are owned by the gov so are the big oil companies. the gov is more interested in coercing antigov sentiments and moving to new energy is a priority. So I dont see attacks coming in that front. however, there is a remote possibility of anti-us sentiments rising when the trade war gets super nasty.
As for the new media, I believe Chinese individuals enjoy more freedom there. but in general, Chinese tend to chase cool/social status signaling gadgets/technologies more than their us counterpart. Look at the success of appl in China.

 

[Pezpunk]

No way they hit 100k deliveries. Literally zero chance.

seriously. such a round number? so unlikely.

 

[elasalle]

not according to Tesla:



Early 2021 for China is pretty vague and that could only mean premium versions of Model Y shipped from the US to China. Not likely for standard range Model Y in China either since it says Early 2022.

"almost" -- no new factory to be built. Sure 6-8 mths lag after US Standard will be there.

 

[SGordB]

Yahoo Finance finally got the news (via Bloomberg, sourcing from Electrek). As recently as 45 minutes ago, Google News was pretty clueless too. The downside of having algorithms for editors.

 

[Unpilot]

That cap at 240...she gunna break soon.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As nice as it is to see the rise today, we're still down a couple percentage points from the high on Monday and down ever more from the high on Friday before it was pushed down. The bears/shorts pretty much succeeded at limiting the rally from production numbers to not go above 250/share. There may still be more of a rally in the next hour or tomorrow but the fact is this rally should have been happening from 245/share level, not 228/share.

If you can't tell, I'm still bitter about what happened this week

 

[humbaba]

I love Claudia Assis at MarketWatch, she never fails to find the cloud of the silver lining.

Some analysts see a better-than-expected sales period for Tesla TSLA, +5.11%, but sentiment on the stock continues to be lukewarm on concerns that the company’s sales targets for the year are unattainable.

When she wrote that, 2:40PM ET, the stock had been +5% for an hour or so. But stock sentiment was lukewarm. Riiiiight.

Perhaps most telling is the reminder that $TSLA is a bad investment:

Tesla shares have lost 31% this year, contrasting with gains of 19% and 15% for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, -0.18%

Tesla’s third-quarter sales seen on the rise

 

[JRP3]

I actually did not find it all at fair when he compared to Tesla. He basically listed every single Porsche advantage, he did not mention the range is about the same as the SR plus, never mind the Model S 100D. When it started charging much slower than it should have, and did nothing like 5% to 80% in 22 1/2 minutes, he just glossed over it.

Once again, he only talks in terms of charging power, and not in terms of kilometers or miles gained per minute. Plus, he glossed over the extreme massive price difference. And no mention of Autopilot (deal killer for me, and I love the Taycan).

He also said Model 3 is smaller so in a different class. But in actuality only the exterior is smaller, it’s just as big or bigger in the interior. Nobody wants a vehicle bigger on the outside and smaller on the inside!

I agree on all points, but I thought it was a good review of the Taycan on it's own.

 

[Tslynk67]

seriously. such a round number? so unlikely.

Would be so funny if it is exactly 100.000, $TSLAQ would totally loose their poo

 

[JRP3]

I love Claudia Assis at MarketWatch, she never fails to find the cloud of the silver lining.

Cloudia.

 

[SpaceCash]

As nice as it is to see the rise today, we're still down a couple percentage points from the high on Monday and down ever more from the high on Friday before it was pushed down. The bears/shorts pretty much succeeded at limiting the rally from production numbers to not go above 250/share. There may still be more of a rally in the next hour or tomorrow but the fact is this rally should have been happening from 245/share level, not 228/share.

If you can't tell, I'm still bitter about what happened this week

I get you but this is just how TSLA rolls, and the reason I switched from an options player to an accumulator

 

[mrdoubleb]

From the Jalopnik article:



This is the beguiling I've mentioned before that should be considered when reading reviews.

https://jalopnik.com/the-electric-2020-porsche-taycan-what-we-learned-over-1838333674

oh come on, that's not even important. You know what makes the difference? Access. Does Jalopnik want access to new cars before the premier, shoot a review and release it 60 seconds after the NDA is lifted, or would it prefer writing an article about other magazines' reviews? 10k clicks vs 100k clicks. No biggie. (Speaking from experience...)

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not any fuel type...

Atoms, baby!!!
See “Tom Swift and his Triphibian Atomicar”!

 

[mrdoubleb]

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Elon sandbag the numbers a bit in his Q2 email leak? If so, its possible 100k is very likely and over 100k is probable.

Even if they don't hit 100k but beat Q2 numbers, it is still a significant accomplishment.

Given the trends we've seen in Europe and the US, plus the news of China and RHD deliveries around the globe... I would be seriously surprised with anything less than +10% over Q2 deliveries. The only way that's possible is if they really really f-up the end of quarter push. As happy as I am for that ship that just reached the UK today, once again, cutting it a little too close for my taste.

 

[ReflexFunds]

If Tesla does hit 100k deliveries, what production do people think this corresponds to?
Perhaps around 18k S&X and 82k Model 3?

In Q2 Tesla produced 14.5k S&X and 72.5k Model 3. They likely finished Q2 with around 9k S&X inventory and 15k Model 3 inventory (including in-transit cars which they will no longer report separately)
I doubt Tesla had much room to further reduce inventory in Q3 (perhaps some reduction in China plus some S&X reduction as Ravens were delivered). I also haven't heard anything about Tesla reintroducing a second shift for S&X.

It looks like a large step up in production this quarter and given the high orders rate it seems production remains the bottleneck to sales.

 

[sundaymorning]

Maybe these are the cars TeslaQ said were being dropped somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic. In an incredible turn of events they are now raising them and selling them to unsuspecting customers. #rustgate

No no no. TSLAQ fans were stating Elon shot then out of space to get rid of the excess inventory.