Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Cant believe the price is being pushed down again. its totally insane. Who the hell would sell today?

It's just morning nonsense. The manipulation is predictable.

 

[HG Wells]

Cant believe the price is being pushed down again. its totally insane. Who the hell would sell today?

Shorts that think it will be a fail if Tesla sold less than 100K.
With ships docking tomorrow there must be cars already made for Europe.
Shorts think this means they could not have delivered 100K.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Cant believe the price is being pushed down again. its totally insane. Who the hell would sell today?

Shorts.

 

[JusRelax]

Cant believe the price is being pushed down again. its totally insane. Who the hell would sell today?

I would... if the stock price were $4200.

 

[EVNow]

A gauge of U.S. manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed the sector contracted to the lowest level in more than 10 years in September.
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Tariffs were supposed to increase manufacturing - not decrease it.

 

[X Fan]

Fully agree with Karen om Q3 and Q4. I would just add two thoughts to this.

1, For the sake of perspective, let`s remember that Tesla`s 2019 target is 360-400k vehicles. They have delivered close to 160k in H1 of the year and traditionally H2 is stronger. If they did a 100k in Q3 (and the first two months fo the quarter did indicate a 10% growth over Q2, which would bring us to ~105k), they only need a similar Q4 to reach the low end of the guidance. This should not be difficult at all, In fact, unless the world economy collapses in Q4 (higher than zero chance...) we should end up somewhere in the middle of the range even without GF3. Anything from GF3 will just be gravy.

2, When considering S/X numbers, it is important to keep in mind, that the 100k a year number was established with a much broader portfolio in the low end with the 75D (and even 75 RWD) models. Bang for buck, of course the current LR (100D) models are much better than the old SR (75) was, but still, overall the entry price barrier has been raised. Also, work has been reduced to 1 extended shift so it`s not like they are still paying for 3 shifts with a ~30-35% drop in volume. While we seem super excited about a possible refresh and sales figures for these cars, it seems to me Elon`s tone when he addresses the issue is that the S and the X are not too high on their list of worries. Plaid should add back the a very lucrative high end ~$150k models, while still being far enough from Roadster 2021 prices and performance to avoid much cross shopping.

There was so much angst earlier this year re: Elon's out of control postings & foolhardy guidance.

Well, with China's factory finished early and now producing, Q3's robust production and a release of V10 I am ecstatic that Tesla/Elon is maturing as a company, Plus, I'm getting more confident that Model Y will be early.

Now, he just needs to improve service.....

 

[Pezpunk]

Well, with China's factory finished early and now producing, Q3's robust production and a release of V10 I am ecstatic that Tesla/Elon is maturing as a company, Plus, I'm getting more confident that Model Y will be early.

uhhh what evidence is there that the China factory is finished or currently producing production vehicles, or that the Model Y will be early?

 

[Tslynk67]

Cant believe the price is being pushed down again. its totally insane. Who the hell would sell today?

Weakest US manufacturing data for 10 years just been released. Of course Tesla's going in the opposite direction, but shorty can still use the opportunity to hammer it down...

 

[X Fan]

A gauge of U.S. manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed the sector contracted to the lowest level in more than 10 years in September.
​

Tariffs were supposed to increase manufacturing - not decrease it.

It takes time to reverse manufacturing domiciles.....but, the bigger issue is the strong $ which has remained strong for a multitude of reasons including the fact that the US is now producing tremendous amounts of oil/gas.

btw: Au found that out years ago that their burgeoning export of raw materials killed their domestic manufacturing business through a too strong Au $.

 

[Rarity]

Nice. Schwab is ENDING commission on stock trades. Fidelity et. al will probably follow

Nothing in this world is free. Schwab's actions probably mean that they are able to monetize the trade better by selling information on it at a higher price to front-runners.

 

[X Fan]

uhhh what evidence is there that the China factory is finished or currently producing production vehicles, or that the Model Y will be early?

First run in Q3; enhanced production has been reported to start in 2 weeks. This is much earlier than the 2020 time period that most folks had prognosticated.

Re: Y....my view. If you want to be a pessimist go for it....but, don't shed on my parade.

 

[dww12]

uhhh what evidence is there that the China factory is finished or currently producing production vehicles, or that the Model Y will be early?

I think there was a quote from the guy suppling glass said that production was starting on the 14th.

 

[AlexS]

uhhh what evidence is there that the China factory is finished or currently producing production vehicles, or that the Model Y will be early?

Production milestone for Tesla in Lingang

 

[RoadsterPlease]

$tsla opening a lot stronger than the Nasdaq today, a lot of potential for the week!

 

[Pezpunk]

$tsla opening a lot stronger than the Nasdaq today, a lot of potential for the week!

right now is just noise. delivery/production numbers are going to dictate the week's action.

 

[VValleyEV]

In my experience, the Yahoo conversaton/comments are a cess-pool of nut-cases that makes Twitter look like a kindergarten.

You have to remember that most of these comments are from paid trolls, oil-industry employees, Russians, etc.

Still hard to wrap my head around the idea of paid trolling on social media sites, especially going to all that trouble to post dim-witted broadsides about electric vehicles. I get it, I just have that “weird times we live in” feeling.

 

[humbaba]

So Market Watch has been habitually negative on Tesla. Sure, it has varied and even Claudia Assis once found it in her heart to not add a negative spin to a Tesla story. But the overall sentiment there is definitely bearish. So when they posted an EV article I almost gave it a miss. But:

• the picture at top of article is a Model S at a Tesla supercharger
• they say to focus on range (hmm... I wonder which EVs have the best range?)
• make sure charging infrastructure is in place (hmm... I wonder which EVs have the best supporting infrastructure?)
• check out incentives
• make sure you know the cost of home charging that suits your needs
• keep an eye on warranty (here they call out Leaf and Bolt as having exceptional warranty though it isn't better than mine)
• it continues the slide by saying eventually there will be electric SUVs (is the Model X considered a CUV?). In any case it is hard to take them seriously when they describe the Model 3 as "compact" when it is bigger than any sedan I've owned
  
• consider a hybrid instead (seriously? crappy battery and maintenance of an ICE?)

Although they don't omit Tesla, they don't mention them in the first two points when it would be obvious, then act like the Leaf and Bolt have better warranties than the others. The article cites "8-year/100,000 [mile]" for them while my warranty is 8 years or 120,000 miles.

Its rather like the sentiment started pro-Tesla (though unwilling to outright state it) and ends with Leaf or Nissan if you have to have an EV, but you would be better off with a hybrid. A more careful attempt to guide readers away from Tesla.

7 tips for buying your first electric vehicle

 

[kbM3]

The problem is the square hatchback shape causing a greatly increased drag coefficient... and the Smart makes it worse by being tall, and not long at all - more frontal area and less length to reduce the drag coefficient is a bad recipe.

The Hyundai Ioniq Electric and the Toyota Prius Prime (in charge depleting mode) both slightly beat the Model 3 on efficiency, but with much smaller batteries (28 kWh and 8.8 kWh respectively, IIRC), and as a result, much shorter all-electric range (although the Prius Prime is a PHEV and gets long range from its ICE). And, they both have streamlined fastback shapes like the Model 3. Nothing with an all-electric range range anywhere close to a Model 3 has efficiency anywhere close, though.

In addition to more range, Model 3 has far better performance than Ioniq and Prius. It is just mind boggling it is nearly as efficient!

 

[kbM3]

Great interview by Everyday Astronaut with Elon.

Very technical for space nerds.

However the segment at 3:20 about company hierarchies, department inefficiencies, obviously applies to Tesla and is a MUST WATCH.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still hard to wrap my head around the idea of paid trolling on social media sites, especially going to all that trouble to post dim-witted broadsides about electric vehicles. I get it, I just have that “weird times we live in” feeling.

Agreed, but there's a lot of money and power at stake. People don't care about the future, they care about a few $$ in their pockets now.

I guess they don't have families ether, or they might have a bit more conscience.