Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Incidentally I posted about this in the finance thread shortly before you wrote that, here's a repost:


I think there's an increasing chance that Tesla will be able to surprise us positively in Q4 again:

• Q4 European deliveries are intriguingly high so far, per the graph posted by @KarenRei:
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• This suggests (but doesn't prove) a substantially higher early quarter production rate in Fremont compared to Q3. Just 35 days into Q4 Tesla started delivering at late-Q3 rates (!).
• This graph by @JustMe shows record Q4 units underway to Europe via ships:
• 
  
  
• The rate is significantly beyond any previous quarter: 30-40% higher than Q2, if the "ship loading hours" method is accurate.
• We still don't have an answer to the mystery production increase leak from Jerome, back in July: “While we can’t be too specific in this email, I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments.”
• Q3 Model 3 production was 79k, up from 72k in Q2 - which I don't think matches the tone of Jerome's email.
• There's the leak to Cleantechnica about 7,000 excess Q3 battery packs sent to China:
• Tesla Gigafactory 3 Has ~7,000 Battery Packs In Stock For Chinese Model 3 Production, Will Use LG Chem Cells In 2020 | CleanTechnica
• U.S. order book appears to be almost 100% full in Q4 already, according to Tesla's own "weeks of delivery" estimates. (Which tend to lag true demand.)
• EU order book has closed for Q4 deliveries yesterday: most configs are for February 2020 delivery only.
• Inventory levels are very low in the U.S., to the extent Tesla allows us to see them.
• The 10-Q has shown a significant increase in non-finished goods inventory. Part of it could be battery packs for GF3 - but maybe they stockpiled parts for Fremont as well, for a full quarter demonstration of maximum sustained production rates?

Those 5-8 independent pieces of data/clues point towards a skillfully masked attempt by Tesla to hit the ball out of the ballpark in Q4: they might have sandbagged Q3 production and deliveries to maximize Q4 results.

If they do then even Q2 margins would be enough for record Q4 revenue and record GAAP profits.

And here's a final mystery: in their Q4 report Tesla updated the 360k-400k 2019 deliveries guidance range to 360k only. Everyone, including me, interpreted this as an admission that they cannot hit 400k and can barely hit 360k in the best of cases.

But there's another possible explanation for why they removed the 400k upper guidance ...

Anyway, calling Q4 a record quarter at this point is premature I suspect (the rates of ships could slow down, U.S. deliveries could be weaker, etc.), but the evidence so far is incredibly intriguing, and there's not a single counterfactual I've been able to find, other than Tesla's track record of punishing our optimism most of the time.

Not advice, as usual.​

Can I fact-check Fact-checking? The first chart you posted is Netherlands sales, not NL+NO+ES.
This changes nothing in your analysis, but the accceleration is less steep.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

got the crazy part right

No offense — my lawyer called me crazy yesterday too

Hey, I thought it was downright psychotic until @dww12 added some very good points also. There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make.

 

[CorneliusXX]

They didn't "lower" the 400k upper limit, they removed it - and I don't see how they can be in a "world of hurt" over exceeding guidance.

There's many moving parts, and even getting above 360k will be excellent execution.

I'd just be super surprised that Tesla could increase their production volumes that dramatically without some info leaking. Where is Carsonight with the reveal on increased cell production, where are the supplier order volume increases, etc. I know Tesla are becoming increasingly proficient at keeping secrets (cybertruck), but hiding volume increases means keeping untold thousands of people from blabbing.

Not impossible that we could have increased volumes, but I think there would be additional third party evidence if volumes had noticeably increased.

Also, don't the following points argue against increased production. If production was increased, wouldn't we see continued availability of vehicles in Q4 (unless demand is increasing at an even faster clip).

• U.S. order book appears to be almost 100% full in Q4 already, according to Tesla's own "weeks of delivery" estimates. (Which tend to lag true demand.)

• EU order book has closed for Q4 deliveries yesterday: most configs are for February 2020 delivery only.

• Inventory levels are very low in the U.S., to the extent Tesla allows us to see them.

 

[Skryll]

EXACTLY!! If Ford has done this on their own, or with Rivian, they have wiped out Tesla's 7 year advantage overnight. The only area they would be deficient in is the charging network.

And the software
And autopilot standard
And the FSD
And the production cost efficiency
And large scale battery pack production

But other than that, what has tesla ever done for us ?

caraoke and Spotify and Netflix - fine

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Just for fun, and since it is Sunday - if Tesla and Ford announce a partnership tonight, will it change your investment strategy for TSLA in anyway? Would you buy F?

 

[elasalle]

Two of America’s biggest coal plants closed this month

 

[winfield100]

Just for fun, and since it is Sunday - if Tesla and Ford announce a partnership tonight, will it change your investment strategy for TSLA in anyway? Would you buy F?

Well, 1,000 shares of Ford would cost ~$1,020, and 1,000 shares of TSLA....( more than I can afford)
and if F bounces up say $1.00/share......

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

And the software
And autopilot standard
And the FSD
And the production cost efficiency
And large scale battery pack production

But other than that, what has tesla ever done for us ?

caraoke and Spotify and Netflix - fine

I should have specified "range advantage" - most people buying an EV for the first time will put a TON more value on range than Netfix. I can assure you of that - especially Ford customers. They couldn't care less about AP either. Most are over 50 and won't even adapt to adaptive cruise (pun intended).

And Ford's disadvantage is battery pack cost will be nullified by their ongoing $7500 rebate availability. In other words, they may have to sell their cars for $7500 more than Tesla, but the buyer will get the $7500 rebate and see the costs as the same.

 

[goinfraftw]

Just for fun, and since it is Sunday - if Tesla and Ford announce a partnership tonight, will it change your investment strategy for TSLA in anyway? Would you buy F?

My 2 cents (for whatever that is worth):

Yes. It'd dramatically increase the market size potential for Tesla with another (huge) competitor turning into a (huge) coopetitor. To be fair, Elon Musk has been saying that there's plenty of opportunity for partnerships alongside Tesla technology for years. It's the old guard taking their time to adopt the transition (in the best case).

 

[aubreymcfato]

Gasoline and diesel pickup trucks with average mileage put around ~30-50 tons of CO₂ in the atmosphere, every single year. They are also very popular globally - so they are a prime target for emissions reduction.

Reducing those emissions to ... near zero sure is worth something to environmentalists that otherwise don't like SUVs and pickup trucks, right?

Help me understand the arguments green/environmentalists have with a zero-emission vehicle that can be charged by renewable energy. Is it simply a demand to return to an 18th-century-technology level?

Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.
No one here knows that pickups sell millions both globally and in the US. You don't see them here (in Italy) and if you see them they are bought by posers, like the Hummers few years ago.
So if Tesla does a super-truck, many will look at it and think that is a overengineered behemoth for alpha-males with compensation problems, and @avoigt already replied about misconceptions and disinformation about batteries and EVs. Greens here advocate for public transport, much less for EVs.

This is a similar problem to the fact that when Elon/Tesla said it would have produced a "mass-market" electric car.
This is true for US (the average price is 35k, TMC taught me) but here in Europe is far less (ie. source).
Here in Italy a Model 3 SR+ costs 49.500 € for the base model. So still a premium car like BMW/Audi/Mercedes.
Basically, all other EVs cost less than M3.
So I hope you start understanding the different perspective people can have here towards Tesla.

I personally think that Tesla will be seen in a different light from the "green" side after the Semi, and also after Tesla Energy actually ramps up and sells a bunch of Megapacks projects also here.
Those to me are real game changers, and there are no arguments against that I can think of.
Semi will be big in terms of PR.

 

[elasalle]

No partnerships until Battery Day. If battery tech takes a giant leap, partnerships might be imminent.

Same for FSD, no one will want the half-balked solution. But were FSD to be complete, others would be willing to pay premium to get the tech .. and Tesla could sell them both h/w (new chips) and Software.

 

[dww12]

Hey, I thought it was downright psychotic until @dww12 added some very good points also. There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make.

Nobody has ever used me as evidence of sanity.

 

[sparcs]

Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.

pickup trucks and suv/crossovers are the key to the US market. If Tesla gets those right, then there will be an even bigger shift towards EVs and other Tesla Energy products here in the US.

I would expect unique Tesla products for the European and Chinese auto markets as well.

 

[Drumheller]

Speculation

Cyber truck name
Building a cyber dragon tweet
Logo is a transformation of Tesla logo
Hints at something amazing

Tesla built a transformer


I actually doubt that, but there is my WAG for the speculation.

 

[pnungesser]

Also why no copy cat comment from Elon? And has Ford said what the E stands for? Is it electric or ELON.

I guess Ford was telling the truth when they said that Tesla couldn't use "Model E" because they had a copyright and had plans to use the "E" designation.

 

[elasalle]

China and US had 'constructive discussions' about phase-one trade deal, state media says

China and US had ‘constructive discussions’ about phase-one trade deal, state media says
PUBLISHED SUN, NOV 17 201912:23 AM ESTUPDATED SUN, NOV 17 20194:20 AM EST

 

[dww12]

Hey, I thought it was downright psychotic until @dww12 added some very good points also. There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make.

OMG, How did I miss this one the mother of all evidence it’s a partnership. Ford gets full EV credit. That means Tesla get full EV credit through the back door selling the most expensive part of the car. That gives 0 loss to Tesla for Ford selling a ton of Mach Es at potentially a slightly lower OTD price with the full EV credit.

 

[ggr]

It wouldn't surprise me if Ford and Tesla have partnered to some extent. Has anyone seen what is inside the charger flap of the new Ford? But anyway... back when I worked for Qualcomm we partnered with Ford in a venture called "Wingcast" to develop advanced telematics. The guy I worked with was tapped to be CTO. After a year or so he came back to HQ and said "I'll never ever think of buying a Ford."

 

[Fact Checking]

There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make.

Put that evidence for a potential Tesla-Ford partnership inside a spoiler tag, with a "Pandora's Box" label. That way no-one can blame you if anyone opens it foolishly!

 

[Snapdragon III]

Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.
No one here knows that pickups sell millions both globally and in the US. You don't see them here (in Italy) and if you see them they are bought by posers, like the Hummers few years ago.
So if Tesla does a super-truck, many will look at it and think that is a overengineered behemoth for alpha-males with compensation problems, and @avoigt already replied about misconceptions and disinformation about batteries and EVs. Greens here advocate for public transport, much less for EVs.

This is a similar problem to the fact that when Elon/Tesla said it would have produced a "mass-market" electric car.
This is true for US (the average price is 35k, TMC taught me) but here in Europe is far less (ie. source).
Here in Italy a Model 3 SR+ costs 49.500 € for the base model. So still a premium car like BMW/Audi/Mercedes.
Basically, all other EVs cost less than M3.
So I hope you start understanding the different perspective people can have here towards Tesla.

I personally think that Tesla will be seen in a different light from the "green" side after the Semi, and also after Tesla Energy actually ramps up and sells a bunch of Megapacks projects also here.
Those to me are real game changers, and there are no arguments against that I can think of.
Semi will be big in terms of PR.

I don't think it is a bad thing at all if subway riding Greens in Europe are pissed off about Tesla's cybertruck. That will just make the people who actually buy trucks like it more. And Greens that love mass transit aren't going to buy a Tesla anyways, so who cares? As an aside, I feel that any "environmentalists" that complains about electric SUV's does not care about the environment so much, but cares deeply about telling other people what to do.