Help me understand the arguments green/environmentalists have with a zero-emission vehicle that can be charged by renewable energy. Is it simply a demand to return to an 18th-century-technology level?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
OT Weekend ramblings
So thinking about cyber-truck reminded me of Elon mentioning something vague about a cyborg a while back. Found a few tweets in which he mentions it:
- Elon Musk on Twitter
- https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1011027339210317825?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1011027339210317825&ref_url=https://electrek.co/2018/06/25/cyborg-dragon-tesla-elon-musk/
I wonder how these dates line up with the development of the truck.
Not sure if Elon ever mentioned pencils down on the design of the truck, like he did with the Y. If cyber-truck is really cyborg dragon, then my guess would be some crane like arm embedded in the truck somehow. Cant imagine Elon wouldn't want to try something like that given the flexibility of the EV skateboard.
Jeep can keep their cute winches. Elon has a better imagination and is a better engineer (refer to landing rockets).
P.S. I think its going to have a decent amount of titanium incorporated into it somehow.
So thinking about cyber-truck reminded me of Elon mentioning something vague about a cyborg a while back. Found a few tweets in which he mentions it:
- Elon Musk on Twitter
- https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1011027339210317825?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1011027339210317825&ref_url=https://electrek.co/2018/06/25/cyborg-dragon-tesla-elon-musk/
I wonder how these dates line up with the development of the truck.
Not sure if Elon ever mentioned pencils down on the design of the truck, like he did with the Y. If cyber-truck is really cyborg dragon, then my guess would be some crane like arm embedded in the truck somehow. Cant imagine Elon wouldn't want to try something like that given the flexibility of the EV skateboard.
Jeep can keep their cute winches. Elon has a better imagination and is a better engineer (refer to landing rockets).
P.S. I think its going to have a decent amount of titanium incorporated into it somehow.
Perfect is the enemy of good. We need cybrtrck to drop emissions in the USA.
True but AZ is right in the assessment that here in Europe FUDsters will use it against the mission. The narrative they spread with just another wrong calculated "study" (ADAC) about carbon emission is the larger the battery the worse it is for environment and unfortunately many people believe in this nonsense.
Also there is a long standing effort against SUV and trucks as polluters in EU too lead for instance by the Green Party. They try to convince people to do more public transportation which is good but many people just can't or have to have a utility truck for work.
In the heads of people they will just combine large battery and SUV/Truck and start with negativity.
Media will know how to use that for their benefit.
While I fully agree that every cyber truck will be a strong positive, even stronger than for small vehicles, the public is so mislead they don't see the forest because of all those trees.
hacer
Active Member
Maybe a better lithium ion cell anode material? If lithium ions intercalate in it, it could be a winner, maybe also become the cell container material too.
Google translate: 7 von 10 Deutschen erwägen Elektroauto • emobly
Germany in electric fever. Even weeks before Elon Musk announced that Tesla will build his new gigafactory in Germany, there seems to be a change of mood in the population. As the digital industry association Bitkom reports, around two-thirds (69 percent) of all Germans would consider buying an electric car.
At the same time, however, consumers are setting certain conditions for their purchase: 62 percent of those surveyed would buy an electric vehicle if they came close to having a battery charge similar to a conventional one-tank car. 47 percent would buy it, if it is not more expensive than comparable conventional cars. And 37 percent assume that the vehicle is as comfortable as a conventional one, for example in terms of space and equipment.
In the spring of this year, Germans were among the world's biggest skeptics of electromobility. At that time, according to a representative survey by E.ON and KantarEMNID, one-third of respondents believed that there would never be more electric cars driving than burning through our streets.
Germany in electric fever. Even weeks before Elon Musk announced that Tesla will build his new gigafactory in Germany, there seems to be a change of mood in the population. As the digital industry association Bitkom reports, around two-thirds (69 percent) of all Germans would consider buying an electric car.
At the same time, however, consumers are setting certain conditions for their purchase: 62 percent of those surveyed would buy an electric vehicle if they came close to having a battery charge similar to a conventional one-tank car. 47 percent would buy it, if it is not more expensive than comparable conventional cars. And 37 percent assume that the vehicle is as comfortable as a conventional one, for example in terms of space and equipment.
In the spring of this year, Germans were among the world's biggest skeptics of electromobility. At that time, according to a representative survey by E.ON and KantarEMNID, one-third of respondents believed that there would never be more electric cars driving than burning through our streets.
For a single counter factual one can look at the Norway deliveries so far. They aren’t bad, but they are still slightly behind last quarter. Dates in other European countries getting pushed back may have a lot to do with prioritizing deliveries to the Netherlands. So we can expect all other EU countries to potentially have flat or lower deliveries this quarter. Most interesting will be the November Europe delivery reports.
SoGA Fan Club
Member
Here's my crazy prediction for the day (week, month, and year/life too).
Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.
Why this prediction?
1. Look at the picture of the the "Lincoln" supercharger stall. It's eerily similar to a Tesla stall. They branded it Lincoln just to throw everyone off. I first had the Tesla/Ford partnership idea pop into my head when I saw that charging stall.
2. Look at the leaked pictures of the Mach E. It is nearly an exact copy of the Model Y. It's almost similar to how the Explorer and Mountaineer used to look - change the nose and the very back, and re-badge it. Additionally, look at the center screen. If that isn't straight from Tesla, I don't know what is. And you may ask about the instrument cluster. However, I'm sure Ford felt like they're older crowd of buyers would not be comfortable without an instrument cluster.
3. The timing of the Ford and Tesla reveals. Within 4 days of each other? Come on.
4. The CyberTruck. The F150 EV will also be powered by Tesla (my prediction I mean). Ford did not want to compete with Tesla in this segment. Not right away anyway. So Tesla is making something totally different than Ford - aimed at a different buyer.
The only question is: Why would Ford and Tesla each want to do this? How would each benefit? I have theories for that too, but the post would get WAY too long. But, if this partnership happens, it could really speed up the transition to sustainable transportation - and ultimately, that is Elon's goal. I think it also makes financial sense for both companies.
EDIT: An additional piece of evidence - The specs on both the Mach E and Model Y are eerily similar, right down to the exact miles on the range estimates. The only real difference between the 2 is storage where the Y has a little more. It looks like Ford and Tesla tried hard to make the cars even to give neither a significant advantage. And where did Ford suddenly come up with the battery technology to allow a X-over to get 270 and 300 miles of range? Rivian? I doubt it.
Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.
Why this prediction?
1. Look at the picture of the the "Lincoln" supercharger stall. It's eerily similar to a Tesla stall. They branded it Lincoln just to throw everyone off. I first had the Tesla/Ford partnership idea pop into my head when I saw that charging stall.
2. Look at the leaked pictures of the Mach E. It is nearly an exact copy of the Model Y. It's almost similar to how the Explorer and Mountaineer used to look - change the nose and the very back, and re-badge it. Additionally, look at the center screen. If that isn't straight from Tesla, I don't know what is. And you may ask about the instrument cluster. However, I'm sure Ford felt like they're older crowd of buyers would not be comfortable without an instrument cluster.
3. The timing of the Ford and Tesla reveals. Within 4 days of each other? Come on.
4. The CyberTruck. The F150 EV will also be powered by Tesla (my prediction I mean). Ford did not want to compete with Tesla in this segment. Not right away anyway. So Tesla is making something totally different than Ford - aimed at a different buyer.
The only question is: Why would Ford and Tesla each want to do this? How would each benefit? I have theories for that too, but the post would get WAY too long. But, if this partnership happens, it could really speed up the transition to sustainable transportation - and ultimately, that is Elon's goal. I think it also makes financial sense for both companies.
EDIT: An additional piece of evidence - The specs on both the Mach E and Model Y are eerily similar, right down to the exact miles on the range estimates. The only real difference between the 2 is storage where the Y has a little more. It looks like Ford and Tesla tried hard to make the cars even to give neither a significant advantage. And where did Ford suddenly come up with the battery technology to allow a X-over to get 270 and 300 miles of range? Rivian? I doubt it.
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anthonyj
Stonks
Rivian: Ford invests $500 million in electric pickup truck maker - CNN
Rivian is helping Ford develop its own EV
The partnership will be between VW and Tesla
My service included programming my third key to my car in my original S and a repeat with my new S as well as adjusting the washer nozzles. The first never went near a service center in three years until I traded it. Both times he came from West Palm over 100 miles away on a regular route. Both techs said there is no reason to do annual service. Anybody can rotate tires and change brake fluid/ pads like any other car. I was just bit by the 40 miles range loss a day bug in the latest software release while the car was at the airport for 2 weeks. The car texted me it was running low and my daughter got it out and used it for a few days then put it back. I put in a service request with the app and next day got a long text from Tesla that they queried the car and the new summon was turned on and using electricity all the time. They also pushed the bug fix update. Waiting to see if that cured the problem. How many other cars can be serviced like this?That's good to hear. Still, I'm always surprised when people say their Tesla needed service. I've had mine over a year and my wife's is closer to 2 years and neither one has needed a lick of service after 30K+ miles. They are definitely NOT garage queens! I just rotate the tires when I switch from summer to winter and that's it besides occasional washing/waxing/vacuuming/window polishing. They both still look and drive like new. If I'm going to invest my money in a company that manufactures finished products for consumer use (like cars), it's only going to be with a company that puts out a superior product like the Model 3.
I do have a few scuffs and scratches in the cargo area because I hate using the gas truck. If it won't fit in the cargo area of the 3 I lash it onto the roof rack. If it's too heavy for the roof rack I ask myself if it really needs moving because I really hate to drive the truck unless I'm on a firewood hunting expedition. I scavenge the trees that have fallen down the previous winter before they start to rot. They are going to release their carbon back into the atmosphere whether I leave them to rot on the forest floor or take them home and split and dry them so I can heat my house. My wife said she gassed the F-150 up this week for the first time in months and it took $98 worth of regular! Now it needs an oil/filter change! We have a good relationship with the Ford dealer but we have to drive 45 minutes (past two dealers we have had not such great experiences with).
With the Teslas, It's kind of hard to build a relationship with your service advisor when your cars never need service! We will take my wife's 3 in for the first time next year at around the 2 year mark but I don't think it will need anything besides replacing the brake fluid and rotating the tires since we will be there anyway. Or can the mobile tech do a 2-year service? That would be awesome!
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Anecdotal evidence:
I live in remoteish rural UK. I'm the only Tesla owner in the village, NEVER seen one at the nearby coffee shop. Pulled in the car park today as a white model S was pulling out, to discover a white model 3 parked there!
BUY TESLA STOCK!
I live in remoteish rural UK. I'm the only Tesla owner in the village, NEVER seen one at the nearby coffee shop. Pulled in the car park today as a white model S was pulling out, to discover a white model 3 parked there!
BUY TESLA STOCK!
SoGA Fan Club
Member
Meh - $500 million is just an investment in that company to hedge their bets, and give them options. No different than Daimler's investment in Tesla early on. I don't think Ford's investment in Rivian prevents Ford's partnership with Tesla - especially since there will be no shared ownership between Ford and Tesla. Partnering with Tesla gets Ford into the EV game early on without investing billions. It positions them as "ready for the future", yet able to make vehicles their customers want today (ICEVs).
Krugerrand
Meow
Krugerrand
Meow
Runarbt
Active Member
Incidentally I posted about this in the finance thread shortly before you wrote that, here's a repost:
I think there's an increasing chance that Tesla will be able to surprise us positively in Q4 again:
Those 5-8 independent pieces of data/clues point towards a skillfully masked attempt by Tesla to hit the ball out of the ballpark in Q4: they might have sandbagged Q3 production and deliveries to maximize Q4 results.
- Q4 European deliveries are intriguingly high so far, per the graph posted by @KarenRei:
- This suggests (but doesn't prove) a substantially higher early quarter production rate in Fremont compared to Q3. Just 35 days into Q4 Tesla started delivering at late-Q3 rates (!).
- This graph by @JustMe shows record Q4 units underway to Europe via ships:
- The rate is significantly beyond any previous quarter: 30-40% higher than Q2, if the "ship loading hours" method is accurate.
- We still don't have an answer to the mystery production increase leak from Jerome, back in July: “While we can’t be too specific in this email, I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments.”
- Q3 Model 3 production was 79k, up from 72k in Q2 - which I don't think matches the tone of Jerome's email.
- There's the leak to Cleantechnica about 7,000 excess Q3 battery packs sent to China:
- Tesla Gigafactory 3 Has ~7,000 Battery Packs In Stock For Chinese Model 3 Production, Will Use LG Chem Cells In 2020 | CleanTechnica
- U.S. order book appears to be almost 100% full in Q4 already, according to Tesla's own "weeks of delivery" estimates. (Which tend to lag true demand.)
- EU order book has closed for Q4 deliveries yesterday: most configs are for February 2020 delivery only.
- Inventory levels are very low in the U.S., to the extent Tesla allows us to see them.
- The 10-Q has shown a significant increase in non-finished goods inventory. Part of it could be battery packs for GF3 - but maybe they stockpiled parts for Fremont as well, for a full quarter demonstration of maximum sustained production rates?
If they do then even Q2 margins would be enough for record Q4 revenue and record GAAP profits.
And here's a final mystery: in their Q4 report Tesla updated the 360k-400k 2019 deliveries guidance range to 360k only. Everyone, including me, interpreted this as an admission that they cannot hit 400k and can barely hit 360k in the best of cases.
But there's another possible explanation for why they removed the 400k upper guidance ...
Anyway, calling Q4 a record quarter at this point is premature I suspect (the rates of ships could slow down, U.S. deliveries could be weaker, etc.), but the evidence so far is incredibly intriguing, and there's not a single counterfactual I've been able to find, other than Tesla's track record of punishing our optimism most of the time.
Not advice, as usual.
Damn.. You have done some excellent work here.
It does seem to good to be true.
More likely, they have evened out deliveries - and production was close to maxed out Q3.
But, I like you thinking and numbers. :-D
So much that I will buy another 30 $700 Jan2020 call (lotto) options. (They cost 1-3 cents - so can pick up 30 for $50-00 inc. fees). Making it an even 50 calls - equal to 5000 shares. SP only have to do a 2x . and they will make me some serious money.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
I think I understand quite fine... my first cell phone was a Motorola Brick, and I've owned a plethora of models up to my current iPhone X. I drove my folk's 1961 Plymouth Valiant (replete with push-button transmission), up through my current Model S. I've lived through the changes of interfaces of both phone and cars, as many here have,
By and large the items you describe are simply non-issues for the majority. Yes, I occasionally mis-type on my iPhone virtual keyboard. But I also inadvertently press the wrong key on my Blackberry. The iPhone is still a vastly more capable device. Likewise I occasionally don't hit the temp control squarely enough on my Model S to register. But then again I've accidentally hit the control stalk on my Toyota and triggered the wipers when I didn't mean too either. The S is still car in another league.
My point is that for the vast majority of folks, these aren't showstoppers. And as the newer generations compose more and more of the car buying market, the objection will be less and less. For those that remain, there's the Jitterbug, and it's numerous automotive equivalents.
As for updates: I have a 2013 Model S. Original MCU 1 design. After 6-1/2 years of owning it I just got Spotify. I expect next update to add departure-based charge scheduling. Of course support will stop at some point... I can't get some replacement parts for older cars either. But until then, what's this nonsense about not getting useful updates?
I'm enjoying WAG weekend. Keep 'em coming.
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