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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
with Semi reveal it was different as there was "one more thing" aka Roadster, SP shot up after that next day.
Off Topic, but our leg from San Diego to LAX was two hours late (the plane was leaving LAX, taxied to the runway, taxied back to the terminal... some sort of equipment failure) so we missed the connection. Still in San Diego. Try again tonight. Almost all flights to Australia leave late at night, there was nothing else we could change to. At least I'll be within a few miles of Elon.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
anthonyj
Stonks
Loading the $420 calls, gonna be $700 tomorrow when Gwynn Shotwell hops on stage, becomes Tesla’s COO and SpaceX makes an investment. I’ma buy 20 Cybertrucks and BEV all the gas stations
Veneers are usually hardwood because they bend easier and can be thinner. Ships' masts are usually pine because pine is stiffer. (My understanding).
If we were to look at the day after unveils what are the ones to look at? For the Model S unveil Tesla was still private but the others would be:
Model X 2012 unveil
Supercharger v1 unveil
Battery swap unveil
Dual motor and Autopilot unveil
Model X 2015 unveil
Model 3 unveil
Semi/Roadster unveil
Model Y unveil
Is that all of them? I can compile movements later but am I missing anything from this list? I’m talking night-time live events with invitations.
I really doubt thickness is an issue here. The amount of pine is virtually limitless relative to the amount of vehicles they could make from the veneer, even if it has to be thick.
I mean, the goal wouldn't be the most economic use of the wood - the goal would be the use of the wood that gives potential buyers the best sense of "Tesla isn't letting these trees go to waste" (even though, obviously, they wouldn't be wasted in any situation).Are there any other issues with pine veneer, apart from required thickness? Hmm, I should try to figure out what kind of pines they are...
ED2: I imagine that a lot of these may be too small for veneer, although some fraction probably are big enough.
ED3: Comparing the photo location to the satellite, this appears to be from an area where the trees are smaller / younger.
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Pezpunk
Active Member
I don't think the Semi product launch is a good data point for predicting what will happen stock-wise with today's event. The Semi / Roadster 2 reveal was in November of 2017 -- the Model 3 was not being delivered yet in any measurable volume. The company was still delivering about 15,000 cars total per quarter. The stock price, back then, was always liable to swing wildly based on things the company said it was planning to do. The stock doesn't act that way anymore. What swings the stock now is not product announcements, or promises, or world-changing plans, but evidence of execution on those plans. Only two things have moved the stock more than a handful of percentage points over the last year-plus: profit numbers and delivery numbers. Past-tense reveals, not future-tense reveals.
I don't expect much movement after this event, unless they announce something that they've already done, rather than something they intend to do.
cmon, TSLA, make me 0 for 3 on predictions this season.
The Tesla Truck Is Coming Today. Here’s What That Means For Ford and GM Stock
“Citi data suggests Ford has more headline risk than GM,” Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli wrote in a Thursday research report. “If Tesla’s pickup impresses, Ford is competitively more exposed to share-loss risk than GM, with materially higher [earnings] exposure.”
That makes sense. Ford (ticker: F) is a bigger truck maker than General Motors (GM) and a large portion of its profits come from trucks. But Michaeli goes deeper in his research note. Ford sells more trucks with selling prices greater than $60,000. The Tesla (TSLA) truck will likely be positioned for the higher end of truck buyers based on its existing models and the high cost of batteries powering electric vehicles.
“As for Tesla, a positive [event] stock reaction is, of course, possible, but given the recent run-up in the shares and the fairly muted reactions to the last two unveilings...we don’t see a convincing setup into the event,” Michaeli writes. He rates Tesla shares the equivalent of Sell and has a $191 price target for the stock.
The run-up to this unveiling has been substantial. Tesla shares are up about 60% over the past three months due in part to better than expected third quarter earnings. Tesla shares are up about 6% year-to-date after spending most of the year in the red. The S&P 500, for comparison, is up about 26% year to date.
It isn’t all about GM and Ford. Investors shouldn’t forget about truck parts suppliers. Electric trucks will be a small part of the overall market for the foreseeable future and many truck part suppliers have electrification products as well as parts unrelated to the drivetrain. Still, it’s possible shares of companies such as Allison Transmission (ALSN), Cummins ( CMI ) and American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) could also move on the launch event."
“Citi data suggests Ford has more headline risk than GM,” Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli wrote in a Thursday research report. “If Tesla’s pickup impresses, Ford is competitively more exposed to share-loss risk than GM, with materially higher [earnings] exposure.”
That makes sense. Ford (ticker: F) is a bigger truck maker than General Motors (GM) and a large portion of its profits come from trucks. But Michaeli goes deeper in his research note. Ford sells more trucks with selling prices greater than $60,000. The Tesla (TSLA) truck will likely be positioned for the higher end of truck buyers based on its existing models and the high cost of batteries powering electric vehicles.
“As for Tesla, a positive [event] stock reaction is, of course, possible, but given the recent run-up in the shares and the fairly muted reactions to the last two unveilings...we don’t see a convincing setup into the event,” Michaeli writes. He rates Tesla shares the equivalent of Sell and has a $191 price target for the stock.
The run-up to this unveiling has been substantial. Tesla shares are up about 60% over the past three months due in part to better than expected third quarter earnings. Tesla shares are up about 6% year-to-date after spending most of the year in the red. The S&P 500, for comparison, is up about 26% year to date.
It isn’t all about GM and Ford. Investors shouldn’t forget about truck parts suppliers. Electric trucks will be a small part of the overall market for the foreseeable future and many truck part suppliers have electrification products as well as parts unrelated to the drivetrain. Still, it’s possible shares of companies such as Allison Transmission (ALSN), Cummins ( CMI ) and American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) could also move on the launch event."
How flexible it is (pine isn't all that flexible), how well it can stain (the resin in pine can be an issue), grain and knots.I really doubt thickness is an issue here. The amount of pine is virtually limitless relative to the amount of vehicles they could make from the veneer, even if it has to be thick.
Are there any other issues with pine veneer, apart from required thickness?
The Accountant
Active Member
As we wait for the Pick-Up reveal, here's a quick update on Q4. As many members here have noted, International sales for Q4 are shaping up to be huge. If we can rely on the Loading Days metric, the first 2 months of Q4 saw loading days of 37.8 days compared to the first 2 months of Q3 at 28.1 days. That is a 35% increase. If US deliveries don't tank, we are going to see a terrific Q4 delivery number.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Not very pretty, especially new growth (growth rings aren't tight). Some plywood is often sold with pine show faces, hideous stuff but cheap.
Ouch, they might locate a Markus B. Spiegelicus lost in the woods there. Rare and very peculiar species but definitely not native to that forest!
ps: it is definitely an endangered species due to the latest SP movements!
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FTFY
Sorry, Karen, just forget about selling any of your newly planted trees to Tesla.
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