Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EinSV]

Jim Chanos: "Tesla is and remains one of our biggest and our best short positions."

Translation:

1. "One of our biggest": We have guidelines about how much of any one name we can short. We sold $TSLA short at ~$200 near the limit of our size position. The stock blew up to $350, so it is now one of our biggest short positions. (For example, a $50M short position at $200 becomes an $87M short position at $350.)

2. "One of our best": I really hope it turns out to be one of our best shorts, or we're going to lose our shirts -- see #1!!!

 

[ZeApelido]

I still think this picture was just a joke--something to throw people off.

But I thought he also mentioned he drove it and that it was massive?

 

[Lessmog]

Ahh. Good old Peter Falcon at the door. Long time no see.

Edit: Door wink -- get it?

 

[SteveG3]

My big takeaway from this interview was a real feeling of sadness for the students of his Yale fraud class. He has a great deal of financial knowledge, and can be quite convincing to bright-eyed truth-seekers, inspired by his Enron prophecy.

Unfortunately he is [quite deliberately] aligning them against what is probably one of the few (only?) large corporate entities truly trying to do something good for all of us.

Professor Chanos is just engaging the students in some experiential learning at his fraud class

 

[ZeApelido]

Okay, he says [paraphrasing] "you will actually be able to legally drive that truck with a normal driver's license"

Sounds too specific to be just for fun.

video links to truck picture

 

[Skryll]

I'll admit that I just sold all TSLA shares at $355.xx. I've been holding onto TSLA for some time now (that dip down into $2xx was a hard to face; oldest shares dated back in 2018). Based on so many past events and holding stock into it, the next day TSLA is on sale... I'd rather unload now, rebuy back at a lower price. Just a strategy that most likely will work. If TSLA goes higher, I'll hop back onto the train. Keeping my sell plan as I discussed with my wife and just executed, staying on course. I originally had a sell order for half of my TSLA holding at $360 but removed it because I saw it heading up, but checked back later it never sustained momentum to reach $365 (new sell order), so I'll have to settle with $355.

I highly doubt TSLA will head higher because it's not like the truck will be in production any time soon to help Tesla profit, since Model Y is priority right now. So I anticipate TSLA dropping tomorrow. But who knows...

Thank you for your donation helping the shorts cover without getting burned too bad. They have invested so much of their heart and soul it would be a shame if they were left holding the bag all alone now...

 

[CorneliusXX]

As Southern California discovered when they imported Eucalyptus trees to build railroads, Eucalypts are basically useless...

Eucalyptus sideroxylon - Wikipedia

 

[jerry33]

Okay, he says [paraphrasing] "you will actually be able to legally drive that truck with a normal driver's license"

Sounds too specific to be just for fun.

video links to truck picture

I doubt if that's the Cybrtrk. But it it's likely to be a base for campers and motorhomes once Semi production is ramped up. There are a lot of those behemoths out there getting 2-4 mpg.

 

[LJS22]

Finally someone shuts CNBC up about competition with the infrastructure facts.

 

[Bet the House]

OK here it is. The list apparently no one asked for. Either way useful for me.
Model X 2012 +2.04%
Supercharger v1 -9.78%
Battery swap -1.09%
The "D" -7.82%
Model X 2015 +0.71%
Model 3 +3.4%
Semi/Roadster +0.82%
Model Y -5.01%

Well, it seems to me puts are a better bet than calls. I'll probably stay away from this one but I definitely won't buy calls.

Very informative. Thank you. It would be interesting to know what the Nasdaq did those days as well.

 

[UncaNed]

They were all under a hundred bucks for each 100 share options. I'm just dabbling really. I seem to like buying the cheap ones that are likely to expire as worthless and I've just been lucky that we saw TSLA jump in the past few months. I bought most of my calls back in spring/summer and I was able to turn a few $50 plays into a couple grand. Before that I was probably down a grand.

My logic was that I felt the SP would turn around once GF3 was complete and after Q3 delivery and earnings reports. I still have a few expiring in December. That worked out, now I have no idea what to look for next. I recently bought a few more cheapies that expire in May 2020 or so, below the magical 420 number which I think will have a major psychological impact on longs and shorts alike.

Definitely not advice because I definitely don't know what I'm doing. I figure the stock is undervalued compared to the long run so tossing $50 at a possible 1-2k profit is a cheap thrill.

Thanks for your not-advice. The cheapest May 2020's I see right now are over $30... You imply you got some for under $10 recently?

 

[mongo]

Yeah. It was bothering me that with a worse aerodynamic shape and the promise of higher miles and toughness overall, these things can fit into $50k.

This must be based on new gen batteries, which they'll likely have lined up in 2 years.

The specs per price ratio may look detrimental to 3/Y value though...

How else can this be? Would they say $50k truck has 200m range? I doubt it.

They are projecting $100/kWh at pack level. 200kWh pack -> $20k, 25% margin -> $12.5k
$17.5k for rest of vehicle and production line.
A SR RWD version could be 100kWh and gain $10k in budget.

Heh, do you have enough space for the big one?

Seriously, this is the image he showed at the Semi unveiling. At that time he also mentioned he drove it (IIRC). No way something that size could be the only truck option!

Please, tell me what I am missing in this logic.

From the video @ 9:30:
"And then we, just for interest sake, we created a pickup truck version of the Tesla Semi. It's a pickup truck that can carry a pickup truck. so. now. By the way this is you can legally drive that, I mean it shouldn't be legal but. um. You will actually be able to legally drive that with an ordinary driver's license, it's kind of wrong but I like it"


My take on that section was that it was a humorous thought experiment. Real truck would not be that large.
(we'll see soon how well this post ages).

 

[SteveG3]

we have a startup out with an EV pickup rendering today, to be for sale by year end 2020

Lordstown Motors claims it's going to beat Tesla to market with all-electric pickup with $52,500 price - Electrek

teasing aside, can see why a tiny start up would try to ride along this cybrtrk moment

 

[Yuri_G]

Okay, he says [paraphrasing] "you will actually be able to legally drive that truck with a normal driver's license"

Sounds too specific to be just for fun.

video links to truck picture

He meant the actual semi. The giant truck render was just made for fun to see what the semi would look like as a pickup. People ran with it after they showed the image at the semi reveal, but there's no intention of making that if you listen closely.

Edit: Okay, wrong on the first part, but yeah. What mongo said.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Hey everyone, first time poster here. Long time lurker though.
Without wanting to sound like a superbull, I have gathered data and my general "feel" and I think TSLA will generate a $3B profit in 2020. Does that ring weird to anyone?

Just to be fair to the lurking bears. Care to expand on this posting and show your work? Also, are you saying net profit or gross profit? I'm assuming net, since $3B would be too low for gross profit (20% of $25B is already $5B!).

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm off to bed folks - enjoy the show, will catch-up at a more civilised hour.

Have to say though I saw around 10 Model X's today and a handful of MS, then on the evening dog-walk with the wife, there was a Model 3 AND a model S parked on the street - never seen those two before. Really becoming common here.

 

[EVMeister]

Finally someone shuts CNBC up about competition with the infrastructure facts.

Good guest, shame about the host. He doesn't even know he's supposed to be discussing "Electric Vehicles" not "Electronic Vehicles".

 

[anthonyj]

Just to be fair to the lurking bears. Care to expand on this posting and show your work? Also, are you saying net profit or gross profit? I'm assuming net, since $3B would be too low for gross profit (20% of $25B is already $5B!).

That’s a parody of ValueAnalyst

 

[Fred42]

we have a startup out with an EV pickup rendering today, to be for sale by year end 2020

Lordstown Motors claims it's going to beat Tesla to market with all-electric pickup with $52,500 price - Electrek

as probable as an electric Tucker

 

[UncaNed]

Okay, he says [paraphrasing] "you will actually be able to legally drive that truck with a normal driver's license"

Sounds too specific to be just for fun.

video links to truck picture

No, it's just a well-kept non-secret that anybody with a driver's license can buy a cheap, used tractor trailer without the trailer, hop in and drive without any special license using it for an RV or whatever.