Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

Flashbulb Memory
From Wikipedia:
A flashbulb memory is a highly detailed, exceptionally vivid 'snapshot' of the moment and circumstances in which a piece of surprising and consequential (or emotionally arousing) news was heard ....(and I'll add: or seen).

You remember exactly where you were during these Flashbulb moments. I was in my colleagues office when the OJ verdict came in. I was on air doing my hourly radio show at my college station when President Reagan was shot (I was playing Springsteen's Thunder Road when the news came in). All Tesla fans will remember exactly where they were when they watched the Cybertruck Unveil...and will remember the "broken windows' incident like a Flashbulb Memory. I will remember that I said, "wtf" when the truck came up on stage and I will remember that I said, "omg" when the window broke.

Since the Broken Windows incident, there has been much debate on whether it was intentional, not intentional...whether it hurts the Cybertruck's success or provides the best marketing exposure no one could have ever imagined. I suspect that years from now when the Cybertruck's success is evident, we will see Case Studies at top Business Schools about the Cybertruck and students will debate whether the impact (no pun intended) of the broken windows benefited or hurt Tesla ....I am sure there will never be a consensus. One thing we can all agree on is that it's a Flashbulb Memory.

 

[EVMeister]

I ordered the Cybertruck for fun. I really thought I would order a Rivian after seeing the Cybertruck. But I have to be honest. When I look at the Rivian now, it looks boring and outdated! Go Tesla!

What a difference a day makes...

I thought the "one more thing" was going to be the real Cybertruck. I kept thinking this has to be a joke....

 

[shrspeedblade]

The initial gut reaction on any new design is always Yuuck. It takes a few minutes, hours, days, longer to get to liking it.

It’s important to remember that Cybertruck was designed to be ugly in a tough, futuristic sort of way and that cars like the Pontiac Aztek and Nissan Juke were not.

It’s an important distinction.

 

[SO16]

Flashbulb Memory
From Wikipedia:
A flashbulb memory is a highly detailed, exceptionally vivid 'snapshot' of the moment and circumstances in which a piece of surprising and consequential (or emotionally arousing) news was heard ....(and I'll add: or seen).

You remember exactly where you were during these Flashbulb moments. I was in my colleagues office when the OJ verdict came in. I was on air doing my hourly radio show at my college station when President Reagan was shot (I was playing Springsteen's Thunder Road when the news came in). All Tesla fans will remember exactly where they were when they watched the Cybertruck Unveil...and will remember the "broken windows' incident like a Flashbulb Memory.

Since the Broken Windows incident, there has been much debate on whether it was intentional, not intentional...whether it hurts the Cybertruck's success or provides the best marketing exposure no one could have ever imagined. I suspect that years from now when the Cybertruck's success is evident, we will see Case Studies at top Business Schools about the Cybertruck and students will debate whether the impact (no pun intended) of the broken windows benefited or hurt Tesla ....I am sure there will never be a consensus. One thing we can all agree on is that it's a Flashbulb Memory.

1. It was NOT intentional.
2. Yes the media and many people view it as a negative.
3. People with at least half a brain would realize their own vehicle would shatter and take note of the amazing Cybertruck specs.
4. The amount of exposure Tesla has received is worth millions.

This is ultimately a fantastic thing for Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

Since the Broken Windows incident, there has been much debate on whether it was intentional, not intentional...whether it hurts the Cybertruck's success or provides the best marketing exposure no one could have ever imagined. I suspect that years from now when the Cybertruck's success is evident, we will see Case Studies at top Business Schools about the Cybertruck and students will debate whether the impact (no pun intended) of the broken windows benefited or hurt Tesla ....I am sure there will never be a consensus. One thing we can all agree on is that it's a Flashbulb Memory.

Elon posted a video showing that they tested the same glass earlier on the truck (you can find it earlier in this thread). Microcracks caused the issue (Don't hit the glass multiple times). This was just a lucky accident. If they had actually known before it was going to crack, they would have done the same test on the white truck door window besides just the sledgehammer test.

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah, I am wondering about the crumple zones in an exoskeleton design. I wonder if they are scoring a bend point on the underside of the SS panels? It seems they have advanced a bending method for the exoskeleton production in the first place and it could be they are able to use this method to work out a crush/crumple/"new term" design that results in energy absorption in event of a collision.

I believe that not only is there a very good crumple zone in the Cybertruck, the Cybertruck will in fact set new crash safety records, because the distance between front passengers and the nose of the truck is significantly larger.

All the rest can be engineered arbitrarily: an exoskeleton skin can have small added structural weaknesses that will only trigger on the huge loads of a crash, not on the loads of regular loads.

There's also the following advantage: with regular premium cars and trucks most panels do not offer much crash protection, because they are made of thin aluminum alloys and paint. So true crash protection only begins at the frame, which is often inches away from the skin of the car and is also a mesh-frame, not a surface.

With the Cybertruck the skin is the protective frame, and deceleration of incoming kinetic projectiles, be them other cars, sledgehammers or bullets, begins at the skin already.

The side crash protection abilities of the Cybertruck should be particularly impressive, because that's where the deceleration path of incoming objects is lengthened the most compared to traditional vehicles, which reduces the peak acceleration forces the passengers are exposed to.

Note that there are also crashes where the incoming object avoids the frame of the car mostly, such as side crashes with larger cars and even frontal crashes with buses or larger trucks:

These frame-avoiding types of crashes are not tested by any of the crash testing institutes, and yes, they happen all the time. With an exoskeleton the "frame" extends a lot higher. In the above scenario the "wedge" would push up the bus and probably not allow any intrusion into passenger volume.

Finally, protection of the Cybertruck against impaling crashes in particular should be spectacularly strong:

 

[Navin]

i was at the event. Front row, dead center. While the glass breaking was unfortunate - does anyone think that it won’t be fixed prior to production? There is a freakin Tesla orbiting the galaxy right now. The impact of this is actually positive since all that media draws attention to Tesla. Think of this glass breaking as free marketing. Anyone even thinking or talking about the mustang E?
LOL. Brilliant.


I put a deposit on one. It’s like buying a call option but benefit of being 100% refundable. Assuming self driving software price improves - price WILL go up considerably. Buying the cybertrck with locked in 7k pricing for autopilot now could create an arbitrage opportunity to buy and then sell car for a premium in 2-3 years. Not that it’s my intention to do it - I’m keeping it. But it makes putting a deposit down for $100 bucks a no brainer, wise investment decision.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

i was at the event. Front row, dead center. While the glass breaking was unfortunate - does anyone think that it won’t be fixed prior to production? There is a freakin Tesla orbiting the galaxy right now. The impact of this is actually positive since all that media draws attention to Tesla. Think of this glass breaking as free marketing. Anyone even thinking or talking about the mustang E?
LOL. Brilliant.

It’s a nothing burger

 

[Remus]

I am not a truck person and that truck is too big for me. If they make a model Y sized SUV shaped like a cyber truck I will order it in a heartbeat.

 

[GaryW]

When the glass broke, both men looked at each other. They didn’t expect it, or they are great actors.

The next step really appealed to me. Was the failure an implementation issue on that window/door?

Try the other one! It broke, too, so no. It’s a design issue.

When I was architecting workstations, I would have done the exact same test.

 

[Sean Wagner]

This is big, it's the first time an electric car priced under an equally functioned gas car. This is the pivot point we have been waiting for a really long time.

Hrhm.
Things are different in Switzerland!
I know this is highly uncommon knowledge [which is why I like to repeat it in many places]:

BMW 330 e // 62'800 CHF base according to the official Nov. 2019 pricelist
Model 3 LR // 54'990 CHF [+1'000 admin]
Model 3 P // 59'990 CHF [+1000 admin]

With no federal subsidies for EVs but lower import taxes than the EU.
Resulting in the Model 3 being in the top ten of all vehicles sold YTD, way ahead of the BMW 3 series.

5:07 AM · Nov 23, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
17.9K Retweets
139K Likes

And 2.3 million views. A must watch. Tesla's designers are not afraid to play hardball.

Gulp.

26.8K Retweets
218.3K Likes

4 million views.

 

[Fact Checking]

Since the Broken Windows incident, there has been much debate on whether it was intentional, not intentional...

Btw., in hindsight, the window shattering gaffe was clearly not intended, as can be seen from the reactions and body language of Elon and Franz.

There's also this report by the main Reddit /r/teslamotors moderator, who is also an Air Force blast & ballistics research engineer:

I held "the ball" and talked to Senior Reliability Engineer for 30 minutes about the broken glass incident. : teslamotors

"I used to be a blast & ballistics research engineer who tested blast-proof and forced-entry-proof glass for US embassies"

"I talked to a senior reliability engineer at event and held the 1 kg steel ball Franz threw."

"He said they threw it 5 times the night before with no issue, and suspected microfractures were root cause."

"He was a super nice guy, obviously a bit shaken up by the ordeal. By the end of our convo, he offered me a job lol."​

Btw., I think I managed to figure out why both windows shattered, and while I'd normally be reluctant to disagree with the expert opinion of a senior Tesla engineer in his field of expertise, I'm 99% confident that it wasn't microfractures.

If we carefully examine the video of the steel ball window test Franz performed:

Elon Musk on Twitter​

Note how at the end of the video the door opens slightly: probably because the protective blanket got in between and maybe prevented the door from closing completely? Also, as noted by @lascavarian, window also drops slightly as if a door opening sequence got triggered.

But a hermetically closed door is less elastic, and in the prior test the window had a couple of millimeters more path to spring back to - which was possibly enough difference to prevent the glass from shattering. Closed air volumes are also harder to compress.

During the demonstration the door was closed hermetically and there was much less spring-back:

Had they tested the exact same demonstration as they did during the presentation (with no blankets and with a hermetically closed door), I believe both windows would have shattered in the prior test as well.

 

[lklundin]

Demand for this truck is going to creep in from all kinds of areas. Normal trucks are boring and their cost of ownership is dramatically higher.

I think demand for this truck will be huge over time.

I imagine a good portion of the market for the Cybertruck would never actually take it off-road, like today's typical SUV/off-road market.

So Tesla could publish Cybertruck range figures also for range-optimizing tires (which in a pinch could be combined with tire chains).

 

[lklundin]

I believe Elon meant the > 250 kW charging is for another event.

My guess is that Cybertruck, Plaid and Roadster2 will all charge at 500 kW. Remember the 350 kW children’s toy comment?

The question is will that happen during Battery Investor Day, or for the Plaid announcement?

In principle, a Tesla capable of 500 kW charging could do so by using two v3 Supercharger stalls at the same time - using two stalls for half the time would not make much difference to other users.

 

[mongo]

Great approach to the 5th-wheel/gooseneck trailer towing question. Thanks for breaking it down for us. You've got an excellent analytical mind.

I agree with your analysis, with only one question remaining in my mind. Tesla's Cybertruck web pages feature a photo of what appears to be towing a futuristic work trailer. Tesla's unibody structure must have been engineered to some degree to facilitate the planned ability to pull such a load. Towing forces aren't just 'can it pull it forward', but also must address the stopping, lateral wind, and uneven road surface torque dynamics. The rated towing capacity of 7500# seems to address this as well.

The tri-motor's 14k towing can be done with a 2" class IV weight distributing hitch. This keeps things common across all varients. Class V is 2.5" but maxes out at a higher tongue weight (1,700 vs 1,400) and load of 17k.

They could make a different rear frame for the tri-motor with gooseneck support that ties into the rear air suspension structure (titanium option?). But that seems unlikely due to take rate/ complexity/ side rails.

 

[printf42]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, it's been hard to keep up with this thread recently. Some people are raising concerns about the safety aspects of the Cybertruck and how economical any repairs would be. With the panels being very costly and difficult to replace (insurance cost concerns) and a lack of crumple zones. The vehicle perhaps being too damaging to others in a crash? Any thoughts on this?

Safety would be top notch no doubt about that.
Pedestrian protection would be not bad since obviously the bonnet is not glass anymore for a reason.

Collision cost for this thing is going to be order of magnitude lower than conventional cars.

Most of the fender bender would be puffed out like it never happened.Even if it leaves some scratches, the design is like some people, they just look better with some scars on their face.

For bigger incidents with structural damages, the car would be totaled just like any other car would.
With the truck having total cost not higher than other truck, also considering the high probably of salvageable battery pack. The cost for that should not be any higher.

So, I am expecting the truck to have significantly lower insurance costs.

 

[Yodi]

It’s been couple of weeks now and I keep seeing the same think on the weekly Tesla chart: cup with handle forming last 50 weeks, now we just formed the cup with resent highs around 360$ . The handle should take few more weeks to complete and shouldn’t drop more than 12%. My guess is if the delivery numbers are good if not Q4 ER we will break out of the formation

 

[Remus]

Things are different in Switzerland!
I know this is highly uncommon knowledge [which is why I like to repeat it in many places]:

BMW 330 e // 62'800 CHF base according to the official Nov. 2019 pricelist
Model 3 LR // 54'990 CHF [+1'000 admin]
Model 3 P // 59'990 CHF [+1000 admin]

It's still different. Many do not consider performance part of function. I concede this line is blurry. But people can live without fast acceleration, many who rely their lives on the truck can not live without the bed size, the load and the towing capacity.

It's still the first time EV is price competitive when only base functionality is considered.

 

[capster]

I wouldn't be so sure. The flat panels and sharp angles make the panel fabrication much easier (read cheaper). Also, production versions of past vehicles have changed very little from when they were first unveiled. So I'm not expecting added curves or other changes. Plus the sharp angles add to the "Personnel Carrier of the Future" look.

Agree overall except I’m expecting side mirrors that fold flush unless there are regulatory changes allowing cameras to replace mirrors.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm convinced that the Tesla Engineers designed a truck for planet earth exploration, taking no different approach as SpaceX would do for a Mars vehicle design. This is what you'd build en mass if you were visiting planet earth from another planet, using the resources from this planet. It is 100% function, design to explore. Putting this another way, which vehicle would you use if you arrived from another planet, an F-150? Answer is clear even if you discount for 220V or the air ride, especially if you don't know what you'll encounter in the wild.

I can only imagine what's being said in all the other boardrooms. "Should we at least research this shape and approach as well?" or "Whew, that won't touch our market...". (Lol, the google map data suggests otherwise.) And what about Naomi? (SNL humor.)

So now what right? Will they stick with that F-150 shape for another few decades? And who will be the first to make the switch (not to just EVs, but to triangular sheets of metal EVs)? Or will this be a Tesla only signature market - once again smashing all safety records from rollovers or cliffs and boulders.

And one more begging question. Will future cars look like this too? Is the newest Industrial Age all about Mfg efficiency and product durability, casting aside all design assumptions of the past? Consumers up to this point have demanded product look good vs max durability. (Sure, some can afford both, but cheap is what we are taught is OK through IKEA and Walmart)

Accustomed to the cheaper prices, nothing lasts today and this wastes our natural resources. It doesn't matter that a beautiful truck would rust to hell in no time, because they'll just get a newer one and pass the junk along for it's short time on the planet. IMO, that lifestyle in the future will be frowned upon, and this next gen's response will come with avengence.

So, triangular cars too?