Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

最前线 | 国产特斯拉Model 3两个月后交付，车主可提车过年_36氪

The article is in Chinese and it mentioned that the Tesla China said they were trying to start to deliver before Chinese new year (1/25/2020). It seems a little bit more optimistic than what a VP said days ago (she mentioned the end of Jan), but still not Q4.

The article only says this:

Tesla responded to Bloomberg : "We are working hard to deliver gradually before the Spring Festival, and strive to let our customers take the Model 3 made in China home for the festival." And the Spring Festival of the Rat is January 25th.​

This, to me, suggests some significant volume by that time - and it's entirely consistent with the idea of starting delivery in early January and ramping up by January 25.

Technically it also doesn't exclude early deliveries in December - depending on whether Tesla needs them for the Q4 results.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I think TSLA is down because of fear that CT is going to Osborne the whole Tesla lineup. No more Tesla demand until CT is on the market. The catch 22 of our nightmares.

 

[wipster]

The article only says this:

Tesla responded to Bloomberg : "We are working hard to deliver gradually before the Spring Festival, and strive to let our customers take the Model 3 made in China home for the festival." And the Spring Festival of the Rat is January 25th.​

This, to me, suggests some significant volume by that time - and it's entirely consistent with the idea of starting delivery in early January and ramping up by January 25.

Technically it also doesn't exclude early deliveries in December - depending on whether Tesla needs them for the Q4 results.

I'm sure there are some employees at GF3 willing to take delivery before Dec. 31.

 

[X Fan]

The Model 3 captured 45% of its class segment -- I have to imagine it is simply eviscerating 3 Series / C-Class sales.



Indeed -- though I would be surprised given the modest tax cliff in the US which should cause Tesla to also prioritize US sales, it is possible that Tesla is banking US deliveries for Q1'20 which could cause a greater falloff.

With that said, it appears that the number of shipments to China in Q4 has increased over Q3 despite the likelihood of significant GF3-produced deliveries, which gives me comfort that GF3 deliveries won't simply help maintain the international prediction in this model, but perhaps make it a real blockbuster.

I hope that US deliveries are not held back too much....otherwise, we'll get the FUDsters trumpeting the fact that Tesla Model 3 momentum has stalled and in decline.

 

[Mike Smith]

This is where there was resistance on the way up, so hopefully it's the bottom for the day.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

The article only says this:

Tesla responded to Bloomberg : "We are working hard to deliver gradually before the Spring Festival, and strive to let our customers take the Model 3 made in China home for the festival." And the Spring Festival of the Rat is January 25th.​

This, to me, suggests some significant volume by that time - and it's entirely consistent with the idea of starting delivery in early January and ramping up by January 25.

Technically it also doesn't exclude early deliveries in December - depending on whether Tesla needs them for the Q4 results.

You can literally read it as this...but the meaning between lines is pretty clear to me. Nobody says ' I will have my dinner before jan 2080' although technically it is correct...

 

[Nocturnal]

I really think people should be prepared this bear attack to intensify tomorrow and Friday since they'll have even lower volume on the buy side than today and yesterday. At this point I think sub 320 is very likely and possibly sub 310 if macros start retreating . Could see an intra day low of below 300 on Monday during the MMD.

I'm not saying it to be a debbie downer and I'm sure I'll get disagreed. I'm not happy about this people Just seen plenty of evidence with this stock over the years to notice the trends. It's all about resetting the trading ranges before earnings and delivery numbers.

Lord when we get SP inclusion I'll be jumping for joy

While the longs are enjoying the Holidays and their friends/families, the miserable shorts will be out there trying to increase misery in the world.

 

[M3Rider]

What the hell is that?
Tusk AF on Twitter

Looks too good for the photoshop.

 

[humbaba]

It's amazing that we have gone from "an Electric pickup won't work, it will be a sissy truck for wimps" to "well, you should only compare it against an F-450" in such a short period of time.

Ah, the goal posts, they just keep moving. Whenever I bring up the performance of a Tesla car its always, "Well, that's just because its an electric. You have to compare it to an equivalent vehicle." They go real quiet when you point out how much it costs to do that...

I'm half serious when I say that truck pulls will exclude the cybertruck: where's the fun in it when the lone cybertruck always wins? I say, plenty of fun for me!

The cybertruck isn't even out yet and already "it isn't good enough" because it won't be rated to pull 26,000 pounds. WTF?

At the end of the day some people just can't handle their rube goldberg machines being obsolete.

 

[c041v]

I recall reading somewhere recently that EV's were banned from a drag strip...

 

[humbaba]

What the hell is that?
Tusk AF on Twitter

Looks too good for the photoshop.

I didn't look close, but its already been pointed out that making a 3d model of a cybertruck would be rather easy. That would be rather trivial to render.

 

[humbaba]

I recall reading somewhere recently that EV's were banned from a drag strip...

Tesla Cars and Other EVs Banned From Texas Drag Strip Due to Battery Fires

because EVs just explode into flames

but it would not have been a good look to admit they were tired of having their asses handed to them.

edit: a friend of mine said it isn't fair because drag racing in a Tesla, the Tesla always wins. Its just the car, not the driver or owner. And, yes, @Krugerrand, I should get better friends. But he at least keeps cats.

 

[dc_h]

The ship, Lake Geneva, left for China early yesterday. Short turnaround. A new ship, RCC Europe, arrived this morning just after midnight. Pier 80 is not vacant for very long.

Probably the last potential ship for Europe. Next week outbound would arrive on or about Christmas and would be tough to deliver. The exception would be another Philly ship. Very surprising number of ships to Asia with 8 so far. If RCC is going to Europe it’s 8 for Europe and 8 for Asia. There would be time for one more to Asia the first week of December, but the rest of Q4 is very likely to be US bound.

 

[Drax7]

A successful CT unveiling leads to a sell off.
That makes no make sense.
200,000 reservation is more than anybody dreamed of.

 

[Curt Renz]

Regarding the defamation lawsuit against Musk by Unsworth, that's a personal matter for Musk and does not involve Tesla. It's essentially old news, but the trial is next week when the media will want to make something of it.

Regarding the challenge by Ford to test the F-450 against the Cybertruck, Musk appears confident. However, even if Ford wins, it would still be a marketing bonanza for a company that does not advertise commercially. But let's not be surprised if Ford backs out.

Meanwhile, Thanksgiving week trading will continue light, which could create more opportunities for manipulators. Although that can work both ways. Almost any large spike in trading volume during a single minute amid no fresh news is likely due to a manipulator. An institution intent on buying or selling would spread its trading more gradually.

 

[anthonyj]

A successful CT unveiling leads to a sell off.
That makes no make sense.
200,000 reservation is more than anybody dreamed of.

It would've sold off no matter what. Traders were begging for a reason to sell after the huge run. Overbought RSI. Also, it is cemented into people's heads that selling/shorting >$350 is guaranteed profit. TSLA is a casino stock since it's plagued with shorts.

 

[dc_h]

He's just namedropping his wife to make you think he's not gay

(I'm trying to go for the moon re disagrees today)

Anthony?

 

[Mike Smith]

A successful CT unveiling leads to a sell off.
That makes no make sense.
200,000 reservation is more than anybody dreamed of.

Probably close to 300k now.

 

[dc_h]

Jim Cramer brilliant call!

“
Back in 2011, with Tesla Inc. shares trading around $22, CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer told a caller to “cut her losses” and sell. “Nothing there. Don’t like that stock,” he said.

Booyah! The stock closed Monday at $336.34.”

CNBC’s Jim Cramer, a longtime Tesla critic, says he might be about to buy a Model X — because his wife says so — MarketWatch

Tesla is more discounted to future earnings now then in 2012.

 

[mongo]

What the hell is that?
Tusk AF on Twitter

Looks too good for the photoshop.

No driver, no body seams, and the front suspension is questionable.