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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bullish AF
500 by end of week
Interesting to have steadfastly held TSLA all these years through thick and thin, and now see uncertainty... about how high it can go.
We are in 'price discovery' mode, meaning there is no established resistance now in advancing ATH territory like there has been beneath previous ATHs.
We have two new Gigafactories, one mostly built and one on the way... energizing two new enthusiastic audiences of potential investors.
Asians inherently love innovators like Tesla and now suddenly it seems so *near* to them in many ways; factory proximity, MIC deliveries and advancing stock price. Germans and other Europeans too, as they watch Tesla in China and now see themselves vicariously cherish their own future involvement.
Even geopolitically speaking, TSLA could be considered a 'safe haven' investment. When even long-time investors are taken off guard by the full effect of these developments, the rest of the world has a long way to go to catch up.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Curiously, there is a short-story by sci-fi writer Alastair Reynolds called Sleepover, where the available computing power of the universe becomes in short-supply, humans being one of the main culprits, which then attracts attacks from other dimensions. The only way to stop this is to put most of humanity into a cryogenic state - thus lowering our processing needs - until the situation is resolved.
So maybe Elon's just being proactive.
The story can be found in the excellent collection Beyond the Aquila Rift - he's the best modern sci-fi writer I've found since the death of dear Iain M. Banks.
BTW, SP beginning to break out a bit - a close above $450 would be very juicy indeed.
Come on TSLA! Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!
Tesla has consistently talked about 7k / week from U.S. and still did not hit it in q4. My guess would be that they are at the upper part of the S curve OR that 7k / week is a peak rate, not an achievable average rate with days off.
From Tesla China I seem to recall:
28 cars per hour * 10 hours / shift * 2 shifts per day * 6 days per week = 3360 cars / week.
So I’m assuming 3k / week is an achievable average weekly rate, vs. the 3.36k peak rate.
Therefore 3k average / week * 13 weeks / quarter = 39k cars average / quarter. (Note that is not 39k average cars / quarter, but an average of 39k exceptional cars / quarter
The higher it goes now, the higher it will go after S&P index inclusion news.
Right now I think the biggest risk for shorts is the naked Calls they sold.
There are a few things that's very unique about shorting TSLA.
Normally, a professional short would set a hedge or stop loss as protection. For TSLA, many shorts think it's a car company selling so few cars, and losing money, so they thought there is a ceiling how hight this can go. So they think it's unnecessary to set protection.
Shorts setup a large block list so they won't hear the arguments from longs. I have never heard of something like this in the past. This helped to blind a lot of shorts for much longer.
TSLA longs understand the company well and have very high expectations, most of them will not sell at 500 or 1000.
Right now I think the biggest risk for shorts is the naked Calls they sold.
There are a few things that's very unique about shorting TSLA.
Normally, a professional short would set a hedge or stop loss as protection. For TSLA, many shorts think it's a car company selling so few cars, and losing money, so they thought there is a ceiling how hight this can go. So they think it's unnecessary to set protection.
Shorts setup a large block list so they won't hear the arguments from longs. I have never heard of something like this in the past. This helped to blind a lot of shorts for much longer.
TSLA longs understand the company well and have very high expectations, most of them will not sell at 500 or 1000.
Yeah, I think that's the most bizarre part.
I'd also add that Telsa longs have been inoculated against dips when we held down to 180. If most of us could ride from 300s down to that point, there isn't much they can possibly throw at us now that would even make us blink.
OT
Even people that care aren't doing nearly enough. I find it difficult talking about my pessimism because I don't want people to give up and make it worse, but I do feel that at best we can just mitigate the damage. A reduced lifestyle and general chaos globally vs a complete collapse.
For quite some time those who poo poo the science point out people like Al Gore to are true believers but still live in mansions. Now sure, his home is powered by green energy, but...he could have purchased a small home and used that green energy to offset carbon for a dozen other families. I'm not picking on Gore at all, he's a convenient example. Obviously in the scheme of things he is a saint compared to many. I'm guilty as well. I will be vacationing in Mexico next week. That flight dwarfs the carbon savings from my Tesla. But, why should I avoid travel when so much of the world doesn't care at all?
Climate change is a classic prisoner's dilemma situation and we know how those situations invariably end.
Probably ready in May, but then they have to pass by each car with a USB stick to load the software.
Looks like normal service has been resumed with the share price.
That would presume the existence of functioning frontal and prefrontal lobes. That's highly questionable given the stuff that comes out of their mouths.
Q4: 86,958
Knock off 1k for GF3
85,958
divide by 7k = 12.28 weeks or 86 days
Q4 only had 92 days total.
So if Fremont had more than 5 down days, they averaged 7k per week.
Further, they have increased production every quarter of 2019, so exiting would be expected to be higher than entering.
85,958 / 90 * 7 = 6,685 (only two off days) worst case average rate
So if the rate increased by 630 cars per quarter (49 per week), they exited at > 7k/wk.
@Artful Dodger's data shows a consistent 900 car per quarter rate increase
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Good thing most consumers and even purchasing departments are ignorant of anything automotive besides:
1) Does it run on regular?
2) When I step on the "gas" pedal, does it go?
3) When I turn the wheel left/right, does the vehicle go left/right?
4) When I step on the brake does it stop?
5) Does it isolate me from the road so I can dream in peace?
Because if they were more knowledgeable they would never pay for a vehicle that beefed up its frame with this addition:
Now that's some real automotive engineering there (and Ford has been adding it since 2013). Yep, she flexes too much, let's send it back to engineering so they can design a bolt-on frame stiffener! LOL!
Now that's some real quality crap.
This is the competition?
If you came up with this solution at Tesla, you would be unemployed quicker than you could say "Is it 4:20 yet?".
I don't think anyone has ever said that average production including down days would be 7k. It is the run rate.
Q4: 86,598 or ~7,250/week over 12 working weeks. (There are two major holidays in Q4.)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Haha. Long-term declining sales are normally the death knell for a company's valuation. But Ford's sales decline has been cleverly put into a good light by creating an artificial goal post of 17 million and showing how it hasn't declined under that goal post (yet). In a few short years, they will go further back, to when Ford sales entered the double digits, and highlight how sales are staying above that goalpost.
17M Goal Post is the entire US Market.
Not Ford. Ford US sales 2,422,698
BMW Group USA: 360,918 | Up 1.8%
Mercedes-Benz USA: 357,729 | Up 1.0%
Audi USA: 224,111 | Up 0.4%
Jaguar Land Rover USA: 125,787 | Up 3.0%
Volvo USA: 108,234 | Up 10.2%
Porsche USA: 61,568 | Up 7.6%
Other than Hyundai and Honda the Major OEMs were down in the USA.
It is funny to me that whatever the numbers are some want to interpret as utter doom for traditional brands.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy...
Good thing most consumers and even purchasing departments are ignorant of anything automotive besides:
1) Does it run on regular?
2) When I step on the "gas" pedal, does it go?
3) When I turn the wheel left/right, does the vehicle go left/right?
4) When I step on the brake does it stop?
5) Does it isolate me from the road so I can dream in peace?
Because if they were more knowledgeable they would never pay for a vehicle that beefed up its frame with this addition:
Now that's some real automotive engineering there (and Ford has been adding it since 2013). Yep, she flexes too much, let's send it back to engineering so they can design a bolt-on frame stiffener! LOL!
Now that's some real quality crap.
This is the competition?
What the hell is that?
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