Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gerebgraus]

The best explanation I have for that is that somebody organized it to keep the momentum going for as long as possible and to sell them puts that will expire worthless now that tesla took off. Kind of like real estate moguls denying climate change while making the right moves to benefit from people that are caught unaware that the property they just bought will be severely affected in the near future.​

I am scared that I am in the echo chamber here. I love Tesla's mission, but I love my money too. So much love!

 

[lklundin]

Here is a new Wuwa video from GF3:

The (google?) translated subtitles are not very good, but it seems that Tesla has leased additional production relevant facilities in areas near GF3, incl. the harbor.

A more accurate description (in English) of what is heard (and seen) would be interesting.

 

[JustMe]

Lol, not quite. Elon has two degrees: an undergraduate degree in economics and a second bachelor's degree in physics

Pfft! What a ridiculous combination. What kind of career could that prepare you for?

 

[Artful Dodger]

i am friends with lots of millionaires through one hobby and lots of lowlife borderline hobos through another, and i can honestly say, if anything, in my experience the correlation between money and intelligence is negative if it exists at all.

Polo and downlow?

 

[bzbee]

Elon already explained that his main reason for not taking private (yes he ha the funds) was that it would exclude many of the current retail and overseas investors. This was unacceptable for him - he knows we're long investors and doesn't want to kick us out:

Edit - I dug out the relevant tweet...

View attachment 497217

Started new TSLA habit ... adding several share to my account each closing at ATH. Helps me sleep well...
Not an advice

 

[wipster]

Pfft! What a ridiculous combination. What kind of career could that prepare you for?

At least he doesn't have an MBA...

 

[M3Rider]

Also, your math seems to be wrong. The 2/21s were bought at $2,55, and the 3/20s were $4,85. He's up $24k on the former (+31%) and $3k on the latter (+15%).

His 70x $300 puts were bought at $1,01 and are now $0,81. His 30x $350 puts were bought at $4,11 and are now $3,53. He's lost $1,4k on the former (-20%) and $1,74k (-14%) on the latter.

Because he's overwhelmingly in the calls, of course, the put losses are rather small.

The quoted post said his cost is the last column, I assume those columns in the middle are daily change or something. You can also see the shares cost of 450 in that column is unlikely, it was a current SP.

I omitted puts intentionally, because those were not the focus of the bet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you think they will slow down U.S. production once GF4 ramps?

No, I think they are building GA5 as a 'flex' line and that Fremont will stabilize at 14K/wk 3+Y steady state production, limited only by stamping capacity.

U.S. will move bigly into Cybertruck. Police and Military markets are large. China and Europe will downsize into locally made Model 2s. Both will be 1-2 M+ product lines in each of those 3 markets.

 

[StealthP3D]

Lol, not quite. Elon has two degrees: an undergraduate degree in economics and a second bachelor's degree in physics

No advanced degrees. That was my point.

Question is, how long will it be before he is knighted and respectful people address him as "Sir Elon", LOL!

(edited for correctness)

 

[StealthP3D]

I am scared that I am in the echo chamber here. I love Tesla's mission, but I love my money too. So much love!

Too much love of money will ensure you never have very much of it. Which is poetic justice.

 

[Christine69420]

Here is a new Wuwa video from GF3:

The (google?) translated subtitles are not very good, but it seems that Tesla has leased additional production relevant facilities in areas near GF3, incl. the harbor.

A more accurate description (in English) of what is heard (and seen) would be interesting.

Looks like the barracks at the nort end where the second part of GF3 will be are beeing removed.

So renting space/building at the wharf. Store cars to be shipped off? I guess to other regions of China?

 

[StealthP3D]

itd be the same as rooting for your favorite chess software. Don’t see that happening.

What? You have never done that?

I even let my Model 3 play Chess against itself. Set one to a slightly lower skill level and you can root for the underdog!

 

[jerry33]

No advanced degrees. That was my point. Question is, how long will it be before he is knighted and respectful people address him as "Sir Musk", LOL!

People who are knighted usually, though not invariably, obtain an armourial achievement first. So if you see Elon displaying one of those...

 

[kengchang]

Here is a new Wuwa video from GF3:

The (google?) translated subtitles are not very good, but it seems that Tesla has leased additional production relevant facilities in areas near GF3, incl. the harbor.

A more accurate description (in English) of what is heard (and seen) would be interesting.

Do you have the timestamp? I can translate

 

[Causalien]

It’s one thing to be book smart.

It’s a completely different thing to understanding money and investing which requires intuition, common sense, intelligence, humility to know when you are wrong, and some luck.

Having gone to Harvard, I feel like I really understand this phenomenon well. Amazing pedigrees don’t guarantee financial success. My guess is there is very little correlation. In fact overconfidence espoused by previous accolades could be detrimental.

That’s why for the most part I dont obscess where my kids go to school.

I am fighting tooth and nails to get my financial situation to match up to the percentage quartile that my IQ is in.

The financial ladder seems so much harder to climb. But I guess it'd be the same for someone born rich but with low IQ who is trying to increase their IQ.

 

[wipster]

This may have already been asked and answered, but does anyone know if the 3's and the Y's being built in Shanghai will utilize the new wiring "harness?" What about here in Fremont? Inquiring minds want to know...

 

[DrMazeppa]

Accounting question (probably already discussed; if so apologies for asking again):

Could Tesla have delivered a few Made in China M3 in late December in order to put some of the production costs in Q4? Knowing they had record deliveries with a wonderful mix of S+X and LR M3s, they may have decided to use some of that to partly cover for GF3 M3s and get an advantage for 2020 Q1 profits.
Does this make sense? Is it even possible?

 

[Causalien]

Are you implying that it's not really dumb to purposefully create an information vacuum around your investments?

So that's one level of dumbness. But to look at a five year chart and not have covered back in the $300's takes "dumb" to a whole 'nother level! Maybe some other language has a word for this level of dumbness, but English is lacking here. Maybe the Russians have a word for this?

Schadenfreude?

 

[Vad42]

Seriously, though... great news. Has to be cheaper than $55k and have at least 200 miles range? That's not "Tesla exclusive", but it sure is "Tesla friendly" Might up the total US demand by 4% or so? (NJ is a progressive state with 3% of the US population and superb Supercharger density)

sort off. Was discussing exactly this with my NJ relative today who is in market for a Tesla. LR 3 with FSD and nothing else added is $55,990. Just out of range, but maybe you can get it without FSD, and then buy that post delivery. Are they still charging extra $1K to do that?

Also Tesla might adjust prices for this, they’ve done it in other places. Will have to wait and see.

 

[ZeApelido]

So with some kind of China Model Y announcement today is the idea to build both Model 3 and Y in the building they have now, and if so how many production lines are there room for in this building? Or is the announcement that they will start building a second building for the Model Y that will be done in six months or so? Are the extra amounts in the recently secured Chines loan supposed to go toward a new building or only production lines in the one already done?

Either way, can't see how any announcement can be anything but positive for tomorrows market.

Not to beat a dead ICE, but this could be yet another way to intimate the immiment release of the Model Y in the U.S. without currently Osborning Model 3 sales.

If they are going to announce the beginning of construction of Model Y facility and production equipment at GF3, then that indicates they are highly confident that the Model Y production process in Fremont is going to go smoothly.

Which means it must be close to ready for real production.