How dare you say he dances as bad as Elaine. Take it back!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
How dare you say he dances as bad as Elaine. Take it back!
sundaymorning
Active Member
Observing these past 15 years there are several behaviors we can reliably be certain to see from Elon. One if them is putting the accelerator even harder through the floorboard when things start going really well. Maybe call that the "Dance Like No one's watching, then get up next morning and start another new company" philosophy!
Can Tesla IR reach out to dancing with the stars and couple him with a Chinese actress?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
And of course, the problem is that volatility is a moving target and cannot accurately predict the future - even in the short term. Just because volatility is the best objectively verifiable proxy for risk doesn't mean it's a good proxy for risk. In fact, volatility leaves huge chunks of known risk factors completely out of the equation. These are factors that a knowledgeable human can incorporate into their strategies that no formula ever could. Using volatility as a proxy for risk is so misleading as to the actual risk it's not even funny. Especially when speaking of true long-term risk (but also short-term risk to a lesser degree).
In fact, this kind of "financial wisdom" is precisely why I have such a dim view of most financial "advisors". If I had followed their rules, formulas and theories, I would still be a fisherman (if I were still alive). I would love to see them apply their statistical theories and formulas to the problem of which way to drive your slow fishing boat before the fishery opens each morning in order to maximize your catch over fishing grounds spanning so many thousands of miles. In other words, as you travel at 7 knots to the area with the theoretical highest catch per hour (at the moment), you are effectively reducing your ability to access areas in the opposite direction in the following day or two. And how many fish you are going to catch per hour in any of these areas is a moving target and uncertain. Investing is much like commercial fishing in that it really doesn't lend itself to formulas and rules of thumb. Both are complex environments with many unknowns. And even the "knowns" are often far from being quantifiable. Yet, in both fishing and investing, some people consistently outperform others.
But how is a financial advisor going to make money if he can't pretend to have a "safe" and reasonable system to build wealth? I'm a big fan of the scientific method, statistics and measurements but take a very dim view when these things are used to represent things they are not capable of representing.
The bottom line is your post would have been accurate and at least somewhat useful had you not used volatility as a proxy for risk.
MartinAustin
Active Member
From what I saw he could compete with Elaine from Seinfeld...
I'm watching the stock grow and I'm wondering how fragile the price is. It seems to jump at any and every bit of positive news. So when will the correction take place, before or sometime after the financials are reported?
I guess that's a dumb question. It only takes a bit of bad news. If profits are just a touch under, the stock will tank. If some bad news about deliveries comes out, it will tank. I'm getting nervous and thinking about selling rather than waiting for my purchases to reach the 1 year capital gains limit. I figured the deliveries would be good, but the profits are always a crap shoot. Then I'd have to wait through Q1 results as well.
At this point I'm looking at around 75% gain. Not sure the current price level will even need bad news to correct.
I guess that's a dumb question. It only takes a bit of bad news. If profits are just a touch under, the stock will tank. If some bad news about deliveries comes out, it will tank. I'm getting nervous and thinking about selling rather than waiting for my purchases to reach the 1 year capital gains limit. I figured the deliveries would be good, but the profits are always a crap shoot. Then I'd have to wait through Q1 results as well.
At this point I'm looking at around 75% gain. Not sure the current price level will even need bad news to correct.
The Accountant
Active Member
I'll see that and raise you to $467
Sparky
Member
Foundation Capital guy towards the end... "I will say that if I had to bet where the competition is going to come from it's going to come from China... it's doubly smart that Elon is in [China]... Go right to the home territory of your biggest competitor... he's not going to Detroit, he's going to Shanghai."
On topic. Had a bit of cash left in my trading account, bought this morning at MMD $456.10. With all my patient trading over the last 18 mos, I now own the same # of shares I owned in Summer '18. sigh. Overall acct is better due to other buys but could have saved a lot of calories spent guessing.
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mickificki
Member
Ugh...must...focus...at...work...no...tsla...ticker....
Yep.
Complete with the people that sell to lock in gains, and then buy in later at a higher price.
Buddy, you need to stop reading my mind, it's a privacy issue!
mltv
Member
A little more than $2b more to be worth as much as GM + F
Thanks so much for sharing Curt. This is the kind of Tesla coverage on CNBC we’ve all been waiting years for. Kinda hard to believe how many people didn’t see Tesla’s China opportunity coming when it was so obvious for well over a year now.
We're getting higher in share price quicker than I thought we would before earnings. Not out of the realm of possibility that we hit 500 before the end of next week. I was thinking we'd hit 500 the week of earnings or about 3-4 trading days before earnings at which point a short/bear attack would take it back to mid to low 400's.
I'm personally hoping that shorts make a new push of shorting when we hit 500 only for Q4 earnings to absolutely destroy expectations. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact that Tesla made/delivered so many more cars than Q3 without any help from Giga 3 means more margin expansion due to more cars sold verses fixed depreciation numbers..... verses needed Giag 3 help to reach those some exact numbers. Then add in much higher S/X numbers and no discounting for any models throughout Q4 and also price increases.....yeah I think earnings are going to blow away people.
Just need that Q1 guidance of profit and steady production/delivery numbers to ice the cake.
I'm personally hoping that shorts make a new push of shorting when we hit 500 only for Q4 earnings to absolutely destroy expectations. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact that Tesla made/delivered so many more cars than Q3 without any help from Giga 3 means more margin expansion due to more cars sold verses fixed depreciation numbers..... verses needed Giag 3 help to reach those some exact numbers. Then add in much higher S/X numbers and no discounting for any models throughout Q4 and also price increases.....yeah I think earnings are going to blow away people.
Just need that Q1 guidance of profit and steady production/delivery numbers to ice the cake.
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Good point, however, for longer road trips, there needs to be sufficient capacity for overnight charging to be able to ‘fill’ the battery in time. A 7kw charger adds 20 miles per hour to my S. If the battery had a range of 500 miles, it would take 25 hours to charge from empty.
MartinAustin
Active Member
...and after that we only need about $22Billion more to equal GM+F+FCA.
At which point we start to call them the "Detroit Small Three"
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