Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Yeah, I think that's the wrong move, when your intension is to 'Osborne' Mercedes C class / Audi 4 / BMW 3 sales.

Better to have those customers on Tesla's waiting list than in a ICE dealership's showroom...

Cheers!

Good point, as long as the Chinese are willing to wait as patiently as early M3 reservation holders did in the US.

 

[gerebgraus]

If Tesla is indeed receiving 1000 orders a day at one or more stores, expect them to adjust to higher than 3K/week as soon as possible--but yes, they'll need to source battery capacity to do that. I actually think they should have left the MIC Model 3 price higher until battery capacity could meet demand, then lower the price to keep the two in check.

I actually think Tesla probably already planned for capacity beyond 3k/wk, but only announced 3k/wk both due to uncertainty and ensure that they underpromise.

Take this rumor with a grain of salt China has likely significant demand though, but not 1000/ store in a day. Chinese rumor mill is even better than the American.

 

[VValleyEV]

I am still awful at finding/navigating any TMC forums/threads aside from this one.

1. Can someone point me to the European sales numbers wiki thread, I think using registration stats? Shows country-by country sales states by month/quarter/year. Last time there I saw that the December numbers were in. This time I will mark it watched, honest.

2. Are there any numbers yet comparing EV sales by brand for each country? I saw that as of Nov the Model 3 was very close to the Zoe in Germany, looked like a photo finish coming up.

3. If there is a general discussion somewhere on TMC navigating/searching/filtering, please point me to it.

Thanks.

 

[Chocochip]

On cue, we have our MMD. So predictable..

Ladies and gentlemen, the Market has concluded the daily MMD. You may now unfasten your seatbelts.

 

[johnnybgood888]

If Tesla is indeed receiving 1000 orders a day at one or more stores, expect them to adjust to higher than 3K/week as soon as possible--but yes, they'll need to source battery capacity to do that. I actually think they should have left the MIC Model 3 price higher until battery capacity could meet demand, then lower the price to keep the two in check.

I actually think Tesla probably already planned for capacity beyond 3k/wk, but only announced 3k/wk both due to uncertainty and ensure that they underpromise.

Darn it, the shorts were right, we do have a demand problem! There is too much demand! Sell now!

 

[Todd Burch]

Take this rumor with a grain of salt China has likely significant demand though, but not 1000/ store in a day. Chinese rumor mill is even better than the American.

I think 1000/day total is possible. Not a sustainable rate, but I could believe that initially. I hear China has a lot of people.

 

[JusRelax]

Ladies and gentlemen, the Market has concluded the daily MMD. You may now unfasten your seatbelts.

Wait.. we're supposed to take our seatbelts OFF for the rocket launch?

 

[MP3Mike]

If Tesla is indeed receiving 1000 orders a day at one or more stores, expect them to adjust to higher than 3K/week as soon as possible--but yes, they'll need to source battery capacity to do that. I actually think they should have left the MIC Model 3 price higher until battery capacity could meet demand, then lower the price to keep the two in check.

The rumor is that the 1,000/day order is across all of China, not from one store:

Not sure whether this Twitter rumor from yesterday got posted already:

Mickey Du on Twitter

"Visited 2 $TSLA China stores. According to reps, Tesla doing 1000+ DAILY orders across China after recent price decrease of SR+ to sub 300k RMB after subsidies. China, world’s largest auto market already supply constrained + exciting 2H 2020 ahead as GF3 Shanghai ramps production"

​

 

[jeewee3000]

Address the forest ants, please and thanks. And how come no mention of earthworms or beetles? I mean, if you want to throw around the word hypocrite, you best be wanting equal rights for all the insects in the ground, in the trees, and in the air on that piece of property.

Relocating animals is trivial, really? I guess that all depends on if you’re the animal being relocated or not.

You likely missed my post where I suggested the conservation organization simply approach Elon about building a very specific bat habitat right there on the property. That’s actually better for the bats than being relocated and here’s why - bats have strong homing instincts and often simply return after relocation even from hundreds of miles away. Now when they return, there’s no home for them.

And FYI, since you felt the need to call out the USA, bat colonies are legally protected here and relocating (or killing) bats is actually illegal in the US. Exceptions not withstanding like a sick colony.

I did miss that post of yours, and that is a good idea.

Regarding the forest ants, I concur with @Donatas earlier post.

Relocating animals is trivial in the long run, I said. Big difference to just "trivial". Even then, it's just paying a certaing organisation to relocate them for you. Probably included in the paperwork already, Teslrati just wants to make a big deal out of a nothingburger.

And I never wanted to call out the USA in a derogatory way. I'm actually a big fan of how they run their national parks (I've only visited about five of them, close to your region, but all five where magnificent). And the US is (just like the EU) a big place that of course cannot be generalized. We just do for the sake of arguing.

I never wanted to delve this deep into the post by @mars_or_bust, simply because the Teslarati article we are discussing is so vague and without detailed sources. The article reads as if Tesla's progress is halted unexpectedly when I'm pretty sure all these details/obligations regarding local wildlife have been known to Tesla upon purchasing the land.

 

[mact3333]

$480 as a "temporary top"? I'm LMFAO at that for two reasons.

1) Never got close to $480
2) What's the significance of a "temporary" top? How long would it last (when it hits it)?

And it's NORMAL for shareholders to display pleasure when a primary holding is killing it. It would be unusual if shareholders were seeing outstanding gains and they DIDN'T display pleasure. If that puts you on "full alert" you are going to get stopped out of the longest and most profitable bull runs to ever grace the public markets! In other words, that's the dumbest alert signal I've ever heard of. All it can signal is that a stock has had well above average gains. It has no predictive power for how long the gains will continue.

Trust me nothing would make me happier than for TSLKA to go straight to 1000.00 but Ive seen euphoria MB's before....and if you don't see the resistance coming at 480-500(may last a few days or few months ya never know), that just means you dont understand how to read charts and that's ok. Personally I will hedge my longs about at this point. You're prob better off just holding long for the next 10 years(not being sarcastic either). Elon has already paid for my car several times over the past 3 months so trust me I am rooting for him over the long run(see my join date), but if your are nota bit cautious now after looking at the charts over past 3-6 months, then you probably haven't traded many volatile stocks before...jmho...but in the end, we're on the same side...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I did miss that post of yours, and that is a good idea.

Regarding the forest ants, I concur with @Donatas earlier post.

Relocating animals is trivial in the long run, I said. Big difference to just "trivial". Even then, it's just paying a certaing organisation to relocate them for you. Probably included in the paperwork already, Teslrati just wants to make a big deal out of a nothingburger.

And I never wanted to call out the USA in a derogatory way. I'm actually a big fan of how they run their national parks (I've only visited about five of them, close to your region, but all five where magnificent). And the US is (just like the EU) a big place that of course cannot be generalized. We just do for the sake of arguing.

I never wanted to delve this deep into the post by @mars_or_bust, simply because the Teslarati article we are discussing is so vague and without detailed sources. The article reads as if Tesla's progress is halted unexpectedly when I'm pretty sure all these details/obligations regarding local wildlife have been known to Tesla upon purchasing the land.

As usual the story about the bats and ants will turn out to be just hot air. They will move the bats and ants and it will not cause any significant delay. It's just like the stories around the Nurburgring ('Tesla doesn't have any spot, so it cannot race until next year') and the European and Chineses sales permits ('Tesla doesn't have the license, so cannot sell any cars'): people fret too much and don't understand what Tesla as a company is able to accomplish when dealing with authorities.

 

[StealthP3D]

You likely missed my post where I suggested the conservation organization simply approach Elon about building a very specific bat habitat right there on the property. That’s actually better for the bats than being relocated and here’s why - bats have strong homing instincts and often simply return after relocation even from hundreds of miles away. Now when they return, there’s no home for them.

The obvious solution is to add the world's largest belfry to GF3. Right in the middle. That way, when the bats return, Tesla really will have "bats in the belfry".

Shorts will be happy, longs and conservationists will be happy. Elon wins again!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I did miss that post of yours, and that is a good idea.

Regarding the forest ants, I concur with @Donatas earlier post.

Relocating animals is trivial in the long run, I said. Big difference to just "trivial". Even then, it's just paying a certaing organisation to relocate them for you. Probably included in the paperwork already, Teslrati just wants to make a big deal out of a nothingburger.

And I never wanted to call out the USA in a derogatory way. I'm actually a big fan of how they run their national parks (I've only visited about five of them, close to your region, but all five where magnificent). And the US is (just like the EU) a big place that of course cannot be generalized. We just do for the sake of arguing.

I never wanted to delve this deep into the post by @mars_or_bust, simply because the Teslarati article we are discussing is so vague and without detailed sources. The article reads as if Tesla's progress is halted unexpectedly when I'm pretty sure all these details/obligations regarding local wildlife have been known to Tesla upon purchasing the land.

 

[AlMc]

Impatiently waiting for the Moody's upgrade on Tesla's debt. The downgrade started a cascade of downward pressure on the SP long ago...About time they realized Tesla can pay off the debt easily AND IF they wanted to the line is around the corner (OK, the world) to hand them more money.

 

[Lessmog]

I think @JRP3 was practicing wordsmithing without a degree in wordsmithing. I vote we crucify him right here. Even if you enjoy expressing yourself in ways that you lack talent, you should refrain from subjecting innocent folk to your amateur attempts.

And the nerve of that Elon! Funny thing is, his dance brought joy to me because he owned the dance. The professional dancer posted by JRP3 just gave me the creeps with all his weird muscle twitches. I couldn't enjoy it and it seemed he wasn't enjoying it as much as he was just showing off. I made it about 30 seconds.

_______________________________________________________________________

During the China event, I noticed some things that Elon accomplished that made me realize how hard he works to succeed. Elon didn't do this to gratify himself, he did it because he puts every fiber of his body and mind into making Tesla succeed. This is why it rubs me the wrong way when people make fun of what he's doing.

1) While dancing he successfully projected an air of goofy fun. He knew this would be broadcast around the world. This makes people associate Tesla cars with goofy fun. It counteracts the stodgy, snobbish feeling Tesla detractors try to associate with Teslas. This was no accident - he was working overtime for all our benefit.

2) The event was heavy with factory employees. He knows he has to culture a work environment where workers get along with one another to succeed. During the presentation, he was very gracious to the workers and let them know how much he appreciated them and wanted them to be able to be themselves while working. He said he knows some people like to do quirky things and make their workstations a little quirky. He let them know he understood and shrugged his shoulders while saying, "I mean, well, look at me?" The workers respect Elon giving them their autonomy and make it so they WANT to do a good job. It also sends the message that one worker shouldn't pick on another worker just because they look or act different. Or are nerdy, or not cool. It's to be accepted. Pre-empting employee personality conflicts, making things fun and fine-tuning what it means to work at Tesla G3 are all signs of a brilliant leader.

None of this is accidental. Elon is a brilliant leader which is hard to come by. The event wasn't even designed as an employee event but Elon used it that way. And the quirky dancing was priceless free publicity for Tesla that changes the way potential customers think about the product. I could go on and on but I'll just end it by saying there is a reason why Elon is succeeding. Because he's brilliant, he works harder and longer and smarter than any other CEO. Because he knows the planet depends upon it. Elon gets it.
______________________________________________________________________________

THAT'S A VERY DEEP ANALYSIS INDEED! Eleventy etc.
Should go into every curriculum.
Big, big thanks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think 1000/day total is possible. Not a sustainable rate, but I could believe that initially. I hear China has a lot of people.

Oh ur right, but look closer at the 'Chinglish' source: 1000 orders / day / store.

Clearly not what's happening. AFAIK even in China, all orders are placed through the website,

Clearly, we need to recalibrate our interpretation of news coming from or about China.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

The rumor is that the 1,000/day order is across all of China, not from one store:

Right, but it doesn't change the point. That's still 7k/wk. Question is, how much of that is initial pent-up demand...and how much of what is initial pent-up demand will be compensated for as more people drive the car and demand goes up thru word-of-mouth?

 

[Mike Smith]

Warren Buffett has $130 billion in cash. He's looking for a deal - CNN

'Buffett's affinity for Apple (AAPL) (now the firm's largest holding) suggests that Berkshire could acquire a tech company, according to Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer of Berkshire Hathaway shareholder Tengler Wealth Management.'

 

[TheTalkingMule]

When the shorts have partially covered we can start talking about a cap or new range. That hasn't happened yet that I can tell.

Should we be approaching $500 with so much remaining short interest? No. But we are. The big boys are buying into the next AMZN and no one in their right mind is selling significant chunks. This is going to take a while to slow, the spring gas been loading for nearly a year!

 

[Todd Burch]

Shorty workin' hard today. Bet we see another day with >62% of volume due to shorts (see Papafox's thread).