Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Leo9]

Spiegel closing his short position marked the top ahah.
But I'm sure he will short again at a lower price and cover again at a new all time high.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Thread is now open.

I’m not sure what tools you guys have, but is there any way to sticky the most recent moderator message(or all moderator messages the user hasn’t read), so they’re visible on any given page? Would help with people missing the memo on forbidden subjects.

 

[AudubonB]

Long-term investors aren't hugely concerned with market timing.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

MODERATOR WARNING -

Certain posts that absolutely did not belong here were entered yesterday. They were locked out with the instructions to (yet again....) take all discussion that pertained to Mr Musk's personal life to the "Elon Musk" thread.

Moderation posts are consistently written in impossible-to-miss colors. Anyone foolish enough to post something that is not relevant to this thread without first having checked through any pages that have appeared since he or she last was present is likely to get his or her head handed to him or her. In other words: ignorance is no excuse.

So:

1. Read and Heed Moderators' instructions whether you like them or not. Including the contents of this post.

2. In order that ALL have the opportunity to GET THIS MESSAGE, this thread will be locked for the next ten minutes. Or so.

~~~Vetinari~~~

Abuse of power!!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Regarding the continued ramp of production, the one question that is a mystery to me is where they will get the batteries in the next year. Panasonic head of GF1 says they will ramp from 35 GWh to 54 GWh, but where will they put the machines? Isn't GF1 already packed to the gills? Is Tesla going to turn over part of its area for Panasonic's use?

Panasonic only says they could ramp to 54GWh, but they didn't say they will.

We're waiting for Tesla to tell us the answers to all these things. I'm guessing battery and powertrain day.

Here's what Panasonic said on Dec 30, 2019:

Panasonic: Increasing Battery Output To 54 GWh At Tesla GF1 Is Possible

“To build its team, Panasonic recruited chemical engineers from non-battery sectors and trained them to handle lithium-ion batteries. Now it has 3,000 people who operate the machinery and about 200 technical assistants from Japan to keep the plant running 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.”

“For us to move to [54GWh] should not be so hard. We now have the know how to do it in quite a high volume environment”​

P.S. Today's market action tells us less about weak longs triggering stop losses, and more about how much money is backing the big Shortzes. This is being done by large brokerages like UBS and their ilk who DO NOT CARE about anything except money.

Courage, Willow! Stay strong! They'll crack. The CIO of Japan's Government Pension Fund is now following Elon on Twitter ( h/t @KarenRei ). That's REAL money right there. (EDIT: Karen, I mean )

 

[mongo]

Does anyone think that they will use the new casting machine on the Model Y?

Machine for rear assembly that goes from 70 stamping to 1-2 castings: yes (eventually?)
Machine for fully cast car: no

 

[humbaba]

So NASDAQ saw a sell off, but I can't see why?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Analyst downgrades

 

[Tslynk67]

Ugly today. Decided to take 5/10 Jan 21 $650 off the table for 35x profit.

The other 5 I'll let ride, looking to buy back in with the profits, maybe with 2022's.

Anyway, hedging the risk a bit.

 

[KarenRei]

Strange to see such a harsh reaction about a topic that I hadn't seen a single complaint about. But whatever. Back to our normally scheduled discussion.

 

[Driver Dave]

Those analysts have been wrong all this time, not sure why the market is following them now.

 

[Remster32]

Here are Baird's base assumptions for 2020-22. I think they're being conservative, there's a lot of room for upside between China and Model Y.

 

[AudubonB]

I’m not sure what tools you guys have, but is there any way to sticky the most recent moderator message(or all moderator messages the user hasn’t read), so they’re visible on any given page? Would help with people missing the memo on forbidden subjects.

We've been working specifically on that. HOWEVER - this is an INVESTORS' forum; if anyone here is interested in what others' views are of the market, then reading the forum makes sense rather than just spouting of-the-moment, off-the-cuff gibberish. If others' writings are not of interest...then it might be best to place oneself in front of the bathroom mirror and speak to the audience.

Were such reading to occur, not only would the number of posts diminish and the quality improve, but Mod warnings would not be missed. Yes, Mods are aware of how difficult it is to read everything given this fire hydrant of postings. In the interim, as strongly suggested, skimming through missed pages ALWAYS will reveal any Mod posts that have occurred.

 

[EV Promoter]

Anyone else tired of winning yet?

 

[Christine69420]

477-475 area should be a buy signal

Good idea! Picked up 1 share @474.32 since going away for a long weekend. Who knows the SP after.

I kinda like people taking their profits before the ER date. Getting it out of the way. But then I have no idea so perhaps something else is going on.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

Machine for rear assembly that goes from 70 stamping to 1-2 castings: yes (eventually?)
Machine for fully cast car: no

I agree and suspect a lot of the (baseless?) excitement about reduced vehicle wiring and giant stamping machine is overestimating how quickly this will be introduced to the actual production line. This is some seriously difficult engineering stuff and I think Elon may have overestimated (see: flufferbot) certain things like this in the early days of the Model 3 ramp that he is loath to repeat the same mistaks again with Model Y.

My completely baseless opinion is that they're going to build Model Y much like Model 3, incorporating all they've learned over the last ~2 years. There may be some small tweaks and efficiencies gained here and there, but I just can't see them potentially making a big production line change like the giant stamping machine or vehicle cabling during the initial ramp, but more of a "ver 2.0" revision when they have a little more breathing room for unanticipated setbacks. (FTR, I don't believe it will necessarily be a ver 1.0 -> ver 2.0 change, but slowly iterative like Tesla has always done to the point where it's not even totally clear where ver 1.0 process ended and ver 2.0 began.)

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observer reporting ~ hey you, this is me I apologize if someone beat me to the punch on this article.

5 things Tesla bears keep getting wrong about this stock

I love this article, if for no other reason than the picture of an X (not my X) propped up nose over a stuffed bear. Yeah, today is a correction ~ frankly I expected it yesterday based on trumpeting news.

I have hunkered down on this stock because I could see through the crap; and was willing to take all the T-bones; no matter how badly they hurt. No, I do not need yet another merit badge, and no I do not need another MSM (army medal). I have taken subliminal heat from my financial conservative in-law-family view. Mathematical wizards, but want their money safe all but under the mattress. If I had not ceased the moment, well who knows who my in-law-family would have been.

I am here because there is nothing else worth believing in ~ period. And, my grandchildren (GrandPups); yes, just two, are what I am protecting.

If you asked me back in 1968 where I would be today; I can guarantee I would not have had a clue and USAA insurance statistically did not have me here either. Just grateful to be here to enjoy the excitement and bask in the sun. I had my 15 seconds of fame long, long ago in a galaxy far, far away.

FYI ~ Tesla still has a long road ahead.

Sony Surprises With Electric Car Prototype - Tesla Motors Club
Sony's story is just beginning; they have a longer road ahead if they are to become competitive.

Ford and GM gave Tesla the middle finger for a long time; now it is time for them to smell the roses.

I have always enjoyed the path right up the center, let others take the credit ~ I just finish the race. Just like my freshman year, one month into my first cross country season. Coach bumped me up to JV after my first meet. The second was an invitational run on CSULB campus where out of 300 runners, I lost miserably ~ okay, very last. At home that night, with my head in my lap, my Dad said, "well at least you finished."

Tesla will finish ~ as promised. Tesla is forcing Ford, GM, BMW, Volvo and so on; to dig themselves out of the mud and into leaning forward in the foxhole.

 

[ABCTG]

It's been revised;

$2000 for an EV

curiously more for a fool cell vehicle; $4500

CVRP Eligible Vehicles

 

[Todd Burch]

Seems to have been following NASDAQ. TSLA now recovering along with NASDAQ.

 

[mongo]

OT, but I'll give myself one response

I agree and suspect a lot of the (baseless?) excitement about reduced vehicle wiring and giant stamping machine is overestimating how quickly this will be introduced to the actual production line. This is some seriously difficult engineering stuff and I think Elon may have overestimated (see: flufferbot) certain things like this in the early days of the Model 3 ramp that he is loath to repeat the same mistaks again with Model Y.

My completely baseless opinion is that they're going to build Model Y much like Model 3, incorporating all they've learned over the last ~2 years. There may be some small tweaks and efficiencies gained here and there, but I just can't see them potentially making a big production line change like the giant stamping machine or vehicle cabling during the initial ramp, but more of a "ver 2.0" revision when they have a little more breathing room for unanticipated setbacks. (FTR, I don't believe it will necessarily be a ver 1.0 -> ver 2.0 change, but slowly iterative like Tesla has always done to the point where it's not even totally clear where ver 1.0 process ended and ver 2.0 began.)

Regarding wiring;
I think the major differentiator is Ghromann. They would have been able to full construct and vet any automated wire harness assembly machines needed. Even if not fully automated, the mid voltage networked topology would be cheaper on a piece cost basis and could be installed by hand.

Also, a running change of this type, if automated, would be a pain to schedule with a running line. So if it were introduced later, I'd expect it to happen on the next iteration of the Y line (GF3 or 4) as opposed to at Fremont.