Would you share what you think will be driving this huge Q4 profit so we can get on the same page? I like Jack Rickard's take - profit will be good but forward guidance and other reveals is what will really drive the share price higher. Musk has buffed his credibility rating so any guidance he provides will be more powerful. I'm actually guessing he will be very subdued with it, continuing his "under-promise/over-deliver" theme. If there is anything powerful said, it will not be because he talked it up to the hilt, it will be because the nature of what he reveals really is powerful.
Here's the thing: a small improvement in margins that's sustainable is worth more to market participants in the long run than a large one-off profit beat based on one-time revenue recognition or a deal like the FCA deal. These things can have a positive influence on the share price but not to the degree that margin improvement can. It's all about showing they can make and sell cars with good and consistently increasing margins with expanding volumes.
China did not ramp production in Q4 sufficiently for margins to be meaningful and Musk is unlikely to say China margins will be higher (even if he knows they will be). I say this because he has previously said they will be roughly in-line with Freemont margins and there is no advantage to saying otherwise now (even if it's apparent to him). However, I'm thinking that could be a VERY important driver of the share price following Q1.
