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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The computers will always beat you on trading strategies. Your only advantage (at the moment) is that those computers know nothing about the company or its actual value. Invest based on that.

So true. A colleague spotted me checking the pre-market in a meeting today and asked if it was $TSLA (he know I drive a Model X). He said he'd like to invest in it but it's "losing money every year"... I started to rant about capital-intensive, high-growth, but quickly gave up...
 
When can I buy one of those? 2021?

And that will get me a total rated range of 192 miles plus how much? That would be great if I didn't have to stop to Supercharge every 1-2 hours. Oh, wait...The 4S won't work on the Supercharger Network either? o_O
Nope, but you can get all your Walmart shopping done while you charge your Porsche at 50 kW.

oh wait, no place to load the stuff...
 
I like Ross, but I just lost a good deal of respect after reading the tweet “There are realized gains and paper”, implying that realized gains are somehow inherently more valuable.
I lost respect for him when he couldn't handle the drop last year and sold out his position. He was bad mouthing Tesla after he sold. Then after Tesla price recovered and stabilized from the low, Gerber began singing Tesla praises again. I watched couple TV interviews he did recently and all the Bull case facts he stated were full of errors. Kind of errors true followers of Tesla would know and not make when presenting it on TV. IMO, he's all talk and only cares about self promotion.
 
Curt in this case the entire market dipped sharply, not just TSLA. I don't believe TSLA is big enough (yet) to spook the entire market on a downward move :)
Yes, but TSLA went down at the rate of 4x over the NASDAQ-100. That is the thumbprint of manipulation on the scale of the SP.

EDIT: SP recovered now to pre-Boomberg level
$540.86 +16.00 3.04%
 
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I like Ross, but I just lost a good deal of respect after reading the tweet “There are realized gains and paper”, implying that realized gains are somehow inherently more valuable.

yeah, what is that supposed to mean? we're not talking about some white elephant asset that might be difficult to unload. it's a publicly traded stock!
 
Well, all the discussion here did not change my opinion much regarding trading TSLA.

I will hold on to my TSLA shares with an iron grip for the next few years and my retirement account has an even longer time horizon of 20 years, so yeah, lets roll - not selling until I see I can retire early.

Most of my calls have are 2022 Jan & Jun, so I will ride out the volatility with these, hopefully.

I was somewhat affected by the peer pressure, especially considering how stupid it was for me to recently sell 320c, 420c & 600c for having no vision of bigger appreciation.

So, here's my sacrifice to the altar of insanity
View attachment 500054

That's $2,200 that I pretty much kissed goodbye.

What I'm thinking:
1. @anthonyj is expecting 3x profit in Q4 compared to Q3.
I saw couple other references to 2x, including one by DaveT. 2x may be sufficient to screw with many analysts/funds heads and justify higher future valuation.
2. If EM talks about 4-5 years horizon in ER as he intended, this may demonstrate the leaving train to some passengers still in doubts whether to get in.
3. Sounds like the Y may move up yet again. My understanding was ~end of Q2 for mid volume production- like 1k/w, it currently feels like this may advance by a couple of months.

These things give some chance to those $2.2k.

Q4 might be the last time when coming things are not yet fully expected and EM's credibility is not fully vetted...
I truly wish you luck with these. It is not just that I am such a nice well meaning person, but possibly even more that if these expire in the money my much more conservative bets will pay off insane well as well. On the other hand maybe the only reason is that I am such a nice person.
 
Stock has had plenty of reason to pull back today: valuation concerns :rolleyes:, moving up too quickly, today the reality of there really isn't a tariff deal which led to a macro decline, profit taking...…...yup it's still going strong. Considering Earnings is just around the corner, we may stay 2X or 3X average trading volume for the next two weeks o_O
 
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I like Ross, but I just lost a good deal of respect after reading the tweet “There are realized gains and paper”, implying that realized gains are somehow inherently more valuable.
Ross is a Tesla fanboi spokesperson. I do not think I have learned anything from him. His job is not being an analyst. His main job is to sell his financial services. He exploits the free screen time to talk about Tesla advertize his services. Good for him. He is definitely not worse than most talking heads.
 
When can I buy one of those? 2021?

And that will get me a total rated range of 192 miles plus how much? That would be great if I didn't have to stop to Supercharge every 1-2 hours. Oh, wait...The 4S won't work on the Supercharger Network either? o_O

Well... supposedly this year. But no word on range. It has a smaller battery pack with an option for the same size as the Turbos. (79 kWh vs 93 kWh)

I say it will be interesting because the low end, still more than $100k, may have worse range. Porsche has demonstrated a careless disregard for efficiency, but they do have a much lower power for the models.

Still, here's my guess:

Turbo S; $185k; 192 miles (IIRC)
Turbo; $150k; 201 miles
Turbo 4S; $110k; 250 miles (my guess)
Turbo 4S; $104k; 212 miles (my guess)
 
I truly wish you luck with these. It is not just that I am such a nice well meaning person, but possibly even more that if these expire in the money my much more conservative bets will pay off insane well as well. On the other hand maybe the only reason is that I am such a nice person.
The tough part will be to not chicken out if this continues
Screenshot_20200114-124917_Firstrade.jpg


Idk, maybe I sell half (don't know which half though, they are asymmetrical) to not lose all before ER?
 
We've now broken through 540 seven times today. Let's see if we can stay there this time.

In the long run definitely not. Short run? Who knows?

I hope so. So far i have had a nice 3 months watching $TSLA price.
Bought few shares every now and then the last few months, always at "all-time high"

you guys are great keeping morale up and increasing my resistance to sell and take profit
 
Shorts lost 1.25 billion dollars yesterday. yikes

The tough part will be to not chicken out if this continues
View attachment 500105

Idk, maybe I sell half (don't know which half though, they are asymmetrical) to not lose all before ER?
I'm having the same argument in my own head. My 2/7 and 3/15 calls are waayy up. I worried we see a big dip, but also worried that we see a huge jump and I miss out on serious cash. I think it comes down to your expectations around the ER, and how much you will be mad if you lose $X vs how mad you would be if you lost a gain of $Y.

If the ER is blah, then we dip or stay in the low 500s or upper 400s until end of Q1 I assume. If ER is great, then sky is the limit as that suggests Q1 will be good, S&P inclusion happens...but don't listen to me. There are far more intelligent/experienced investors here and even they don't know what will happen.
 
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Yes, but TSLA went down at the rate of 4x over the NASDAQ-100. That is the thumbprint of manipulation on the scale of the SP.

I'm not so sure. The price has risen so far, so fast... I'm sure there are a ton of people thinking "crap, if anything at all bad happens, there's going to be a giant drop" The overreaction to a sudden macro event doesn't surprise me a bit, and I don't think any deeper theories are needed.

That said, I'm just holding my modest stake and happy to see the price heading right back up again. :)
 
Barron's - 12 minutes ago: Here’s What to Do if You Missed Out on the Tesla Rally

Excerpts:

Investors experiencing the fear of missing out, or FOMO, can still buy Tesla shares if they think that global sales of electric vehicles are at an inflection point...

But, as one portfolio manager -- an off-again, on-again Tesla shareholder -- told Barron's, investors can still buy in, so long as they believe in the long-term prospects for the company. They key is to manage risk. And risk with a stock as volatile as Tesla can be mitigated by position size.