Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Well I bought them yesterday for $520, so I'd feel stupid selling them today, although if there are bargains to be had in calls then I take the point.

One good news is that there's no capital gains on shares in Belgium, at least not on personal trades. This is my company account though and that does mean that profits attract are treated as taxable income, but it's only 10%, so no big deal.

OT: Your idea of company taxation of share gains is totally different than what my accountant told me (here’s link that says the same as what my accountant says:http://lemonconsult.be/blog/beleggen-aandelen-vennootschap-hou-rekening-strengere-regels/). I sold my TSLA shares 2 years ago because of the new regime, in which losses are not deductible, and gains are taxable at the regular tax rate. I switched to deep-in-the-money LEAPs, since options losses are at least deductible (unlike share losses), the gains are still taxable at the regular tax rate.

 

[erha]

I sold about 12% of my TSLA stock today. No longer using margin and I’m trying to put some free cash aside in case of lower prices.

I haven’t read much in this thread lately, but I would guess the sentiment is pretty positive here. I think it is a good time to sell some stocks. We’re almost at 100 billion which is a really high valuation. In addition a financial crises is long overdue.

On this post yesterday I got:

• 9 funnies
• 5 informative
• 4 dislikes
• 2 likes

Today opened about 30 USD down from when this was posted. I'm not saying that TSLA is necessarily going down from here. I've had pretty much all my money in Tesla since 2012, and I'm still super bull. But I do find it strange that it is a bit controversial to recommend selling a small portion of the portfolio after the stock has risen about 200% in half a year.

 

[JusRelax]

I could point you to some flat Earth sites with way more than 30 pages of " reasonable sounding" info if you like.

Jonas is a paid chimp....pure and simple.

How could somebody rate this quote as "helpful".

I read through the post multiple times trying to find the link to 30 pages worth of flat Earth sites but never found one.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I love that any sniff of buying drives the SP up $10. Some poor saps trying to cover at $500 watches it pop to $510. Tomorrow could be a bloodbath of short covering.

Tomorrow will be interesting if we close in this $510 range. Will the stock be manipulated down further on low volume? Or will it bounce hard off of today's bullish recovery?

 

[Fact Checking]

On this post yesterday I got:

• 9 funnies
• 5 informative
• 4 dislikes
• 2 likes

Today opened about 30 USD down from when this was posted. I'm not saying that TSLA is necessarily going down from here. I've had pretty much all my money in Tesla since 2012, and I'm still super bull. But I do find it strange that it is a bit controversial to recommend selling a small portion of the portfolio after the stock has risen about 200% in half a year.

In fact it tripled from the $179 low.

I think it's really sensible to keep a buffer of cash, to buy the dip directly or via cash covered puts, or to leverage up some more via calls if there's an opportunity.

Btw., protective puts are often cheaper and allow a higher upside than selling part of the stake.

 

[wipster]

Lol, does AJ *sugar* in the woods?

Spoiler: Hint

Nope, he's a 'party' pooper
View attachment 500892

Cheers!

Well Lodger, "sugar" happens... and probably will continue to until 2 weeks from now when it hits the fan!

 

[Drax7]

Many institutional investors don't have the luxury of angel investors rolling the dice - they need to offer stability of income instead of a lottery ticket with a high but nearly not 100% probability.

Had they rolled the dice and invested 100% in TSLA in early 2018, and had a bus hit Elon in the spring of 2018, their fund might have been wiped out.

This is one area where private investors are at a massive advantage.

The Ron Baron fund initiates a 1 to 2 % of capital position and keeps it as far as I know.
An initial position size constraint makes sense, not so much limiting the
Growth thereafter. That is my point. Buffett practically never sells.

 

[EV forever]

Normally that is the correct advice, but not necessarily in this situation. In this case the option is deep in the money and about to expire anyway, so it has essentially no time value.

If he sells the option, he incurs tax (it's a LEAP but I think he said it was bought a few months ago). Then he buys stock with a cost basis of about $500.

If he bought the options with a strike of $350 back when the stock was about 350, I'm guessing it cost maybe $40, so by exercising he avoids paying tax on the option and has a cost basis of $390.

Thanks!
Still learning. This was the one of the two exceptions you had stated.
Also, I forgot to account for short term gain taxes. In my case it doesn't matter as I only play with options in my IRA account. But taxes do matter to others in a regular brokerage account.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I have come to the conclusion that the stock ticker is moved mainly by anal-cyst’s ratings, both up & down but mainly up in the last month or so

 

[jerry33]

Those things are not comparable at all. A $500 generator has to be manually started, run outside (so it doesn't kill you), allowed to annoy your neighbors, needs oil and fuel, feed an extension cord through an open door/window, force you to decide which appliance you want to run (possibly making you move your fridge). I have one of these for my reef aquarium as a backup. It was $500 and puts out 1600 watts so you can run your fridge and a couple of smaller things.

Meanwhile a power wall is instant on, zero noise, zero smell, zero maintenance, and allows you to arbitrage peak vs non-peak electricity pricing 365 days a year unlike the generator that sits in your garage. The real comparison is a whole house generator to a solar/powerwall system. A whole house generator of equivalent size to 2 powerwalls runs in the 6k range (plus install), and is worthless for 99.9% of the tie you own it. I can't wait until I have a cybertruck that I can use instead. As soon as I'm ready to replace my roof I'll likely be doing a small solar/battery system.

Yes, a solar/battery system is far more expensive but also provides far more utility and has the capability of paying for itself.

And if you get a whole house generator, it's around $30K plus installation.

 

[SpudLime]

And if you get a whole house generator, it's around $30K plus installation.

what happened to blue text for OT? I rather liked that idea.

 

[jerry33]

what happened to blue text for OT? I rather liked that idea.

I did too, but the MODs didn't.

 

[SpudLime]

I did too, but the MODs didn't.

Bummer.

 

[Nocturnal]

I have come to the conclusion that the stock ticker is moved mainly by anal-cyst’s ratings, both up & down but mainly up in the last month or so

Ratings are an accelerant. Those guys follow the trend that's already happening and then pile on, both to pretend they know what's happening, but also knowing that their rating is likely to move the stock in that direction, which validates their rating. It's really an odd system we have in place that basically drives everything around us.

 

[Silentk]

~~~MODERATOR NOTICE:

To further clarify, Moderators are "asking"..........all posts to be only in black, with the obvious exception of links, etc.
~~~~VETINARI~~~~

I defer of course to the Primus Inter Pares, but bearing in mind the many who struggle to sift through the torrent of posts for investment advice, would humbly suggest again that a two colour system of whatever hue and shade for on / off topic could be an easy solution for a common problem. If that is deemed a poor solution, I rest my case, and look forward to a vibrant, albeit colourless forum going forward .

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the thing here is that they also believe in those "dogs". Last year Tesla could have easily been considered to be one of those, possibly even the worst of them.

You're correct that they won't get rich off this investment strategy, but that's not really the point of such a fund. They're trying to spread out risk so that if Elon gets hit by a meteor tomorrow, their fund won't collapse. They limit the upside, sure, but they also limit the downside.

Lol, I had those exact same thought myself, and they are nonsense! They only work if you are valuing a company via its share price. Don't do that! Value Tesla by its growth rate, its gross margin, its total addressable market. Tels is moving into a $100T+ global market and it OWNS it, with insurmountable technology and unmatched execution.

Now I don't own any ARK funds, but do any of the (for example) biotech holdings have proprietary, proven assets that will CHANGE THE WORLD? Cure cancer? Turn cancer into bio-fuel? Feed the multitudes?

No I didn't think so. But ARK is selling TSLA to buy more of them. Makes zero sense for a fund that claims to have a 5 year investment horizon, and they are actually frickin' swing trading.

I attribute this to inexperience on the part of their CEO. She's not a Wall St. veteran, and doesn't appear to have any background in large wealth management (think GPF or PIF type money). At the rate they're going, they're not going to have that wealth any time soon, either.

Want to waste some time this afternoon? Sum up all the sales ARK did on Tesla in Q3/4 and price those gains against TSLA at today's bear-bottom. Then price those sales against ARK's bull/bear cases.

They're talking the talk, but not walkin' the walk. Cathie should go talk to Ron Baron. He's rich for a reason.

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

So Adam Jonas' says his price target of $360 is based on the auto business worth $332 and the autonomy business worth $28.

He values:

Energy business: $0
Solar business: $0
Tesla brand: $0
In-vehicle entertainment and services: $0
Licensing battery technology: $0
Licensing autonomous technology: $0
Tesla Insurance: $0
New future businesses: $0

 

[Unpilot]

How could somebody rate this quote as "helpful".

I read through the post multiple times trying to find the link to 30 pages worth of flat Earth sites but never found one.

Did you throw a dead chicken over your LEFT shoulder first?

 

[Drax7]

Lol, I had those exact same thought myself, and they are nonsense! They only work if you are valuing a company via its share price. Don't do that! Value Tesla by its growth rate, its gross margin, its total addressable market. Tels is moving into a $100T+ global market and it OWNS it, with insurmountable technology and unmatched execution.

Now I don't own any ARK funds, but do any of the (for example) biotech holdings have proprietary, proven assets that will CHANGE THE WORLD? Cure cancer? Turn cancer into bio-fuel? Feed the multitudes?

No I didn't think so. But ARK is selling TSLA to buy more of them. Makes zero sense for a fund that claims to have a 5 year investment horizon, and they are actually frickin' swing trading.

I attribute this to inexperience on the part of their CEO. She's not a Wall St. veteran, and doesn't appear to have any background in large wealth management (think GPF or PIF type money). At the rate they're going, they're not going to have that wealth any time soon, either.

Want to waste some time this afternoon? Sum up all the sales ARK did on Tesla in Q3/4 and price those gains against TSLA at today's bear-bottom. Then price those sales against ARK's bull/bear cases.

They're talking the talk, but not walkin' the walk. Cathie should go talk to Ron Baron. He's rich for a reason.

Cheers!

I’ve never made a penny in biotechs, it must be me.
Even if they have a cure for cancer, I’ll manage to lose .

 

[NicoV]

33 cents/kWh in Germany: Supercharger | Tesla Deutschland

Germany is the most expensive country for supercharging in Europe. France is the cheapest at 24 cents.