Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

Not mine, I got it off another Tesla forum site. Someone (whom I don't know) posted it, hence my quotes.

In that case it seems to me, the polite thing to do is to give a link. Polite to the originator, and polite to us readers.
That would be my own take. No need to quote.

 

[SO16]

Yep. And yes I know we have a ton of I told you so’s coming our way. A couple things changed our mind on getting the leaf although it would have been a nice fit for us.

1. Our Nissan sales guy (good guy, keen on electric and knows his stuff) informed us that our leaf would not be available in time for our schedule. Long story short it would probably be closer to mid summer before it got here. Every Eplus Leaf is spoken for essentially till years end. We probably could have started a nation wide search but there were some extenuating circumstances like incentives etc. We were looking it though.

2. This is essentially going to be my wife’s daily driver and our road trip car. She liked the leaf and the model 3 and didn’t have the exit/entry issues I have with the model 3. Then the Nissan CEO came out a couple weeks ago and implied that Nissan would be leaning towards hybrids in the future as women were just too stupid and feeble to operate the charge stations. My wife is a retired career soldier technician (who is kinda handy in.a bar fight). How do you think that went.

We expect to order the model 3 as soon as we are back in the country in beginning of March.

Bring on the “I told you so’s”. I can take it.

I honestly don’t care how you got there. I’m just glad you arrived.

 

[adiggs]

Aren't you forgotting something? We know know FOR CERTAIN that within a few quarters of becoming profitable, Tesla has $1.81B in deferred tax allowances the bulk of which will go straight to bottom line GAAP profits, likely in 2020. This will be a Super Draco level of boost straight taking TSLA directly onto the S&P 500. Amazon and Twitter case studies prove it (h/t @FrankSG)

YOU READ THIS FORUM, right? So does Wall St. and the Media. SP is forward looking. Or do you think Pierre Ferragu lifted TSLA +7.2% today with a note? ITS THE DROOLING BILLIONS, MANG!

Cheers!

That $1.8B in deferred tax allowances sounds like $10 EPS to me. If that takes 12 months to be captured, and Tesla receives a 100 PE, then that's a $1200 share price right there (over and above the actual earnings and whatever multiple they're earning).


EDIT: After reading here, the $1.8B in deferred tax allowances looks like a $1.8B reduction in earnings that taxes needs to be paid on. So if the company is paying taxes at 21% (US Corporate tax rate), then that'll be more like $360M in improved earnings, or $2 EPS.

EDIT2: I am not an accountant, and have a more than health hobby interest in accounting. So I'm probably wrong, both in the original thought AND in the followup edit. Don't listen to me - do your own research (or listen to @The Accountant).


Of course, then the sugar high wears off, and Tesla needs to start paying taxes like any other ridiculously profitable company (and any other barely profitable company), and the actual EPS comes back down to Earth.

 

[ggr]

And a new AH ATH, AHA! 551.51

Just a couple of minutes after I bought more at $549.65. Yay.
edit: $553.50... I mean $554, while I was typing.

 

[rsm287]

These new shorts of course will be encouraged to initiate their position by those who are already short the stock.

Is that some kind of ponzi scheme they've got going

 

[Pezpunk]

$554 after hours ahahahahahhaha

 

[Ggusev]

against interpreting the bullish sentiment on this board as broader bullish sentiment for TSLA

well, TMS bullish sentiment is a very special thing. I totally love this forum. I left teslamotors subreddit after it got infested by shorty trolls, and I said this earlier - I've read all 6000+ pages here!

In fact, I'd say Artful Dodge'r and Fact Checking posts made me change my mind, so instead of panic quit at 220, I got HELOC and doubled my position at 180-190 which is by far the luckiest bet I've ever made.

 

[DaveT]

Does anybody know how many Model Ys Tesla is planning on making at Fremont before running out of space?

To clarify, I'm not talking about storing Model Ys. But I'm talking about what's the planned annual capacity of Model Y production at Fremont, and is it being rolled out in stages?

 

[dw4ngg]

edit: +$7

 

[Cherry Wine]

Opened some put credit spreads. This price action is ridiculous.

Closed these today for a 90% gain and opened some new spreads at $550 strikes expiring Friday. Hoping to use the profits from these credit spreads to build up a cash position to deploy on a pullback or, if that never happens, buy our Model X outright later this year.

We should see volatility pick up over the next few weeks...with TSLA earnings on 1/29 things will get tricky...the VIX should see sharp spike soon...should be just a temporary set back, but I see the markets and TSLA selling off before earnings(try to remember the big picture when this happens)...but will be a great spot to pick up shares before the next wave of the ramp up...we should see the next step wise climb up on TSLA after earnings...until earnings, many on this board will panic and flip out a bit.......jmho.

This post has not aged well thus far. *knocks on wood*

 

[SageBrush]

$554 after hours ahahahahahhaha

I follow this llink for an idea about volume. The last $5 of the AH jump up to $553 is on a very low volume so far.

 

[PeterJA]

Previously, I always used the term [OEM] in the strict sense but have recently given in because it's commonly used in a much more general sense (for lack of a better short word).

How about LAME -- Legacy Automotive Manufacturing Establishment -- as in "Many LAMEs will be bankrupted by Tesla."

 

[azaz]

OT but Musk's take on direct democracy is asinine

 

[Fact Checking]

I follow this llink for an idea about volume. The AH jump is on a very low volume so far.

Actually, 372k shares traded in after-hours trading so far, that's much higher than normal. Probably margin call driven - we always see these AH volume spikes after new all-time highs.

There was also barely any pullback today, which possibly trapped a few opportunistic shorts as well.

 

[SageBrush]

Actually, 372k shares traded in after-hours trading so far, that's much higher than normal. Probably margin call driven - we always see these AH volume spikes after new all-time highs.

There was also barely any pullback today, which possibly trapped a few opportunistic shorts as well.

Yes, I added more information to my post.

 

[Chickenlittle]

But why??

Usually computer adjusting SP bid by adjusting volume like a short with a large NUMBER OF SHARES TO PURCHASE TO RETURN OR A LARGE BUYER TRYING TO AMASS A POSITION


Sorry caps an error

 

[Fact Checking]

I follow this llink for an idea about volume. The last $5 of the AH jump up to $553 is on a very low volume so far.

Sorry, that's not accurate - here's the after-hours volume graph at the bottom:

The volume bar when TSLA broke through $550 was beyond 10k shares - which is not super high but decent by after-hours standards. The follow up buying pressure was 1k-2k shares trades each, still decent.

Not in this graph, but we just touched $555 as well.

 

[lklundin]

That $1.8B in deferred tax allowances sounds like $10 EPS to me. If that takes 12 months to be captured, and Tesla receives a 100 PE, then that's a $1200 share price right there (over and above the actual earnings and whatever multiple they're earning).


EDIT: After reading here, the $1.8B in deferred tax allowances looks like a $1.8B reduction in earnings that taxes needs to be paid on. So if the company is paying taxes at 21% (US Corporate tax rate), then that'll be more like $360M in improved earnings, or $2 EPS.

EDIT2: I am not an accountant, and have a more than health hobby interest in accounting. So I'm probably wrong, both in the original thought AND in the followup edit. Don't listen to me - do your own research (or listen to @The Accountant).


Of course, then the sugar high wears off, and Tesla needs to start paying taxes like any other ridiculously profitable company (and any other barely profitable company), and the actual EPS comes back down to Earth.

As opposed to paying taxes, wouldn't it be better for Tesla to keep reinvesting most of the revenue to sustain their current, rapid growth?

 

[Artful Dodger]

While I agree there might be some contention around the $100B market cap, I'm a bit dubious of the strength of the resistance. A lot of that resistance might just be shorts trying to deny Elon the first big number in his new agreement.

Agreed. Retail shorts sold at most just 41.23% (FINRA data) today. But FINRA reported volume was just 7.4 M shares, leaving about 10 M shares sold in the dark (likely by large, seated Hedge Funds and Market Makers). They capped today at the previous ATH around $547.41 but tomorrow they will face an Upper-BB at open likely in the $561-566 rge. It's gonna explode with more short covering in the Pre-market, as MMs attempt to squeeze more blud from their stonez.

Serves 'em right, in my opinion. Bleed'em dry. Let's roll.

Cheers

 

[Fact Checking]

OT but Musk's take on direct democracy is asinine

Yeah, like his idea to take on the rocket launch and automotive manufacturing industries, pure asinine lunacy.

I agree with most of his direct democracy ideas. Once Mars goes independent he might even get a chance to implement them.

MODERATOR WARNING:

YES, not only is this way off topic and as volatile as a..as a...as a tamkful of long-chain hydrocarbons, but if there are any more posts on this as I'm wading through the afternoon's missives they're going buh-bye.

You may AND ARE ENCOURAGED to post this in "Political"...but good luck to those who espouse the "asinine" side.