Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

However it took less than a year in China. Not saying it's easy, but if production facilities are the problem, that should have been obvious well over 3 years ago, and if so, why aren't several being built right now? Now raw materials, that's a problem if that's what holding production back... hard to build raw materials...

My impression is there is no problem at all with "known reserves"....

But it takes time and money to build a mine, just like it takes time and money to build a factory...

To build EVs Tesla needs to know where the cells are coming from, to build more cells, Tesla needs to know where the raw materials are coming from.. Hence the comment about getting into mining wasn't a total joke...

When I see predictions of 95% of cars being EVs and Tesla making 20 million vehicles by 2030, them seem to stack up...

But 80% of new cars being Evs by 2025 probably doesn't stack up; 80% of new car buyers preferring to buy an EVs by 2025, does stack up...

So by 2025 ICE car prices will need to drop, just to move the cars, and oil prices will need to drop just to move the oil...
As more EVs come on stream 2025-2030 and we have working Robo-taxis, ICE and oil progressively just can't compete, they are losing money on every sale... Car owners are shopping for cheaper service and negotiating longer warranty periods...

I see this period 2025-2030 as likely to be "peak pain" for the ICE and oil industries, just barely hanging on, with you eventual fate certain, and facing massive staff redundancies, and a sea of red ink is painful.

 

[kbM3]

... Is there anything i missed?

Cheers!

I’m sure you recall, but thought I’d mention the dedicated Tesla robo-taxi.

$38k cost, 1M mile life, an astounding 4.5-5 miles / kWh efficiency.

 

[wipster]

Quick! Patent it! Oh, too late now, the cat's out of the box ...

Damn Schroedinger!

 

[woof]

I think it might be a slight advantage for Tesla having a CEO who can summon the top AI talent in the world to his house for a party.

Elon Musk on Twitter

On the other hand...maybe all that talent in one place is a honey trap...the evil AI is taking out its potential rivals. Who really controls the elonmusk twitter account anyway?

 

[Sparky4life]

If you enjoy being micromanaged, this could be the perfect job for you :

Elon Musk on Twitter

on the other hand, it’s refreshing to have a boss that actually understands what you are working on.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The comment section is entertaining.

This was cute. 170 upvotes:

Grandpa you lived when tesla was starting?

yeah...

And did you bought shares?

No...

Pffft... dork

 

[CalX]

Hilarious, this letter from toiletboy: “
Despite our significantly reduced (in December) Tesla short position, that stock hurt us again this month as it was up another 56% in January, and roughly half of this month’s negative performance was due to a major hit we took on January 2021 TSLA $690 calls that I’d shorted in the $17s back in 2018 when the stock was in the low $300s. Coming into this month they comprised just under 5% of the hedge fund and were priced at $14, and when the stock rocketed in early January I stopped them out at $25 to $35 (they finished the month at $108!), and the bulk of this month’s damage was done. Now our only TSLA short position is straight equity that currently comprises around 5% of the fund.

I continually ask myself what I’ve learned from this disastrous Tesla experience, and how I’d handle it differently in the future“

Also, his fund's short position is now smaller than my long position.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I continually ask myself what I’ve learned from this disastrous Tesla experience, and how I’d handle it differently in the future“

Maxwell Smart:
Ah yes! If only he'd used his fund for niceness instead of evil!

 

[Beltsbear]

Hilarious, this letter from toiletboy: “
Despite our significantly reduced (in December) Tesla short position, that stock hurt us again this month as it was up another 56% in January, and roughly half of this month’s negative performance was due to a major hit we took on January 2021 TSLA $690 calls that I’d shorted in the $17s back in 2018 when the stock was in the low $300s. Coming into this month they comprised just under 5% of the hedge fund and were priced at $14, and when the stock rocketed in early January I stopped them out at $25 to $35 (they finished the month at $108!), and the bulk of this month’s damage was done. Now our only TSLA short position is straight equity that currently comprises around 5% of the fund.

I continually ask myself what I’ve learned from this disastrous Tesla experience, and how I’d handle it differently in the future“

Also, his fund's short position is now smaller than my long position.

You can short a call?

 

[MP3Mike]

You can short a call?

Wouldn't that just be selling the call. (vs. buying the call.)

So he sold them for $17, and then bought them back for $25-35. (At least that is how I read it.)

 

[ggr]

Wouldn't that just be selling the call. (vs. buying the call.)

So he sold them for $17, and then bought them back for $25-35. (At least that is how I read it.)

Yes, it's just selling the call. It can be "covered", that is, you actually have the stock to deliver if it is exercised (not the case for toilet boy), or you have to have enough margin cash available to be able to buy the stock, but as the stock price rises you need more and more money, which is what happened to him.

 

[Thekiwi]

You can short a call?

by selling a call yes you are effectively short it.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think it might be a slight advantage for Tesla having a CEO who can summon the top AI talent in the world to his house for a party.

Elon Musk on Twitter

I’m gonna say it. I think the FSD project hit one of those roadblocks Neroden warned about (endlessly).

This sudden recruitment drive does not gel with “clear path to self driving” as discussed on Autonomy day. Further evidence of a delay was in the third row podcast part one where they talk about a rewrite to hand more of the primary decision making to the neural net.

It’s reassuring that ARKs targets are pretty good without FSD. I also like the talk of launching a human driven Tesla network without waiting for robo-taxis.

 

[qphan79]

Yes, and the questions keep straining credibility more and more.

I suspect the analyst that asked about Starlink on Tesla's was trying to get Musk to say it didn't make sense to put Starlink on Tesla's but that Musk didn't want to give him the pleasure so he said something to the effect of "Well, I suppose it would work if someone wanted to do that but we don't have any immediate plans to do so".

In hindsight, I would have liked him to say "Due to my position at SpaceX, I think it would be best if I didn't comment on any plans we may or may not have to incorporate Starlink into Teslas".

Did anyone else crack up after hearing this ridiculous question from Adam Jonas which immediately came after Elon’s response about retail investors being more informed than the financial analysts covering Tesla? The timing was just unbelievable!

 

[MC3OZ]

I’m gonna say it. I think the FSD project hit one of those roadblocks Neroden warned about (endlessly).

This sudden recruitment drive does not gel with “clear path to self driving” as discussed on Autonomy day. Further evidence of a delay was in the third row podcast part one where they talk about a rewrite to hand more of the primary decision making to the neural net.

It’s reassuring that ARKs targets are pretty good without FSD. I also like the talk of launching a human driven Tesla network without waiting for robo-taxis.

One hunch is they have a particular problem they want to crack, another is they just want to accelerate testing/development cycles, and there is a lot of work to do.

As far as I know Tesla is the only company using a mainly Software 2.0 approach to FSD and that is a recent change... so probably lots to do...

Or the party could be some sort of early release promotional event....

What we do know is Tesla is stepping up their efforts, and if they are late in delivering, it will not be caused lack of effort or commitment.

 

[Curt Renz]

Stock index futures have opened up about 0.3%.

 

[T1989]

Just in: The Netherlands is introducing a €4000 subsidy for new electric cars, starting from 1 july. This subsidy is for cars up to the selling price of €45.000. Since the cheapest Model 3 (SR+) starts from 48.980, I hope Tesla will officially introduce the SR here. Or give us an option to buy a “software locked” SR+ for €44.980 and unlock it for €4000.

This should give a small boost to Model 3 sales in the Netherlands in Q3 and Q4.

Source: Duizenden euro's subsidie moet verkoop elektrische auto zetje geven

As soon as the Brandenburg factory starts pumping out Model 3’s, they should be about 5K cheaper here due to the importduties alone.

 

[ZsoZso]

Yes, it's just selling the call. It can be "covered", that is, you actually have the stock to deliver if it is exercised (not the case for toilet boy), or you have to have enough margin cash available to be able to buy the stock, but as the stock price rises you need more and more money, which is what happened to him.

So, he was writing naked Call options ?
Sounds like he is way dumber than the average bear...

Spoiler

 

[Singer3000]

I’m gonna say it. I think the FSD project hit one of those roadblocks Neroden warned about (endlessly).

This sudden recruitment drive does not gel with “clear path to self driving” as discussed on Autonomy day. Further evidence of a delay was in the third row podcast part one where they talk about a rewrite to hand more of the primary decision making to the neural net.

It’s reassuring that ARKs targets are pretty good without FSD. I also like the talk of launching a human driven Tesla network without waiting for robo-taxis.

The 2020 deadline was always just Elon motivational time.

He Who Shall Not Be Named (HWSNBN) had a bigger issue, which to paraphrase was that he knew more about the problem and how to solve it than anyone at Tesla, who were clueless and didn’t even know the problem yet alone the solution. Because he drove past a construction site that morning or something, which they don’t have in California.

If you ask me, the noises coming out of Elon in the last week are quite positive. Because it sounds to me like the image recognition and perception sides of it are close to being cracked. Or at least the foundations are now there and it’s just data and time. It’s the third piece on planning which they’re now turning to with serious intent.

I seem to remember HWSNBN had a real bug that Tesla hadn’t hired any expert drivers and as a result he “knew” that Tesla weren’t serious. These latest adverts are in line with Autonomy Day and make that criticism irrelevant, by wrapping the path and action planning into the NN.

By the way his most recent post says Tesla’s customer service is “law breaking” but their “lack of competition should get them about 1 year of sales”. But their “poor customer service means they’ll soon have the lowest margins in the industry”. You have to wonder how much he ever understood about the business and the wider landscape when he says things like this.

All this said, you only need to cruise some of the international forums to see that FSD is an expensive bauble where Tesla hasn’t accrued the miles.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Just in: The Netherlands is introducing a €4000 subsidy for new electric cars, starting from 1 july. This subsidy is for cars up to the selling price of €45.000. Since the cheapest Model 3 (SR+) starts from 48.980, I hope Tesla will officially introduce the SR here. Or give us an option to buy a “software locked” SR+ for €44.980 and unlock it for €4000.

This should give a small boost to Model 3 sales in the Netherlands in Q3 and Q4.

Source: Duizenden euro's subsidie moet verkoop elektrische auto zetje geven

As soon as the Brandenburg factory starts pumping out Model 3’s, they should be about 5K cheaper here due to the importduties alone.

It’s curious that many countries set these limits just below the Model 3 SR+ price.....