Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Interesting little point to keep in mind. Exactly one calendar month ago we were sitting fat and happy at $444.53. we have since risen to over $945. Today, to this point, we have given back about $200 of that. WE ARE STILL UP OVER $300 IN ONE MONTH! I, for one, am ok with that. Just breathe folks. We all know the stories just down the road are all positive. I just wish I had more resources to plow into this dip.

Dan

 

[LoveTSLA]

anyone for a green close today?

No one knows but as I keep saying here many times. Be patient. 1500 could be coming too soon for us to deal with

 

[Artful Dodger]

then tripled my stake by buying at 405 - (yes I swallowed the $420 funding secured

Oh, how did you do that? The SP never went over $387.46 on Aug 7, 2018 the day of the tweet:

Aug 7 was the high point of the SP for the episode. On the following day, Aug 8, 2018, the highest share price was $382.64 and it slumped to $301.66 by end of the month.

Maybe check your records?

 

[madodel]

Thanks for sharing. Interesting data! Is this data/source validated?

Interesting to see on the Robintrack that there are many more less interesting stocks with much more users holding shares.

Those "less interesting stocks" are many dollar stocks. Even MSFT, FB and AAPL are in the low $2-300 range. I've spoken with a young guy who uses Robinhood and his take is the SP is just too high for what he can afford. But they told me if it were to split they'd love to own TSLA. He's buying BYND because he can afford it and he thinks it will grow because people are eating less meat to save the planet.

 

[KarenRei]

With my luck bad luck, I even shorted a few shares for the greater good. Kind of worked, I lost $16

I actually have a good reason to short TSLA (haven't done it myself, mind you): to buy SpaceX

There's several funds that have SpaceX in them, but only as a small fraction. You could effectively buy a pure SpaceX play by buying the funds and shorting all of the non-SpaceX companies in ratios relative to their fraction of the fund you've bought (assuming they're all public). Said funds often have Tesla in them as well. Hence, shorting Tesla to buy SpaceX

I wouldn't recommend this strategy, however! In addition to it being high maintenance, you'd have to maintain total short positions much larger than your SpaceX position, which - even though they're in effect zero leverage - your broker would require you to tie up significant amounts of cash to do so.

 

[madodel]

So who is selling based on Ralph Nader attacking Tesla and Musk? He is on CNBC calling for an SEC investigation for insider trading. I wonder how much he is short TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The uptick rule screws up their manipulations for Thursday and Friday, but they can still cap it...

The "uptick rule" is in effect for the remainder of the day, and the following trading day (that's Thursday). So come Friday, no uptick rule protection.

'The rule's "duration of price test restriction" applies the rule for the remainder of the trading day and the following day.'​

 

[Fact Checking]

I bought back the upper end of one call-spread for 44% of what I sold it for yesterday... we so nearly hit my price for buying back a second one But at least I got the one. I've got a sell order for a higher strike at the same price I re-bought it for today, in case we get a double dip.

So you basically took profits on the short call and converted the spread into a long call leveraged position?

I think MMs are perfectly fine with the short circuit "freezing in" price action to a certain degree for the next 3(?) days - the resulting IV crush is in their favor.

The problem with closing the upper leg of the bullish spread is that there's still quite a bit of excess IV in 02/21 options, and the IV crush will continue with the lower leg.

A better strategy might be to close both legs and buy back on any further dips. Of course then you might miss out on a strong bounce.

 

[ZsoZso]

Is it possible, that the last two days were a VW style short squeeze and now we settle back to a new post-short base-price (which should be about 20% higher than the pre-squeeze price)?

I know Ihor was insisting that there was no major short covering, but he has been wrong before...

 

[bhtooefr]

...ah, yes, you're right. And with max pain at 750, stopping the bull run needed to happen on Wednesday so that the uptick rule would be lifted Friday for further manipulation.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So who is selling based on Ralph Nader attacking Tesla and Musk? He is on CNBC calling for an SEC investigation for insider trading. I wonder how much he is short TSLA.

What? Is there any evidence Elon even sold anything? Maybe the FBI can investigate Nader for terrorism.

 

[Fact Checking]

I wouldn't recommend this strategy, however! In addition to it being high maintenance, you'd have to maintain total short positions much larger than your SpaceX position, which - even though they're in effect zero leverage - your broker would require you to tie up significant amounts of cash to do so.

Also, SpaceX is valued once a year I think - which makes this a very long term investment with significant tail risks: funds have no obligation to tell you their weighting in advance, so you'll lag behind.

 

[Green Pete]

Is it possible, that the last two days were a VW style short squeeze and now we settle back to a new post-short base-price (which should be about 20% higher than the pre-squeeze price)?

I know Ihor was insisting that there was no major short covering, but he has been wrong before...

I could be wrong but I don't think he's ever been wrong so much as had a wider margin of error than people thought was acceptable but otherwise his numbers were accurate as to the general trend.

 

[theschnell]

So who is selling based on Ralph Nader attacking Tesla and Musk? He is on CNBC calling for an SEC investigation for insider trading. I wonder how much he is short TSLA.

Who is he accusing of doing the insider trading? Tesla should sue him for defamation if he has no evidence.

 

[Remus]

Why so many people upset about the corrections and weak long selling?

Weak longs will use those profit to buy Tesla products, so as the shorts really use their money to help Tesla.

 

[LYTRIDR]

Positive catalysts coming up are the battery day, and Model Y deliveries.

What else am I missing about short term catalysts?

Depending on if you consider 6 months or so short term, I'd add in the first Semi production candidate in the hands of customers. Many folks in the trucking industry are rightfully skeptical about things like weight, real-world range, charging downtime and infrastructure, etc. If it turns out to be as good as we the bulls believe, I think it could shift the stock.

Feature complete FSD is on the horizon too.

Solar roof ramping is another dark horse.

 

[Fobble]

So who is selling based on Ralph Nader attacking Tesla and Musk? He is on CNBC calling for an SEC investigation for insider trading. I wonder how much he is short TSLA.

Nader rumbling around and could not even give the right/concrete reasons on Tesla attack, and ending up advice Musk to slow down his words to avoid issues with FCC ... All over the place. Even CNBC folks could not really grasp what he tried to say

 

[Nocturnal]

TBH, I'm not convinced.

There was plenty of short sale activity reported yesterday, and the manipulations looked like classic short manipulations. I think they deflated a bull run (at least temporarily!), rather than getting forced out.

We all know they won't give up. Odds are we will get another squeeze at some point no matter what shakes out this week.

 

[theschnell]

sorry if already posted.

Big Short’s Eisman Ends Bet Against Tesla, Calling It Cult-Like

Eisman covers. Appears to have covered in the recent past. Not to be confused with Einhorn.

 

[KarenRei]

So you basically took profits on the short call and converted the spread into a long call leveraged position?

I think MMs are perfectly fine with the short circuit "freezing in" price action to a certain degree for the next 3(?) days - the resulting IV crush is in their favor.

The problem with closing the upper leg of the bullish spread is that there's still quite a bit of excess IV in 02/21 options, and the IV crush will continue with the lower leg.

A better strategy might be to close both legs and buy back on any further dips. Of course then you might miss out on a strong bounce.

My timescale isn't days - it's months. These are Mar '21 calls. If Tesla freezes in place for months at a time, I've been transported into a parallel universe. There will be new IV surges as well even if this one dies off.

Closing both legs and planning to buy back on a further dip is actually an inverse bet. The goal is deleverage on the way up and releverage on the way down. What you propose is to deleverage on the way down.