Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cohiba]

Model Y sightings almost everywhere in the US now, waiting for first deliveries event.

And waiting for the first teardown.

 

[adiggs]

You're forgetting the insurance product. That's how BRK made so much money.

While being a true statement, the insurance scales that BRK and Tesla are operating at today makes Tesla's insurance activity immaterial for today and for awhile to come (we'll see it coming because first, Tesla will achieve something like Geico scale of car insurance activity, which will be material and trivial next to BRK's insurance activity).


My best guess is that Tesla's insurance activity will always be immaterial to Tesla. So far, my guess is that what we'll see on Tesla's quarter statements will amount to a finder's fee from some other insurance company, with Tesla having people actively involved in the design and redesign of the evolving insurance product. Which means it'll be the insurance company with the float they get to invest, not Tesla.

And of course, real answer is I don't know anything more than anybody else - I haven't seen Tesla talking about their insurance product in any depth or meaning. Maybe because today it's still more of a POC product with immaterial impact on the quarterly financial statement.

 

[VQTRVA]

Tasha making a case for Autonomous Driving tech owners to make ride hailing market bigger than even the auto market itself:

Tasha Keeney on Twitter

 

[JustMe]

Today’s rant at an irascible curmudgeon on another forum

CJ - as I have shown a multitude of times, people love Teslas.
They are a superior product, and surveys of thousands of owners suggest very strong brand loyalty. That is earned by owner experience, not by glossies and slick ads. And Tesla is dominating EV sales despite no advertising and a nonstop negative portrayal by the media and slanderous propaganda. How did they succeed in the face of this disinformation campaign? Word of mouth, personal experience, rave reviews, and glowing recommendations by friends and family. In other words, organic sales growth. By its nature, that is exponential. Yes you can find Tesla haters and dissatisfied customers, but that is far from typical.

WAKE UP. Tesla is way, way ahead of the competition. Nobody has even matched the specs of the 2012 Tesla Model S. The “Tesla killer” Porsche Taycan has barely 200 miles of range for $100,000 more than the 300 mile Tesla Model 3. VW iD3 is a disaster delayed by a year due to a cluster fudge of the auto software that will have to be updated by hand to thousands of cars sitting for months in parking lots. Rivian and Nikola are promising lesser products for tens of thousands of dollars more than Tesla’s models. Both companies have produced scarcely more than brochures and ads year after year as Tesla sold a million cars. GM is at least ten years behind in battery development as Tesla zooms ahead in range, cost, and powertrain efficiency. Tesla is also way ahead on their charging network, now over 1,800 locations worldwide. In Europe - Ford, VW, Daimler, and BMW created a joint charging network - Ionity. But they they are charging three times as much per KWh as Tesla’s superchargers!

As Tesla is expanding with new factories, higher production, improving margins, and new models, other OEMs are reporting cratering revenue and dropping sales and laying off tens of thousands of people. They are struggling to develop EVs that they will have to sell at a loss to compete with Tesla and those EV sales will erode their profitable ICE sales. They are all in deep trouble. VW has been the most promising with H Deiss singing praises of Tesla and showing that he understands the challenge and announcing a significant investment in BEVs. But rumors are that he will be forced out. Not good...

Tesla is as much of a fad product as the iPhone. You may not like it. You may not understand it. But I suggest you get used to it because they’ll be everywhere before you know it.

 

[dl003]

On the flipside, at least we are not THIS boring today.
I knew I should have diversified a bit

 

[SageBrush]

In Europe - Ford, VW, Daimler, and BMW created a joint charging network - Ionity. But they they are charging three times as much per KWh as Tesla’s superchargers!

Uggh.
Please do not fight FUD with FUD. The high per kWh Ionity fee can be that high ... for outsiders like Tesla owners. Car owners from the manufacturers that are members of the network pay ~ 30 Euro cents a kWh

 

[CorneliusXX]

Additionally, articles from the mainstream media can be used to bolster our case that we are more of a religion than a business.

These sacred texts shall be known as ad hymninems.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tasha making a case for Autonomous Driving tech owners to make ride hailing market bigger than even the auto market itself:

Tasha Keeney on Twitter

Americans spend about $9k a year on average for cars, gas, repairs and insurance. Mean income per capita is just over $50k.

I often hear "Americans will never give up their cars! I want my own car, I'll never share!". People may think that, but when you have a nation where the median family has $5k or less in retirement savings (mean is $90k), median total savings of $11k, (mean $175k) it's hard to imagine that a great many would not embrace far cheaper autonomous ride sharing.

And of course that's an American centric viewpoint. I believe most of the rest of the world will be far more amenable to sharing.

Special bonus on that tweet. That Luis Cruthers teslaq guy is going on about the stolen material conspiracy at Freemont. Right. Elon is worth billions and has spent his time facilitating the theft of 37 million in copper wiring. F-ing morons.

 

[tinm]

And it was a damn hard decision to make at the time, not going with dealers. With the Roadster, Tesla was selling hundreds of cars a year. It would have been far cheaper to partner with a dealership franchise for them to service and support their cars. Building out a service network was nuts.

Rivian is initially planning on selling almost 10x the volume that Tesla initially had, and they've raised way more money than Tesla did, and even they are going to partner with dealers for service and support.

Elon never makes the easy decision, he makes the correct one.

It wasn’t just Elon. The founding CEO, Martin Eberhard, was actively researching franchise laws and dealership business models and they were decided on the sell/service direct model while he was still CEO.

Elon Musk has a healthy reality distortion field but an even more robust history distortion field. Resist falling under that spell.

 

[dw4ngg]

Going from options to just holding stock and LEAPs takes some psychological adjustment - that's what I've learned today.

The extreme volatility and amplified gains the last couple months have spoiled us......

I have to relearn to just hold again without trying to using ST options to play swings. Patience is a virtue, they say.

Also, I think it's time to treat myself to a gift. Is it blasphemy to use TSLA gains to buy my dream ICE weekend car (a 911 4S - I love driving manual)?… I will still be using a Model 3 as my daily

 

[SageBrush]

Mean income per capita is just over $50k.

Reference ?

My somewhat vague memory is ~ $65k household as the median. Mean numbers are heavily skewed by the top 0.1%

Addendum: Google Search

 

[SageBrush]

. Is it blasphemy to use TSLA gains to buy my dream ICE weekend car (a 911)…

Expect buyers remorse. Get a Roadster 2.0

 

[Nocturnal]

Reference ?

My somewhat vague memory is ~ $65k household as the median. Mean numbers are heavily skewed by the top 0.1%

Americans' Incomes Have Been Falling Since the 1990s

I just grabbed a random source as the exact number doesn't matter for the argument. Those were 2018 numbers. 65k is the household mean most likely.

Going from options to just holding stock and LEAPs takes some psychological adjustment - that's what I've learned today.

The extreme volatility and amplified gains the last couple months have spoiled us......

I have to relearn to just hold again without trying to using ST options to play swings. Patience is a virtue, they say.

Also, I think it's time to treat myself to a gift. Is it blasphemy to use TSLA gains to buy my dream ICE weekend car (a 911 4S - I love driving manual)?… I will still be using a Model 3 as my daily

For sure. Now I see a 10% increase in SP and my needle doesn't seem to move. Boring! Ha. ​

 

[hobbes]

Uggh.
Please do not fight FUD with FUD. The high per kWh Ionity fee can be that high ... for outsiders like Tesla owners. Car owners from the manufacturers that are members of the network pay ~ 30 Euro cents a kWh

Not even all outsiders have to pay 79cent/kWh, you can still get contracts that give you roaming at Ionity for about as cheap as Tesla superchargers. Also, Ionity often offers faster charge rates. Ionity ändert Preismodell – auf 79 Cent pro kWh - electrive.net

 

[GaryW]

@ReflexFunds thanks for the high level summary I’m in agreement on almost all points. But in your old post under ICE OEM handicaps you say “EVs only share 10%-20% of components and production process with ICEs”. That’s too low for a complete car. But it is challenging to communicate because Tesla is innovating in these areas despite the fact they are common elements to ice cars.

Body frame, body panels, paint, glass, interior, wiring, suspension, tires & wheels, friction brakes, steering wheel, infotainment system, autonomy & safety systems all common to cars no matter the power plant. EV changes drivetrain, drivetrain control system, and hvac. Adds regen brakes. Deletes alternator and potentially low voltage electrical system. So majority of components and production processes are shared though the optimization for components does shift to lightweight / aerodynamic ones due to current battery tech for energy density and cost.

I think most car manufacturers would disagree, if you ask the question right. They will tell you the hundreds to thousands of parts in the engine complex and the transmission are the important bits of a car. That’s why they outsource almost all of the rest.

 

[CanadaEV]

I haven't checked back too far, but I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion today about Electrek's article on Tesla's pilot cell manufacturing plans for Fremont and GF4: Tesla is building a pilot battery cell manufacturing line in Fremont - getting into the cell business - Electrek

Most here are anticipating the April Investor Battery day, now apparently re-named the April Company Talk.

I think this could well be the most compelling event of the year for Tesla, and, besides the 'machine-that-builds-the-machine' ramp up currently underway in GF3 and GF4, the most serious inflection point for the entire auto industry as well as the energy storage industry.

 

[Kenypowa]

Uggh.
Please do not fight FUD with FUD. The high per kWh Ionity fee can be that high ... for outsiders like Tesla owners. Car owners from the manufacturers that are members of the network pay ~ 30 Euro cents a kWh

Right, but there is an 18 euro subscription fee every month and minimum contract term is 12 months. You are already paying 215 euro just for the privileged to be able to use Ionity chargers at 31 cents/kwh.

Tarife - Audi DE - DCS

 

[Zaxxon]

OT; too many SpaceX fans in this thread not to mention it here...

Spoiler: SpaceX brings on NASA’s former top spaceflight official as it prepares to launch first astronauts

SpaceX brings on NASA's former top spaceflight official as it prepares to launch first astronauts

This is a big f'n deal for SpaceX. I'll let Eric Berger explain the why...

William Gerstenmaier joins SpaceX, and that’s a really big deal

Dedicated thread here.

 

[dw4ngg]

Expect buyers remorse. Get a Roadster 2.0

Hedging any potential buyer's remorse by buying 4-5 yrs used... depreciation will already have taken its toll.. don't expect to lose more than 10-15k over 2 yrs.

 

[Singuy]

How China built a hospital in 10 days. Same company that built Tesla Shanghia Gigafactory. Absolutely incredible.

TLDR: Government owned construction company treats construction like a product. Manufacturing modular pieces of the building offsite and then have workers piece them together at the build site.

First principle thinking was definitely applied to this way of building and Elon would be proud.