Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

It's definitely an odd, but good feeling when the market is more bullish in the near term on Tesla stock than I am. Of course that means I don't know what to do so I guess I'll just hold.

If I could find reasonable health insurance for a reasonable cost I would absolutely leave my job to focus on day trading and TSLA trading.
[if anyone has any decent answers to this puzzle Please PM me.]

There aren't any answers there. I work as an independent under an LLC. I pay $500 a month for and individual crap insurance plan for a healthy 39 year old.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Well, not everyone can afford to quit their job and ignore everything else in order to keep up with this thread

But you stay here long enough & you can afford to quit and ignore everything else...

 

[Davidzhao365]

Is there a tracker for Tesla official estimated delivery timeline as shown below?

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/custom/Tesla Model 3 Performance configurator for U.S..jpg

 

[Tslynk67]

Here. The downtick at day 50 is an anomaly in the data. It should be at 12 ships by day 50 based on available data.

View attachment 510201

Maybe now they don't need to ship so much to China, they can deliver more in the USA, hence less ships?

 

[jerry33]

I would have said the opposite -- because EVs are changing (for the better) so much more rapidly than ICEs, people are more likely to want quicker upgrades! I mean, how many here were considering a new Model 3/Y when the Air Suspension rumor just floated through? What if the battery life or charge speed doubles in the next 3-5 years?

I had my last car for 21 years, and I strongly doubt I'll have my Model 3 anything close to that long. (Guess that's in part, why I'm here!)

That's true in the short term, long term there should be fewer cars needed per population. (And I kept the first new vehicle I purchased for twenty years).

 

[printf42]

OT
Yahoo finance is running a totally unrelated car crash video right on top of a no-news-re-hash article of the 2018 BayArea Model X crash.

Are they trying to fool people into thinking there is a new crash?
At least I was fooled for a minute.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Ordered a Dual Motor at 8:24 EST (<1 min after it went live) RN1127441 __

RN 113236138

Trimotor with FSD.

That's a difference of about 492k reservation numbers, taken from unveiling to 1 Feb 2020.

Almost 500k reservations.

Wasn't Tesla Model 3's reserved to about that when he released? Now, granted, less money up front is a contributing factor undoubtedly, but that's still a healthy number!

 

[S3XY]

This conclusively proves that Fred has an about ~4 days long TMC investor forum comment reading backlog:



Hurry up Fred!

I know the feeling.

 

[sundaymorning]

OT
Yahoo finance is running a totally unrelated car crash video right on top of a no-news-re-hash article of the 2018 BayArea Model X crash.
View attachment 510206
Are they trying to fool people into thinking there is a new crash?
At least I was fooled for a minute.

paid bashing

 

[canoemore]

BIG call buying

At what strikes/experies?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Nice call! I'm beginning to wonder if I should invest in that lev 2 order book data.

A cautionary note -- my understanding of the order book is that it can be very deceptive -- buyers or sellers can show up or disappear at a moment's notice.

 

[Cherry Wine]

So the format looked familiar, and I actually clicked through all the charts on Franco's spreadsheet to make sure it's not there already.

So I went again, and indeed, by clicking on the unassuming "Distribution" tab there's a whole new world of shipping charts!

Haha yep, it was well hidden.

 

[Nocturnal]

OT
Yahoo finance is running a totally unrelated car crash video right on top of a no-news-re-hash article of the 2018 BayArea Model X crash.
View attachment 510206
Are they trying to fool people into thinking there is a new crash?
At least I was fooled for a minute.

Breaking news! lol

Our media is a joke. It will be dead in 10 years.

That's a difference of about 492k reservation numbers, taken from unveiling to 1 Feb 2020.

Almost 500k reservations.

Wasn't Tesla Model 3's reserved to about that when he released? Now, granted, less money up front is a contributing factor undoubtedly, but that's still a healthy number!

My guesstimate is that about 40% will convert to buyers. New buyers will be trickling in the entire time, especially at launch so the total demand number for the first few years probably isn't far off from 500k. With the hype I would not be surprised to see people reselling them at a profit early on. ​

 

[lklundin]

Could we all just start a church of Elonology? Here in the states, all you need for near total religious tax exemption is a few forms and a church. If the talking-snake-book folks did it, why can't we?

Outstanding idea, and a small step given that our detractors already deem us a cult.

 

[Tslynk67]

If I could find reasonable health insurance for a reasonable cost I would absolutely leave my job to focus on day trading and TSLA trading.
[if anyone has any decent answers to this puzzle Please PM me.]

Move to almost any other developed country?

 

[Foghat]

I’m curious, if people are saying Tesla will be a 1T company, what level of revenue to do expect that 1T company to generate? 100bln in revenue by 2030?

At 1T valuation in 2030, do people think Tesla’s growth is slower than it is today? If not will the stock price have baked in that growth in the 1T valuation in 2030?

If 8-10X of revenue is the baked into stock price for growth, is 100bln+ in revenue ten years off or will Tesla achieve this revenue mark much sooner?

For reference Saudi Arabia Oil Company is valued at over $6trillion...

Apple’s annual revenue seems to be topping out at 265bln/year. Is Tesla’s long term revenue top at 265bln/year or is it much higher being that is auto and energy combined?

 

[rsm287]

I’m curious, if people are saying Tesla will be a 1T company, what level of revenue to do expect that 1T company to generate? 100bln in revenue by 2030?

At 1T valuation in 2030, do people think Tesla’s growth is slower than it is today? If not will the stock price have baked in that growth in the 1T valuation in 2030?

If 8-10X of revenue is the baked into stock price for growth, is 100bln+ in revenue ten years off or will Tesla achieve this revenue mark much sooner?

For reference Saudi Arabia Oil Company is valued at over $6trillion...

I don't know about everyone else, but I'm expecting $100B in revenue by end of 2023 and easily over $1T in revenue by 2030 (that's just applying a 50% CAGR and doesn't include FSD). As to when valuation gets to $1T......around 2024/25?

 

[Nocturnal]

Solving the money problem has me thinking about exit plans. What are you guys planning? I'm waiting to see how Robotaxi looks over the next 2 years before I really formalize anything.

Apple’s annual revenue seems to be topping out at 265bln/year. Is Tesla’s long term revenue top at 265bln/year or is it much higher being that is auto and energy combined?

Certainly. Tesla auto should be able to hit that alone. That's about where Toyota is, but Tesla should have far higher margins. Solar and battery have a similar prospects. On top of that add in Robotaxi business which you can say is worth Uber and Lyft combined (once again at higher margins) or more. I'd also argue that the Semi business is worth another big chunk and I'm only separating that because Toyota and VW don't sell semis.

 

[Foghat]

I don't know about everyone else, but I'm expecting $100B in revenue by end of 2023 and easily over $1T in revenue by 2030 (that's just applying a 50% CAGR and doesn't include FSD). As to when valuation gets to $1T......around 2024/25?

I think we have to start looking at what is potential revenue top for Tesla’s market in both auto and energy. If it’s growth goes far beyond that of a 265bln top, then 1T should be achieved well before 265bln in revenues. We must assess 1T valuation on continued growth basis beyond it, much as the same way we do today’s valuation beyond 140bln.

It is a bit of a mental block for valuing it like this because we’ve never seen it. But we also never have seen 1T tech company till last year and now we have multiple. Not to mention the 6T valuation of Saudi Arabia Oil Company. Tesla going to continue trend of creating new normals.

 

[ninpb]

Certainly. Tesla auto should be able to hit that alone. That's about where Toyota is, but Tesla should have far higher margins. Solar and battery have a similar prospects. On top of that add in Robotaxi business which you can say is worth Uber and Lyft combined (once again at higher margins) or more. I'd also argue that the Semi business is worth another big chunk and I'm only separating that because Toyota and VW don't sell semis.

You're forgetting the insurance product. That's how BRK made so much money.