Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

The established would most likely fumble the integration and execution (half ass development of everything else on top) so bad that it will look bad on Tesla (because they will blame Tesla).

Yeah like this....and then say "the Tesla battery is not nearly as efficient as promised"

 

[qphan79]

So Bloomberg is saying that buying TSLA at $767 is too low? That they got a discount? I guess I can agree. Since TSLA is $809 now.

this is probably a dumb question but does the fact that the stock offering sold 2 million more shares at $767 mean that $767 is a new relative floor for now? It shows that there are plenty of buyers at that price who wouldn’t immediately panic and dump for a loss, right?

 

[StealthP3D]

There is a lithium extraction pilot project starting in Sherwood Park, Alberta (at 'Refinery Row', near Edmonton):

MGX Minerals brings rapid lithium extraction to Alberta’s oil patch

Lucrative lithium potential looms in Alberta

Smith: Alberta oil industry may be key to solving lithium shortage

Nice. Except there is a glut of lithium, not a shortage. Prices are near multi-year lows.

 

[Speedr117]

It seemed clear (to me) during the call that a capital raise is something they've been considering, but also that Elon doesn't want to needlessly dilute the company. Mainly because he doesn't want his holding to get diluted -- notice how he always buys into any offering and never misses an opportunity to accumulate shares.

But as circumstances may have changed in terms of investment and / or development acceleration opportunities post-ER, combined with a ballooning market cap, they might have concluded it's time to do it. Hell, as far as we know, it might have been on their minds since then, but they were waiting for the right time to do it.

He is now pretty sure now that the stock is so high that he'll get the 1% of the company bonus since the market cap is comfortably above $100b. Conveint that they dilute the company by a little over 1% with the stock offering, thereby his percentage of his ownership stays about the same.

 

[Chocochip]

The established would most likely fumble the integration and execution (half ass development of everything else on top) so bad that it will look bad on Tesla (because they will blame Tesla).

No. Because at that point it would be sufficient for Tesla to point at the EPA rating of their latest Model 3, Model S, Model X, Cybertruck or whatever vehicle has a skateboard most similar to the one licensed, and ask them to repeat that, but slowly.

Anyway, as I mentioned, I don't see a skateboard licensing deal happening. It would have to be ridiculously advantageous for Tesla from a financial standpoint for them to bother, and at that point it would become too expensive (read: loss-making) for the other OEMs to implement.

Plus, Tesla has soooo many products in the pipeline that can and will absorb all battery cell production for many years in the future... Just, no, it won't happen!

 

[vwman111]

 

[KarenRei]

Texas, Nevada, elsewhere... wherever it is, we've got get news at some point in the next few months as to where Semi is going to be built. I know Tesla builds production lines quickly, but still... "limited production" by the end of this year means a ticking deadline.

 

[azaz]

big IV crush around 11am

 

[X Fan]

SEC is likely just making sure Tesla is dotting their i and crossing their t. It’s a nuisance investigation to make sure Tesla disclosed everything “properly”. There may or may not be any basis for it. The worst that could come out of of it is likely that Tesla disclose more information.

Vent of the day: It’s just ridiculous that the shorts drive this ongoing proctologist exam (and divert Tesla’s Mgt/Legal resources) whereby the rest of the publicly traded marketplace sins is often ignored.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 50 minutes ago: How Tesla Could Use Its $2B In Offering Cash: A Cybertruck Plant, China, Debt Payoff

Excerpt:

Ross Gerber, co-founder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told Benzinga that Tesla is likely thinking ahead to building its Cybertruck manufacturing facility.

 

[jerry33]

I don't understand why Elon is always so irritated when asked about raising capital.

I think he was irritated about "raising capital to pay off loans".

 

[humbaba]

The Plan isn't to build every truck for the US market, it's to force universal change. There are a million and one other more important things Tesla will need to be doing in 2022/23.

Who wants to deal with traditional F150 owners flopping around complaining? Just set the benchmark and let the market fill the void(while struggling to not go bankrupt). Scaling the pickup segment will be a LOT more annoying than sedans or crossovers.

I'm not holding my breath for Ford's EV, nor I think is Musk. Given that no one else even has a plan (outside of, marginally, VW) for meaningful volume of EV production there is no point on waiting for the legacy makers to pivot to EV. Because they won't. Its hard to do and costly besides. They have dropping revenue and a lot of their "value" is tied up in ICE manufacturing that is worthless for EVs. They don't have the will and they don't have the means.

The best way to achieve a fast transition to electric is to push as hard and fast as Tesla can reasonably go. If a legacy maker actually goes through the pain to become an EV manufacturer, great, more power to them. If they don't, well, Tesla already proved the feasibility, its not Tesla's fault if they won't move and talk about making ICEv into 2030.

What might light a fire under them is to take away their cash cows. Of course it might not. Going slow just enables their continued dysfunction. Its (past) time for some tough love.

 

[Reductionist]

Hi all, this is my first post here, I've been lurking here for some time though.
Tesla has uploaded a new website talking about Giga Berlin. It's mostly general information, but I noticed this passage:

Phase 1 will focus on production of Model Y, with a target capacity of 10,000 vehicles per week. We estimate that during Phase 1, we will employ up to 12,000 people, with roles being filled by local residents and employees from wider Europe.

Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg​

It seems like Phase 1 of Giga Berlin will be targeting 500k annual Model Y production before Model 3 and other vehicles. This is consistent with the remarks made at the public hearing in Grünheide, which said in essence:

• The factory Tesla is seeking permits for currently (500k capacity) is just Phase 1 - further phases are possible but haven't been discussed yet.
• The factory expected to start production in 2021 is the subset of Phase 1 that is achievable with the current external infrastucture, specifically water supply (~150k capacity)

So: Giga Berlin may be significantly bigger than the currently confirmed ~500k capacity, if you assume ~250k eventual Model 3 capacity (somewhat conservative I believe) and ~250k of 'future products', which the permits talk about, then Giga Berlin may get to 1M cars of annual capacity under currently (semi)-disclosed plans.
I don't believe this has been discussed here before, and feel free to correct anything wrong with this post!

 

[elasalle]

Benzinga - 50 minutes ago: How Tesla Could Use Its $2B In Offering Cash: A Cybertruck Plant, China, Debt Payoff

Excerpt:

Ross Gerber, co-founder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told Benzinga that Tesla is likely thinking ahead to building its Cybertruck manufacturing facility.

Yesterday RG tweeted they would use the monies for Berlin. I replied that it was for TX

 

[Prunesquallor]

Benzinga - 50 minutes ago: How Tesla Could Use Its $2B In Offering Cash: A Cybertruck Plant, China, Debt Payoff

Excerpt:

Ross Gerber, co-founder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, told Benzinga that Tesla is likely thinking ahead to building its Cybertruck manufacturing facility.

Wow, there are some talking points in that article that looked like they came right out of this thread.

 

[ammulder]

More on topic: lots of talk about a Texas Gigafactory and while Texas was in the running against Nevada for Giga 1, I’d think a more centralized eastern location would better serve logistically. As well several eastern states are economical and have plenty of workforce.

So long as it's in non-union areas, right? I thought the South was a better bet for that, on account of all the foreign-owned non-union factories there already.

I could see that. Elon said Cybertruck demand is unlike anything they've seen before and I'm sure Elon would LOVE to get Cybertruck at full production before any other EV truck is at scale as well (F150, Rivian, Hummer, Etc.) If Cybertruck is first to scale production, it will eat a ton of the reservations from other brands due to better range for the price.

Sandy Munro's estimate was that a modest volume CyberTruck plant could be done for $50M, right? I think they already had plenty of cash for a few of those.

But no point in building CyberTruck factories without juicing the battery supply, first. So I'm guessing the more expensive and difficult portion will be another battery Giga. They may announce battery and CyberTruck/Semi/etc. factories side by side, or may announce the battery plans first and keep the vehicle production plans closer to their vest until the battery supply is ramped.

No worries, I appreciate the feedback. To me, the EV market seems a lot like the early days of the PC. At first everyone tried to build their own, but eventually they standardized on a common motherboard design, chipset, and OS. I think EVs are going the same way, but Tesla will be the one supplying the motherboard, chipset, and OS.

If they go this way, I think someone's going to run into exactly what Microsoft did. Let's say Tesla offers up their skateboard and OS, and GM wants a certain radio unit or infotainment console or antenna or steering wheel haptic motor and Ford wants a different one and FCA wants a different one... Tesla has built functional support for exactly the pieces of hardware they use. Who builds support for all the random crap the OEMs put in their vehicles? The OEMs would STILL lack the expertise to build out Tesla's software stack ("OS") in an intelligent way. No way should Tesla be wasting their time supporting a bunch of hardware they don't actually put in their vehicles, which would drag down both their overall quality and their pace of innovation just to benefit the OEMs. Then watch as Tesla keeps pushing monthly updates of their software platform and the OEMs keep seeing their custom extensions break, so they end up only publishing annual updates or rapidly discontinuing support for older model years -- sorta like updates for Android handsets.

The only way to avoid that is for the OEMs to use Tesla's entire hardware stack too, except for the shell and the seats! And exactly how much value are they adding doing that?

 

[Zero CO2]

And a bit more Neil Peart love for those unfamiliar with the matter

continued off topic :

Just Revisited Rush's " New World Man" complete lyrics Elon Musk is the New World Man described in this Rush classic from the early 1980's... others i am sure knew this ... just hit me today

New World Man Lyrics | Rush.com

 

[Nocturnal]

French Giant Looks at Tesla With Burning Envy

Love seeing articles like this. Daimler, Nissan, and Renault stocks are sinking quickly. How long before Toyota and VW join those ranks?

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- On one side of the Atlantic, Tesla Inc. is capitalizing on its soaring share price by selling $2 billion in stock so it can build more electric vehicles. On the other, French manufacturer Renault SA has been forced to cut its dividend by 70% and announce a big reduction in fixed costs so it can afford to do the same.

Dwindling profits and Renault’s drastic remedies were mirrored this week by its Japanese alliance partner Nissan Motor Co., as well at Daimler AG. (Renault has an engineering partnership with Daimler and owns a small stake in the German car and truck maker.) Their problems aren’t identical but all three had expanded their workforces in anticipation of demand that hasn’t materialized and now they have to tighten their belts to pay for expensive electric vehicles, for which demand remains uncertain.

Renault’s shares are near their lowest level in eight years, which means the company is capitalized at barely 10 billion euros ($11 billion), a sum that includes the 43% stake Renault owns in Nissan. Needless to say, that’s a sliver of what Tesla is worth, even though the U.S. company’s annual output is still almost a rounding error for the Renault-Nissan alliance.

 

[Chocochip]

Here's something I wasn't aware of, despite it being related to my figurative back-yard:

A site in NW England (Greater Manchester area) was a favourite in the contest for the European GF!

And we don't even have tree plantations, WWII ammunition or endangered ants (that I'm aware of) here! We have Brexit tho!

L.E.: Having another look at the map, it seems this particular plot of land is near the Unsworth residential ward... wonder if this contributed to the final decision in any way...

 

[KarenRei]

Hi all, this is my first post here, I've been lurking here for some time though.
Tesla has uploaded a new website talking about Giga Berlin. It's mostly general information, but I noticed this passage:

Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg​

It seems like Phase 1 of Giga Berlin will be targeting 500k annual Model Y production before Model 3 and other vehicles. This is consistent with the remarks made at the public hearing in Grünheide, which said in essence:

• The factory Tesla is seeking permits for currently (500k capacity) is just Phase 1 - further phases are possible but haven't been discussed yet.
• The factory expected to start production in 2021 is the subset of Phase 1 that is achievable with the current external infrastucture, specifically water supply (~150k capacity)

So: Giga Berlin may be significantly bigger than the currently confirmed ~500k capacity, if you assume ~250k eventual Model 3 capacity (somewhat conservative I believe) and ~250k of 'future products', which the permits talk about, then Giga Berlin may get to 1M cars of annual capacity under currently (semi)-disclosed plans.
I don't believe this has been discussed here before, and feel free to correct anything wrong with this post!

Phase 1 Model Y production is just 1 of four roughly identical buildings ultimately planned for the site.

GF4 is freaking huge. Check it out on map overlays vs. Tesla's other facilities. They could easily do 2M cars per year there, just within the footprint that they've already listed as planning to build on. But they additionally have a ton of outlot land that they could use to expand to even larger sizes if they decided to in the future.