Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mad@gascar]

Do I count as an algobot?

You know the AI takeover is near when the AI bots are giving themselves Turing tests...

 

[azaz]

incredibly weird action today

lot of volume at open to surge to 857 then pushed down to 835 then steady to flat the rest of the day on super low volume

 

[dl003]

In my opinion, GS and JPM will not let the SP fall below 800 in the next couple of weeks. They want to keep their clients who subscribed happy. $840 looks like a good place to end this week, barring any new (positive) development.

 

[SageBrush]

Edit, excerpts from the video, 67M to build TSLA plant, 3 months to construct. 700M for avg peaker at 6-7 years. TSLA grid saved nearly 67M in fees that a peaker plant would've charged in 2 years. so my mistake, sorry its paid for itself 3x+ before a peaker is built.

That is all true ... for the South Australia case with its corrupt NG monopoly being broken.
I do not see how that case, wonderful as it is, can be a valid marketing tool for elsewhere

 

[rsm287]

Off the wall question: would you support a further $8B capital raise in the $800+ range?
Demand for it may be spurred in the midst of Battery Day reveal.
Rationale would be the (tacit) assumption of inevitable correction in the world economy.
In this scenario, growth capital spending may be accomplished at a steep discount, as unused supply/construction/labour capacity becomes available at cheaper prices. Regulatory headwinds may be reduced even further at locations that become hungry for scarce economic activity. The surplus available cash could compensate for an interim drop in consumer spending.
Coming out of a recession with 5X Giga capacity could advance the mission by years.

Funnily enough (if you include the $2 Billion just raised) ARK Invest are assuming a very similar figure for capital raise in their models:
Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

In all cases, except those in which it either is denied access to the capital markets or is bankrupt, we assume that Tesla issues $10 billion in equity capital to scale production at an accelerated rate and capitalize on its competitive advantages. We also anticipate that Tesla will issue incremental debt—tens of billions of dollars in some cases— to scale production and that the issuance will be governed by its profitability and collateralized by its fixed assets.

 

[Buckminster]

This shocked the world today apparently..
Jaguar Land Rover reveals secret autonomous Project Vector | Autocar

 

[Nocturnal]

Seems like somebody decided that the stock needs to be at $850 and there isn't anyone willing to call their bluff.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Lottery winners and Tesla longs should be given mandatory financial management classes upon cashing out. The stats on lotto winners are horrible. Your risk of death skyrockets like a December 2019 TSLA call purchased in June 2019. Most of it seems to come from friends and family. People don't handle jealousy very well.

My family doesn't know what my investments are like. Pretty much only one childhood friend who is in my same economic bracket and who I trust knows my holdings and recent return history.

The only people I've told about my TSLA investments are Mom and Dad and they are smart enough to keep their mouths shut. I think I'm safe.

 

[woodisgood]

Seems like somebody decided that the stock needs to be at $850 and there isn't anyone willing to call their bluff.

Yep, felt this morning’s premarket movement combined with Jonas’ note was to allow subscribers to flip their shares at a healthy profit, rather than a reaction to other positive news.

MM’s always win. We only get to win when our interests briefly align with theirs.

 

[Buckminster]

So when does FAANG turn into FATANG?

I think we can swap out Apple with Intel and introduce Ralph Lauren (bound to do well as they need to replace all those short shorts).
FARTING

 

[SageBrush]

Like 6/22 400c-450c you only pay ~ $40/share from the current SP to get a 2x leverage.
I think it's a sort of safe play to say SP will go up by $40 in 2 years.

I'm not following

I thought '400c-450c' means a strike price of 400 - 450. Since the SP is over 800, why does it have to increase $40 to be ITM ?

 

[wipster]

Correct. They are about 1/5 to 1/4 the way done in the U.S. There are a lot of state highways to do once they get the Interstates covered. I would really rather not travel on the boring Interstates and breathe all the truck fumes.

Luckily Tesla has the capability of determining where the most effective placement of off-interstate Superchargers should be. They know where you are and where you go and that will help tremendously in determining placement.

 

[Nocturnal]

Why are so many companies attempting their own Autonomous systems? Possible answers:

1. They are completely oblivious to the challenge and think they can beat Tesla and or Waymo to the finish line. (throw Cruise in there maybe)
2. They are confident that FSD is just a matter of time and want to make sure they can be a somewhat fast follower. Say somebody cracks it in 2025 they hope they can offer their on in 2030.
3. They believe that they need to fake progress on this front in order to keep investors happy.

Any other explanations? I'm leaning towards #3.

 

[Buckminster]

Previously shared:
Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW
The most interesting bit for me was:
Such systems will drastically cut the number of electronic control units, or ECUs, in cars. For suppliers that depend on these components, and their employees, this is a matter of life and death.

So big automakers apparently feel obliged to continue using complicated webs of dozens of ECUs, while we only found a few in the Model 3. Put another way, the supply chains that have helped today's auto giants grow are now beginning to hamper their ability to innovate.

Young companies like Tesla, on the other hand, are not shackled to suppliers and are free to pursue the best technologies available.
They can't and even if they could, they won't...
Maybe Bosch etc. will get into making BEVs or at least offering integrated platforms / skateboards.

 

[rsm287]

I think this is relevant to the recent discussions on whether Tesla needs to advertise:

How Tesla Beats Competitors Without Advertising

 

[SpaceCash]

Why are so many companies attempting their own Autonomous systems? Possible answers:

1. They are completely oblivious to the challenge and think they can beat Tesla and or Waymo to the finish line. (throw Cruise in there maybe)
2. They are confident that FSD is just a matter of time and want to make sure they can be a somewhat fast follower. Say somebody cracks it in 2025 they hope they can offer their on in 2030.
3. They believe that they need to fake progress on this front in order to keep investors happy.

Any other explanations? I'm leaning towards #3.

STRONGLY backing #3

 

[Rammstein]

You may want to review the TOU around free supercharging and ride-sharing, then you may want to edit this post afterward (should you ever need to make a warranty claim).

Privacy & Legal | Tesla

Oh good to know. So if Tesla sees me supercharging everyday then the warranty won’t be valid?

 

[humbaba]

This shocked the world today apparently..
Jaguar Land Rover reveals secret autonomous Project Vector | Autocar

Here's another link (no anti-ad-blocker) Jaguar Land Rover reveals secret autonomous Project Vector

The gist seems to be that they have a skateboard suitable for urban usage with essentially no other detail. That leads me to presume that range and speed are both limited which should ease design difficulty. However, there were no indications about:

- safety -- its great to have a skateboard and, sure, the end safety will depend on the overall design. However, while (understandably) popular, the idea of skateboard prevents optimizations. For example, how Tesla integrates the battery pack into the vehicle structure.

- autonomy -- it is hard to believe that they have any meaningful start on autonomy when it has been entirely stealth. Their options would appear to be that it was developed entirely from simulators (which are difficult to leverage past a certain point) or buying from a third party (perhaps mobile eye). In the first case they would be too immature to take seriously and in the later are relegating themselves to building commodity hardware

While interestingly, I don't think it particularly changes the landscape

 

[CanadaEV]

Funnily enough (if you include the $2 Billion just raised) ARK Invest are assuming a very similar figure for capital raise in their models:
Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

I hadn’t seen that!
But I’m glad to see it put me in good company

 

[Cherry Wine]

Oh good to know. So if Tesla sees me supercharging everyday then the warranty won’t be valid?

I don't know, but using supercharging for ride-sharing is against the TOU, so it could be used against you or they may otherwise revoke your supercharging privileges (based on the language in the TOU). There's no guarantee they'd find out, but I thought I'd pass along the info as an FYI.