Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VQTRVA]

Yes. It went to market on the same day it was announced. Well, it was subscribed that day, and placed the next day.

Thanks for the confirm.

I guess I had to be a VIP client @ JPM & GS to get it at that price.

 

[ggr]

I'm on pins and needles. Will today's close also be the high? Or will it keep bouncing off of $860?

It kept bouncing, but instantly went above $860 after market close. But I'm sure there wasn't any manipulation going on.

 

[dl003]

This looks suspiciously like a mini pump and dump into tomorrow.

 

[lafrisbee]

Regarding Tesla -- they actually spend a LOT of money advertising, but not the usual routes.

One is giving test rides. I get the impression that they take a $1/mile hit on the car sale price
The other is through referral perks.

The last time I tried to add these things up it came out to a lot less than other manufacturers, but I think ~ $500 a car IIRC

Promoting and advertising are not the same.

 

[mejojo]

Looks like they would ask me to modify my behaviour is I used the supercharger too often. Thanks

With nearing 350+ mile range, you wouldn't need to supercharge very often.

 

[wipster]

Well a very nice start to the short week!

 

[BenPrice]

This looks suspiciously like a mini pump and dump into tomorrow.

Idk, too many hats.

I think $887 close gets a challenge before the dump.

I made a bit with options, best I can do now is buy and hold and help at that point.

If it breaks, $1100 the following week.

 

[pz1975]

 

[KarenRei]

Mostly volatility crush.

IV hasn't been swinging my account much, as it's long range spreads And that's an argument against being in options in general

IV will go up and down many times before Mar '21 options expire.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Feb 5, 2020 Sold 2 PUTS 200221P650 @ 25

600-625 is key support level on the day after 4Q Earnings. So good probability that it will expire worthless. Let the volatility premium decay over time.

Another Put option I sold on 2/5/20 turned out sweet. Level 2 quote showed a B/A 0.17 / 0.21

Closed the 2 PUTs @ .20 each for profit of $4960

 

[Hock1]

OK, it took me 30 minutes to sift through the comments after this to see if this was asked. It wasn't so I will. Who the HELL is the fool at the end that keeps interrupting Kathy? He has got to be the rudest person I have ever seen call themselves a journalist. Is it not common practice that if you ask a guest on your show a question, you actually give them the chance to answer it? Holly smokes this guy is awful. His disdain for Kathy, her company, her targets, and generally anything EV (especially Tesla) is obvious and his decorum with people is worse than a 5 year old. No, I taught 5 year olds for years. That last sentence is a disrespect to 5 year olds. They would NEVER be allowed to talk to another person like that.

Just sayin'

Dan

Don't even have to look to tell you who it is: Joe Kiernan. The guy, literally, is not well.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Don't even have to look to tell you who it is: Joe Kiernan. The guy, literally, is not well.

Thanks for the info. I want to see some of his other interviews and see if he is this way all the time or just when EVs are the topic of conversation.

Dan

 

[Silentk]

The only people I've told about my TSLA investments are Mom and Dad and they are smart enough to keep their mouths shut. I think I'm safe.

Is that you Mark?

 

[smorgasbord]

As was discussed here, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley thinks the current quarter (2020Q1) will show a loss for Tesla of $440 Million (I assume that's GAAP) on delivering only 89K cars in the quarter.

This doesn't feel right to me, but I'd like some data. According to the slide presentation on 2019Q4 results, Fremont is already at a combined 490K per year production rate (Models S, X, and 3). So, even if Shanghai were to be completely shut down this quarter, that would still be 122K cars produced in the quarter just from Fremont. And even with seasonal demand issues, there should still be enough in US and Europe to buy all those produced.

Throw in the potential for FCA Europe clean-air credits and I don't see how Tesla isn't profitable in 2020Q1.

Can anyone shed additional light - pro or con?

[Edited to get quarters right]

 

[EVMeister]

Well a very nice start to the short week!

Or not, depending on how you interpret that sentence.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Question: did the $2B secondary offering @$767/shr go to market yet?

The implied real question behind these questions (you're like the 4th person to ask essentially the same thing the last few days) is when will the buyers of the $2B placement flip their shares. Most likely, the vast majority of the 2.6m shares placed were sold to buy and hold institutional investors, and thus won't be flipped. 2.6m shares was a fairly small placement compared to the average daily volume, so the underwriters were able to pick and choose which of their clients they allocated shares to. This is evidenced by the fact that they placed all 2.6m shares in one day.

Underwriters DO NOT want to crash the stock price. It looks bad on them, they won't get fat underwriting fees in the future if they develop a reputation for dumping stock placements to flippers. So they called up their institutional buy and hold clients and basically told them that this was the last chance they'd be able to buy Tesla stock at $767 barring some huge macro event.

 

[smorgasbord]

Presume you mean 2020Q1

yes, sorry - I'll edit if I can.

 

[BriansTesla]

I'm very bullish on Tesla long-term (also short-term but considerably less so). But I completely disagree that the company's future is considerably brighter now than it was in June 2019.

I would agree with everything here except that every day, the Tesla "competition" is looking more inept and further behind.

You almost want to feel sorry for them. Almost.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks for the confirm.

I guess I had to be a VIP client @ JPM & GS to get it at that price.

More than that, you had to be a big institutional investor. My guess is $20M minimum buy. You'll note that no one on this forum got those shares. Not that it matters. I mean I bought shares on the open market at $767 early that morning after the share placement was announced. Any retail investor had about 30 minutes after markets opened, and after the deal was announced, to buy shares at $767 or below. So please, no crying about how unfair it all is - it wasn't unfair and you too could have gotten even a better deal.

 

[wipster]

Or not, depending on how you interpret that sentence.

LMAO!! OK, make that "four day" week...

A waist is a terrible thing to mind...