Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gerebgraus]

My impression: I suspect that Tesla's supply chain, production will not have major disruption beyond what we had in January in China. Demand will be slightly down, because recession will have an impact but that might just affect pricing power and profit slightly.
So I attribute the huge price drop in SP to the fact that TSLA holders are overleveraged + sitting on huge profits so it is not that painful to sell. Decision for myself: I cannot guess how far it will go down. I do not need to get cash out in the near future. I do not have short term options. I think long term Tesla will go huge. In fact I think Model Y teardown will prove that tesla became the best car body and interior manufacturer, and battery day will prove Tesla BEV's will be cheaper than ICE cars. Combined the two things means that Tesla will have monopilitic pricing power.
And bonus: if a recession means that agent orange will not get reelected that is a plus for Tesla.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Shaw 'nuff looks like it:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Nothing in those posts indicate this week. My bet is that they're for March 15 onward, as is the rest of the model Ys.

 

[oldTAVguy]

715 looking very much like the bottom. If I had dry powder I'd be heaping it in.

No buys at 725, 716 and 711...

 

[avoigt]

We might be only at the start of panic mode. Wall Street is just starting to realize now that this virus could have an effect on companies bottom lines...

Panic is great if you are smart enough to take advantage from it and buy knowing that fundamentals did not change.

Value erased in the last days does not comply at all with the few companies that will have lower income because of Corona Virus while most of that will likely anyway mitigated from governments like China who is already pumping money in the market.

Netflix did gain yesterday I believe it was 6% and today its right now 1.5% and you can guess why!

If you are locked in at home for 2 weeks what are you doing all the time? Maybe watching some movies or series because you have 2 weeks to hang out and most of those infected call it symptoms just like a flue.

Luckily my second largest holding is Netflix.

So ask yourself what the negative business impact on Tesla will be with an online sales model where people have a lot of time to surf sitting at home and maybe decide to shop a car online? Yes there are severely ill people in hospitals but thats the older generation and kids have a much lower rate than flue usually are not infected at all and middle age just usual symptoms that don't matter much.

Considering to go into Tesla calls when a bottom is forming.

P.S: please shout so I don't miss it

 

[KarenRei]

Must be a regional access thing because the article is viewable for me. Basically Tesla and its landlord have moved a large number of crates and loaded pallets from the Giga2 space to a warehouse space in another company’s vacant building area that is the equivalent of a football field. The machinery as I read is owned the the landlord, Empire State Development, who thought if Tesla failed in the space they could lease the space out to someone else to move in and use. Don’t get this part. Given Tesla I would think they have their own uniquely designed equipment for production. With battery day reported to be held at this location kind of interesting development as well.

Is this from that crazy guy Dan Telvock? He's tweeting about it on Twitter, something insidious about Tesla moving crates on a truck. Crates that look suspiciously like the crates that Tesla uses to ship Supercharger hardware in. Supercharger hardware being something that's built at Buffalo.

Alter of ViggoPuppy on Twitter

 

[Krugerrand]

I do not understand why some people on the forum are so quick to dismiss the whole Coronavirus deal as temporary...

Um...because it is or else we all die, in which case nothing matters.

People have chastised Elon for his mistakes. The one difference between him and (everyone it applies to) is he learns from his mistakes and doesn’t repeat them. Not so much for the others.

If you’re still traumatized by 2000 and 2008 then why in the world do you have any resources in the market today?! Makes zero logical sense. Get the heck out and stay out until you’ve dealt with your emotional baggage from previous historic market reactions.

The whole, OMG! OMG! emotional drama queen stuff going on is tiresome because people never learn. And no, throwing in a ‘look I’m being rational’ disclaimer doesn’t pass the sniff test.

I have heard this speech so many times on this board that I’m tone deaf to it and anyone flogging one. BREXIT when TSLA went to $140, trade fiasco with China every 48 hours for months, corona virus now, price increases, price decreases, closing stores, opening stores, fire, crash, upper level employee departures, Q12019, tweets, SEC, lawsuits...

It’s exhausting riding all of the emotional rollercoasters people insist on riding, over and over and over again. Doesn’t anyone want to be at ******* peace AND walking the earth at the same time?!

There is a place of balance in life where a person can take life in stride, experiencing emotions without being taken over by emotion.

And now you know why nobody is invited to my island. If I want this much drama in my life, I’ll get a puppy.

 

[Todd Burch]

Nothing in those posts indicate this week. My bet is that they're for March 15 onward, as is the rest of the model Ys.

Doesn't say before Mar. 1 for sure, but at least in my experience "Prepare for Delivery" usually has been the final imminent steps...within days. His delivery location, registration information, and payment method checkmarks are all checked. And he's located in Cali. Anyone else have more info on how close to actual delivery "Prepare for Delivery" typically is?

 

[SMAlset]

Tesla doesn't own the property of GF2? Color me surprised.

No apparently leased space. From the WGRZ channel 2 news story:

“ESD bought the land and built the factory for $660.1 million. The legal agreement also calls for ESD to purchase equipment for the factory. According to state documents, the equipment cost an additional $298.5 million.

The rationale for the state equipping the factory was that if the venture with Tesla failed, the state would have a turn-key operation to bring in another tenant.“

 

[Artful Dodger]

Another 100 bought at $718. Next buy at $700.

Looks like more sellers than buyers now at $692.

'Uptick Rule' curcuit breakers should have kicked now since we hit $700.92

 

[johnnybgood888]

My last and final tranche of 100 shares bought at $700. I've finally accumulated my target # of long term holding shares. Any buying and selling going forward will just be for fun.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Complete panic.

Edit: but I am not worried since we will all die in a week..

 

[Krugerrand]

So blindly ignore the fear that spreads through the markets and the fact that we just passed 420 this January? I remember the way from 380 to 180, it was not pleasant(I know this is a different case).

Not a single person here has ever suggested ‘blindly’ ignoring the fear. The point is do NOT add to the irrational fear (yes, it’s irrational) AND feel free to take advantage of the irrational fear.

 

[SMAlset]

Doesn't say before Mar. 1 for sure, but at least in my experience "Prepare for Delivery" usually has been the final imminent steps...within days. His delivery location, registration information, and payment method checkmarks are all checked. And he's located in Cali. Anyone else have more info on how close to actual delivery "Prepare for Delivery" typically is?

if you read the Model Y threads here on TMC people have been posting for two days now their delivery emails. They are directed to schedule delivery and given a calendar selection of days to do so in March. One guys calendar was mid to end of March but another person said he was able to see days earlier.

 

[Leo9]

Price gap to close: 674 to 654.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Personally I'm looking for a drop toward $750 or god willing $700 later next week if this macro mess continues. Then we sell some $600 June/Sep puts and laugh all the way through Memorial Day.

Free money.

 

[MABMAB]

Volume increasing
Data sources running late.
This is a dangerous market to be involved in
RCB kicked in

 

[UCF3]

Well we flew by $699 pretty quick

 

[marvinat0rz]

The only way covid-19 can have a serious detrimental effect on Tesla, is if demand and production are reduced to much that the company has trouble servicing its debts. I think that is a looooooong way off, and not at all a reasonable worry at this stage. Tesla was driving much closer to the cliff edge a year or two ago, there is greater margin for macro mishaps today. And remember that this is a macroeconomic issue. It affects everyone, including competition. Competition might actually be hit worse, since their debt burden is higher.

In a reasonably bad case, we are looking at a significant portion of the population (first in China, then in the rest of the world) staying at home from work for a few weeks, either due to disease or due to voluntary quarantine. The point of the quarantines is to slow down the rate of infection, so we don't get a massive spike that overwhelms the healthcare system. This is not a permanent brake on the world economy. We are in the worst case talking about a slowdown of a year or so, which honestly might even be a good thing with the current high valuations of the stock market in general. Would mean layoffs in more speculative companies, less investment by incumbents and hence easier availability of world-class talent.

That said, I wonder whether the planned stock sale will go ahead in the current, fearful macro climate. I would not be surprised to see the stock price fall further in the short term, due to general market panic and (irrational, but hey) additional selloffs in volatile stocks. I would have liked to see the $2 billion sale completed, but there should be time for it in the future.

 

[PhaseWhite]

What pisses *me* off is that, with my budget, I bought 4 yesterday when I could've bought 5 (or even 6!) today!
(it's ok, I could've bought just 3 just a week ago)

How many will you be able to buy next week?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Down $104 on only 7 million shares traded?!?!?