Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dr. J]

What an interesting idea! I’m seriously consider doing the same. Anyone can think of any reason not to do it? As long as TSLA can outperform other car manufacturers plus interest, you make money.

One thing that can go wrong with shorting stocks is that you can lose more than your investment--losses are unlimited. Will that happen with traditional automakers? I dunno. But it's a ballsy move!

 

[gene]

Stopped by the Porsche dealer today. Nice picture of the Taycan next to my Model 3. I prefer the Model 3 and think it looks just as appealing.

Sticker was $206K! The sticker says Air Freight? To think you could buy 4 Model 3's for the price of the Taycan. I think they will sell a few thousand here per year.

View attachment 519656 View attachment 519652

The Taycan looks like a sad clown. Your Model 3 seems to have a smile on it.

 

[SMAlset]

If you were disappointed you didn't get to watch a video from the twitter thread that featured a video of Jeff Dahn speaking about the research towards the million mile battery and single-crystal approach, thought I would post a link to IOPscience for the Dahn/Dalhousie's papers from September 2019 and the latest one in January 2020, both were published in the Journal of The Electrochemical Society. The twitter thread had screen grabs from the speech that match the images used in the papers, also references to NMC532 (Published 9/6/19) and NMC811 (Published Jan 10). Not as fun a read as listening to Jeff speak (as a professor he's a great presenter and easy to follow) but thought many of you would like to read through both papers before Battery Day.

You can read and/or download the papers (open access) on IOPscience's website. It has this Notice at the top: "NOTICE: Our engineering team is currently investigating significant increases in our website traffic...." Hmmm batteries popular research, who would have thought.

IOPscience

September paper entitled "A Wide Range of Testing Results on an Excellent Lithium-Ion Cell Chemistry to be used as Benchmarks for New Battery Technologies"
Jessie E. Harlow, Xiaowei Ma, Jing Li, Eric Logan, Yulong Liu, Ning Zhang, Lin Ma, Stephen L. Glazier, Marc M. E. Cormier, Matthew Genovese, Samuel Buteau, Andrew Cameron, Jamie E. Stark and J. R. Dahn, 2019 J. Electrochem. Soc. 166 A3031.
Search by: 10.1149/2.0981913jes

January paper entitled "Microstructural Observations of "Single Crystal" Positive Electrode Materials Before and After Long Term Cycling by Cross-section Scanning Electron Microscopy"
Yulong Liu, Jessie Harlow and Jeff Dahn, Published 10 January 2020 • © 2020 The Author(s). Published on behalf of The Electrochemical Society by IOP Publishing Limited, Journal of The Electrochemical Society, Volume 167, Number 2.
Search by: 10.1149/1945-7111/ab6288

For some background some time ago Elon tweeted that Tesla had managed to cut Cobalt down to less than 3% and will use none in the next gen ( Tesla Shanghai Model 3 May Go Cobalt-Free Using CATL's LFP Cells — Diving Deeper | CleanTechnica )
A recent article stated that GM had reduced the use of Cobalt 70% in their new Ultium battery using a proprietary chemistry of their own ( GM says its new low-cobalt EV battery cell has 60% more capacity - Electrek ). Theirs uses NCMA. GM reportedly plans to license theirs to other companies. Here's an article on Tesla's patent on their new million mile battery ( Tesla patents new chemistry for better, longer-lasting and cheaper batteries - Electrek ).

Not everything mentioned in the twitter thread by those that had watched the video of Jeff's speech was included in the papers. No luck finding the video anywhere and looked to be from possibly a lecture he was holding and recorded by one of the students there. Probably won't resurface. My husband watched part of it but it was late and he only got half way through and thought he could come back to it and when I went to watch it myself it had been taken down. Glad to have found the papers nonetheless.

 

[tslagreen]

Predictably, instead of repeating the article’s original headline:

Tesla is ‘better run’ after leadership tumult, says top investor

MarketWatch came up with the following headlines:

Elon Musk ‘was getting things wrong’, says top investor

and:

Tesla chairwoman gives Elon the ‘emotional support’ he needs, says top investor

Shows how much they hate Elon at MarketWatch...

Marketwatch is the new Reuters. So anti-Tesla. Reuters has been a little more neutral to fair lately.

 

[dw4ngg]

What an interesting idea! I’m seriously consider doing the same. Anyone can think of any reason not to do it? As long as TSLA can outperform other car manufacturers plus interest, you make money.

I have F and GM puts bc of exactly this. I think Tesla will outperform them; plus, as a bonus, I get a natural market hedge.

 

[guidooo]

Anyone can think of any reason not to do it?

Ethics ? The wish to deserve some good karma points ? Although I do have sincere doubts those are valued in at least parts of the Wall Street theater.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have F and GM puts bc of exactly this. I think Tesla will outperform them; plus, as a bonus, I get a natural market hedge.

That is a key consideration IMO, not only how Tesla does in Q1 2020 compared to Q2 2019, but how Tesla does in Q1 2020 compared to other car makers and the economy in general..

We know Tesla is more vertically integrated so less dependent on components from overseas..

As far as we know production seems to be going OK, both in Fremont and China...

As far as we can tell demand is also OK and delivery logistics are working well...

Tesla may get some significant regulatory credits Q1 2020.

So there is still a good chance of a reasonable result for Tesla Q1 2020.

Many other car makers are likely to have a Q1 2020 result significantly worse than Q4 2019, with the virus compounding seasonal factors, and already sluggish demand..

The main upside I see for the industry in general is lower production may allow them to shift inventory, including unattractive inventory that is slow moving.. that is mainly a boon for dealers.. short term.. But when production gets moving again dealers have space and will want new cars...

As we also noted earlier Tesla has lower inventory and started Q1 2020 with lower inventory levels, so good production rates are essential..

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I do wonder what the significance of oil prices cratering in the near term will be on sales of electric cars. I like to imagine that people won't believe oil will be $20 a gallon forever or whatever the current prediction is.

 

[Fobble]

The market is in the bearish mode and downward trend. However, keep in mind that the governments (I do mean plurals) will act to help the economy one way or the other for sure in the form of free check or tax cut and free loan to corporations. The market can just shoot up and hard without prior notice. No one knows for sure what's coming.
If you are a long term investor and still have dry powder, accumulating your favorite companies' stocks in phases may be the right thing to do.

 

[Zero CO2]

It's not falling because inventories are rising (e.g. people using less oil globally). It's falling because of Saudi Arabia decided to launch an oil price war. And everybody knows this.

I don't pretend to understand OPEC, WTI, Brent crude price wars etc; however I do understand this

I was on a Jet Blue flight from Newark NJ to Orlando Florida Saturday evening and I had no one next to me and the row in front and behind was empty(great to ward of COVID-19) ... this is unreal .. these flights are typically jam packed with snowbirds and parents with kids going to Disney etc ... I have not been on a flight this empty since post 9-11... so there is an impact ... not sure how long it will last ...

also i was thru security and sitting in the terminal A in about 5 minutes ....

Air Canada was attempting to combine flights to Toronto while i was sitting there ... just saying

 

[mblakele]

If you were disappointed you didn't get to watch a video from the twitter thread that featured a video of Jeff Dahn speaking about the research towards the million mile battery and single-crystal approach, thought I would post a link to IOPscience for the Dahn/Dalhousie's papers from September 2019 and the latest one in January 2020, both were published in the Journal of The Electrochemical Society. The twitter thread had screen grabs from the speech that match the images used in the papers, also references to NMC532 (Published 9/6/19) and NMC811 (Published Jan 10). Not as fun a read as listening to Jeff speak (as a professor he's a great presenter and easy to follow) but thought many of you would like to read through both papers before Battery Day.

[...]

Not everything mentioned in the twitter thread by those that had watched the video of Jeff's speech was included in the papers. No luck finding the video anywhere and looked to be from possibly a lecture he was holding and recorded by one of the students there. Probably won't resurface. My husband watched part of it but it was late and he only got half way through and thought he could come back to it and when I went to watch it myself it had been taken down. Glad to have found the papers nonetheless.

Good links, but isn't this the video?

I knew this Dahn video would be gone in few days, so i downloaded it Link below.

Spoiler

Dropbox - Jeff Dahn (Tesla Battery Research) Talking Lithium Battery Additives.mp4 - Simplify your life

Note that dropbox only shows the first 15-min unless you download the file, or add it to your dropbox. The full video is about 1-hr.

 

[StealthP3D]

1. It's Bloomberg.
2. Just another battery of the week. After awhile you get tired of these stories.

You forgot #3:

3. It's Bloomberg.

 

[Zero CO2]

The Taycan looks like a sad clown. Your Model 3 seems to have a smile on it.

 

[hacer]

Aside from the weird "openings" below the headlights, clipped below, I think the Taycan has a great appearance. At the same time, it's wonderful advertising for Tesla. Once a car buyer starts looking at EVs, whether drawn in by the Taycan or another model, they'll normally end up learning about Tesla's offerings. My prediction is that it won't be too long before we see significant discounts on Taycans, just as we've seen with other would-be "Tesla killers".
View attachment 519662

Those weird openings are just the Taycan crying - for lots of reasons.

 

[Kuhz]

I don't pretend to understand OPEC, WTI, Brent crude price wars etc; however I do understand this

I was on a Jet Blue flight from Newark NJ to Orlando Florida Saturday evening and I had no one next to me and the row in front and behind was empty(great to ward of COVID-19) ... this is unreal .. these flights are typically jam packed with snowbirds and parents with kids going to Disney etc ... I have not been on a flight this empty since post 9-11... so there is an impact ... not sure how long it will last ...

also i was thru security and sitting in the terminal A in about 5 minutes ....

Air Canada was attempting to combine flights to Toronto while i was sitting there ... just saying

Traffic in Seattle area has also decreased dramatically.

 

[dw4ngg]

Looks like we’re going to hit the 5% overnight loss limit rules on futures, at least on S&P.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's not falling because inventories are rising (e.g. people using less oil globally). It's falling because of Saudi Arabia decided to launch an oil price war. And everybody knows this.

The Saudi move just brought the drop forward in 1 day, we were headed to $30 within a month or two regardless. Been oversupplied for 5 years and demand was flattening..... before coronavirus shut down the world economy.

 

[StealthP3D]

Exactly this. Price wars with the potential to destabilize major economies are not bullish.

Things could get much, much uglier from here on out folks. The yield on the 10-year T Note just dipped below 0.5% which is absolutely unprecedented and indicates a titanic flight to safety.

The fed was extremely premature with its Coronavirus-induced rate cut and has few rounds left in the chamber.

We are in the throes of an election year. One of the candidates is openly hostile to Wall Street and will cause further panic and volatility depending on how things progress. The incumbent candidate has solicited foreign interference in our elections and has intimated that he may refuse to accept certain outcomes. This election has the potential to be very weird and very chaotic.

For those reasons I’ve exited all long positions, including TSLA shares I’ve held since 2012. I am currently 90% in cash and 10% in medium-term SPY puts.

People have been predicting a recession every year since 2011, but there is reason to believe that this time is indeed different. Be careful out there. The economy is highly leveraged right now, the market is richly valued, policy makers have few tools left at their disposal and there are unprecedented things going on globally and domestically. Not an advice.

I am calm and content. Why? Because my positions are only long ownership positions and none of them should suffer any long-term harm. This is not my first rodeo and I know how quickly these things tend to pass. We are approaching max fear and I have plenty of dry powder. This little excursion in the weeds will end up highly profitable for me.

While the precautions to slow the spread of the Coronavirus will cost the overall economy, it's very unlikely to put it into a lasting recession. The bounce back will be hard and fast. People are not spending money at previous levels, it's building up in their bank accounts. That's because travel, eating and drinking out, shopping for clothing and durable goods, etc. are all greatly reduced. The money has not been destroyed like it was in the great recession. When the fear starts to abate, people will make up for lost time.

Cheap gas will also help us power out of it with unprecedented speed. Money not spent at the pump is freed up for discretionary spending. Economic turmoil actually helps disruptive industries disrupt. This is how change happens. We are at a golden age of change, innovation and disruption. Don't be fearful, make it work for you while everyone else is running around claiming the sky is falling.

 

[MC3OZ]

I do wonder what the significance of oil prices cratering in the near term will be on sales of electric cars. I like to imagine that people won't believe oil will be $20 a gallon forever or whatever the current prediction is.

There are a lot more add on costs in the process, refining, transport, sales etc... so a lower oil price only goes so far in lowering the price at the pump...

Beyond that, consider how it plays out... price drops ... some production becomes nonviable, that production closes, price possibly rises, demand drops, cycle repeats...

So I expect increased price volatility and perhaps some disruption to supply, for now it is a buyers market, as production drops it cycles between a buyers and sellers market regularly, and supply cycles between over and under supply.

I would call it a "dying fish" market, it is very hard to die gracefully. Considering the parties involved Russia and the Saudi's they are trying to look after the most important interests first and foremost, their interests, and they are not overly concerned about collateral damage.

 

[StealthP3D]

I do wonder what the significance of oil prices cratering in the near term will be on sales of electric cars. I like to imagine that people won't believe oil will be $20 a gallon forever or whatever the current prediction is.

1) Cheap gas does nothing for reducing pollution in cities and greenhouse gasses.
2) Even if gas goes to $2/gallon or a bit less, EV's will still have a big cost of ownership advantage with their higher resale and lack of regular maintenance.
3) Less than 2% of all EV sales are driven primarily by the fact that electricity was typically less than gas.
4) Yes, people know greedy oil companies will only do this for long enough to put higher-cost producers out of business. Then it will be back to business as usual. This is about getting people to spend more on gas (on average, over time), not less.