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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Cat Checking
Member
Whose, I may be in the market soon.
This guy makes some good points:-
https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...ttomed-ask-ben-griffiths-20200311-p548zy.html
https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...ttomed-ask-ben-griffiths-20200311-p548zy.html
Post your favourite booze here, and we will do a match... we don't stock anything for non-drinkers.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
1. while your first point(tax collection)has some merit , that is a technicality rather than the cause...money is actually debt in a fiat system...if the dollar is a IOU that people give value to, they have to have faith that the debtor(US govt) will pay it back one day, hence the masses dont cash in all the treasuries all at once...if they lost faith, the value of debt and dollar would tank...we have faith that the US govt won't dissolve...and although it is true that the Fed Reserve could print money all day if they wanted to, in practicality they can't and would not do this as it would cause severe inflation...gas would be 20.00 a gallon and loaf of bread would 20.00 also...they have to increase the national debt in gradual increments otherwise we'd have runaway inflation...do you realize that despite our banks holding 10T of our cash in the US, the FDIC only has 25B in their reserves lol?!.....if there was a true run on the banks on a national level, sure the Fed's could print 10T to fund the FDIC, but you better have a bucket of cash handy to buy your mornings starbucks....
While I don't give too much thought to the crazies who are constantly predicting the collapse of fiat money, the fact is that it's definitely possible. If it's going to happen a good candidate would be during the transition from oil to renewables. In other words, in the next three decades. Right now it's a very low risk because the world is controlled by billionaires who depend upon a stable currency to continue running their businesses efficiently. They will do whatever is required to keep it afloat.
That said, this possibility highlights one reason why it's more important in the bigger picture to own productive assets like companies with production facilities, software platforms and retail distribution channels than it is to own cash. Because one has real value that tends to increase over time (on average) while the other has no intrinsic value (as Germans after the end of WWI found out). I hold plenty of cash during downturns but would be VERY uncomfortable being 100% in cash. Too risky. Most Americans have this misguided notion that stocks are risky. That's true individually, especially if you happen to own a company that has already seen it's best days, but, in the aggregate, they are less risky overall than cash. Because cash isn't productive and it loses value due to inflation. If you own productive companies traded in US dollars and the dollar loses 90% of its value, your stock offers a lot of protection against loss of value.
I think that people will feel foolish for over-reacting so strongly to the loss of earnings brought on by the Coronavirus (because it's a temporary loss). I predict the best, most forward-thinking public companies will shoot up in value well before this Coronavirus has run its course. Because those who make the most money in the stock market bet on things that are not yet a certainty. That's why they say the market is forward-looking. The market is as forward-looking as the leading market participants are. And the leading market participants are the ones who take home the bulk of the profits during events such as this. Those who wait for safety (or the illusion of safety) will not be getting the good deals.
IMO Tesla is a high-quality name, close to the top of the tree
Well, my employer has told us to work from home for the next two weeks, same for my husband. Kids are home as schools are closed. College kids also home as classes will be online. All of us cooped up in the house at least for next two weeks with no movie theaters, shopping malls or eating out - I am already dreading it!
Also, somehow, although it is only Sunday and we would be home anyways, am feeling extremely bored!
Local Trader Joe's had most of their food shelves picked clean - but fresh fruits and veggies were available in plenty. I guess people only stock up on TP and shelf-stable foods.
We also stocked up on our favorites to keep us sane during these difficult times - including this (how could we not
)
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We also stocked up on our favorites to keep us sane during these difficult times - including this (how could we not)
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A fine choice in libations. And also a fine choice in granite. I love Blue Pearl.
We also stocked up on our favorites to keep us sane during these difficult times - including this (how could we not
)View attachment 522236[/QUOTE]
A fine choice in libations. And also a fine choice in granite. I love Blue Pearl.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
The count of cases will get worse, but I’m not sure the level of panic can get any worse. It already seems to be maxed.
It’s the latter that affects stock prices.
If you buy Puts, say for GM, and they are going to go bankrupt, and then the government says they will bail them out, what happens to the stock owners? Do they lose everything and the Puts are worth a lot, or does that save the stock owners and the Put owners lose a lot? (Asking for a friend).
The Trump administration's actions are promoting panic by a spectacular combination of incompetence and impulsivity. In Colorado, we have some adults in charge and they are methodically doing what they need to do. Focus on hygiene, social distancing, and caring for your fellow man. I think we are all going to take a short-term economic hit.
At Tesla, there is an abundance of responsible adults in the room. Think it through and
At Tesla, there is an abundance of responsible adults in the room. Think it through and
How far forward would you say the stock market is looking right now? I've generally heard 3-6 months. If that's the case then you should buy because this coronavirus thing will be over then. My concern is that we (the USA) won't see the maximum pain point in this outbreak until the first week of April. If we follow the China and South Korea pattern, that's when we'll peak on new daily cases (with peak daily deaths following around two weeks later).
Agree that confirmed case will get worse.
Disagree that panic is at its max. There’s still a lot of people who haven’t completely recognized the severity of the situation. I see it everyday online, including on Nextdoor in my neighborhood, who are still adamant that the regular flu is worse. Thanks to a particular someone. Their follow-up argument is usually along the lines of, “Everything will get better now that we have tests readily available.” A quickly growing case and death count will slowly and slowly change the opinions of the nonchalant population. People are now only starting to shut down businesses and schools. We don’t know what the earnings or economic numbers will be in the following months. The market is only 20% off from the high as of Friday, whereas the bottom in the recession was 50% off.
We can disagree, and I honestly appreciate the difference in opinions. My opinion is that there will be no plug until an anti-viral or vaccine is federally approved, or we see ourselves getting off incidence rate curve we’re on.
I’m continuing to bet the downward for now, which has served me well so far to cushion the losses on holdings that I didn’t sell yet.
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just be careful during these troubled times - being bored at home, down about the news and market reaction - go easy on the booze! I made my share of bad decisions, including this post from october 2018 "i was a little bummed earlier by the rockefeller effect on price, but exactly one bottle of cheap italian wine has elevated my mood dramatically. not an advice."
5 days later I was diagnosed with Pancreatitis.
Haven't had a drop to drink since, had to go on super-strict under 20 grams of fat / day diet for months to start feeling a reduction in pain. Lost 80 pounds last year, I exercise every day, and beat the crap out of pancreatitis. Damn if those pics of beer don't call to me still though.
5 days later I was diagnosed with Pancreatitis.
Haven't had a drop to drink since, had to go on super-strict under 20 grams of fat / day diet for months to start feeling a reduction in pain. Lost 80 pounds last year, I exercise every day, and beat the crap out of pancreatitis. Damn if those pics of beer don't call to me still though.
Some really big assumptions.
What exactly makes you so sure that this whole virus thing will be over in 3-6 months?
How far has the US modeled the 2 different styles of coordinated responses by the Chinese or Korean central governments?
(Hint: nowhere remotely close to what they have done)
This comment is an example of why I believe we have a long way to go.
Flame on.
Edit: Apparently, a lot of Oklahomans and their governor still believe this is just a bug you can squash on the window.
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mars_or_bust
Member
Don't know if this has been mentioned here, but things are (very surprisingly to me at least) looking up in Germany:
"Despite the fear of the coronavirus, the planning and construction of the planned Giga Berlin will go according to plan. Mayor of Grünheide expects that this situation will not affect the construction of the Tesla factory. Postponing a public hearing on objections to the plant is also not relevant to the approval process."
Tesla Giga Berlin Construction Won’t Be Delayed By Coronavirus, Says Grünheide's Mayor
"Despite the fear of the coronavirus, the planning and construction of the planned Giga Berlin will go according to plan. Mayor of Grünheide expects that this situation will not affect the construction of the Tesla factory. Postponing a public hearing on objections to the plant is also not relevant to the approval process."
Tesla Giga Berlin Construction Won’t Be Delayed By Coronavirus, Says Grünheide's Mayor
Dr. J
Active Member
If you have to drink, this stuff will kill off any viruses in your mouth. I take a swig whenever I get home from shopping.
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