Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[abouttime]

Bought 48 more shares.

The way I see it, there are two possible outcomes:
a) Economy never recovers, greatly reducing emissions
b) Economy recovers, TSLA greatly reduces emissions

Simple and stupid. Green future secured.

 

[lklundin]

Ooooh teslas hype train begins (model Y deliveries begin announcement tweet)

Tesla on Twitter

The watershed moment of this clip is that Tesla simply says:

"Look at me, I am the best car you can buy today"

- unlike expensive commercials from competitors that say:

"Look at me, I am an electric car you can buy some day"...

 

[goinfraftw]

Small sample size, but searches during this Model Y launch are correlating to an increase in Model 3 searches. No effect, so far, on Model S. Google Trends

 

[clp1]

I don't know, I am really regretting not selling some when it was at 900-800. I have 104 shares at a price of 270.
With everything going as it is, wouldn't you think a price of 350 is in the cards short term? Holy crap, I could have almost doubled my position had I seen this coming.
Do I hold or sell some and buy back in if it gets lower? Its getting hard to lose 10 grand every day.

 

[sparcs]

MarketWatch: Tesla starts delivering Model Y compact SUV

not much in the article. just liked the headline.

 

[JusRelax]

MarketWatch: Tesla starts delivering Model Y compact SUV

not much in the article. just liked the headline.

Surprise surprise... article is by Claudia Assis and has TONS of mistakes in it.. like this gem:

In October, Chief Executive Elon Musk said he expected the Model Y to outsell the Model 3 mass-market sedan, the Model X luxury sedan, and the SUV Model X combined.

 

[Ameliorate]

I don't know, I am really regretting not selling some when it was at 900-800. I have 104 shares at a price of 270.
With everything going as it is, wouldn't you think a price of 350 is in the cards short term? Holy crap, I could have almost doubled my position had I seen this coming.
Do I hold or sell some and buy back in if it gets lower? Its getting hard to lose 10 grand every day.

It's at these levels where risk of not being able to buy back what you had is high if you sell today, nobody can say definitively if it will drop further. In contrast, being able to buy below 900 had a decent chance, though without NCOV I'm not sure you'd have seen it. I feel worse with FOMO being out of a company I love than in and down a few bucks, but that's me (and maybe not conducive to highest % appreciation but sanity is worth something too)

Edit, and if it drops another 100 points but you wait for 150 and it rockets back up 200, well... that's a loss too. Not only does it have to drop, but you have to time your entry correct. Then there's taxes if applicable.

 

[adiggs]

Markets should be closed from Wednesday thru the next 8 business days. Make folks place their bets on Tuesday and I imagine you'll see a quick 15% jump before markets take a timeout.

The problem with closing the markets for 8 days, is that you lose 8 days of information from price discovery.

That's 8 days of no information that people would have to use to place their bets on Tuesday. My guess is that a whole bunch of market participants will place their bets by exiting the market entirely.

I'm sure there are more problems than I can articulate right here.


Or maybe you meant that sarcastically?

 

[Thekiwi]

San Francisco announces a lockdown

“San Francisco Mayor London Breed said, “Effective at midnight, San Francisco will require people to stay home except for essential needs. Necessary government functions & essential stores will remain open.” Breed is expected to announce a “shelter-in-place” order for the next three weeks at a press conference later Monday, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.“

so Fremont is closed?

also Trump just said people shouldn’t be in groups larger than ten.

 

[adiggs]

It's at these levels where risk of not being able to buy back what you had is high if you sell today, nobody can say definitively if it will drop further. In contrast, being able to buy below 900 had a decent chance, though without NCOV I'm not sure you'd have seen it. I feel worse with FOMO being out of a company I love than in and down a few bucks, but that's me (and maybe not conducive to highest % appreciation but sanity is worth something too)

Edit, and if it drops another 100 points but you wait for 150 and it rockets back up 200, well... that's a loss too. Not only does it have to drop, but you have to time your entry correct. Then there's taxes if applicable.

The idea finally dawned on my today (in a conversation with somebody else - was really his idea) - I don't know where the bottom is on TSLA, but I can pick a price I would happily take shares at (let's say $200), and start selling puts at that level. It's a combo dividend play plus remote opportunity of acquiring shares at a price I would love to get them at.

Hopefully there are enough buyers of said puts

 

[avoigt]

Amazing, Tesla starts delivery of Model Y like there is no tomorrow.

Awesome.

Game changer
Tesla on Twitter

 

[Fobble]

I don't know, I am really regretting not selling some when it was at 900-800. I have 104 shares at a price of 270.
With everything going as it is, wouldn't you think a price of 350 is in the cards short term? Holy crap, I could have almost doubled my position had I seen this coming.
Do I hold or sell some and buy back in if it gets lower? Its getting hard to lose 10 grand every day.

I just don't understand such questions have been being asked again and again. What do you expect the answer from a forum like this? It's most likely half and half (keep/sell). Also, this is your money. Why put on other ppl's decision? Read/watch/use your own intelligent/common sense, and make the right call for your own good. An advice.

 

[Remster32]

The Fremont factory will be forced to close for at least the next three weeks. Six counties in the Bay Area will be shut down, including Alameda County (where Fremont is located in). From the article: "Everyone is to work from home, or stop working, unless they provide an essential service, which includes health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers, and sanitation workers."

Officials will be announcing the Public Health order at 1pm PDT.

Details here: https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-p...rea-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php?2

Live stream:

 

[adiggs]

I don't know, I am really regretting not selling some when it was at 900-800. I have 104 shares at a price of 270.
With everything going as it is, wouldn't you think a price of 350 is in the cards short term? Holy crap, I could have almost doubled my position had I seen this coming.
Do I hold or sell some and buy back in if it gets lower? Its getting hard to lose 10 grand every day.

The thing about these kinds of regrets - was there something you knew, consciously, when the share price was in the 800/900's that you would have used to sell, but for some other reason decided not to?

If so, is there something you can learn from that experience, to help you in the future?


You're at today where you're at. I could have bought Apple decades ago - I was alive then and had money. But there was never a time in my life where I thought "they've got amazing stuff - I should buy". Many people refer to their iPhone moment - I never had that (I adopted a cell phone late, and reluctantly ).

I did have a Model S moment though in 2012. Which led directly to my first acquisition of TSLA shares.

And from a previous investment experience, I learned that when I have a conviction about an investment, then go into it with enough money to make a difference (learned from a conviction investment that worked at least as well as I expected, and which I only dabbled in and did not make a difference in my family's overall financial situation).

This experience helped me when I had my TSLA moment - we put in as much as we were willing to put into something at that time in our life.


So what specifically do you regret about not selling in the 800/900s? That you missed what turns out in retrospect to have been a nice spike / top? And if there is something you knew then and can learn from, if you're willing to share that here in the forum, then the rest of us may be able to exercise our wisdom (learning from other's experience)!

 

[Heimdallr]

Second buy order triggered, 210 shares at $450 after last week's 210 at $550 :'( I have no idea how low this will go so I don't know how cheap I get to buy what will likely become one of the most dominant companies ever.

 

[wipster]

So does delivery of a Model Y (or any Tesla for that matter) count as essential travel or services? Hope so...

 

[Fact Checking]

The idea finally dawned on my today (in a conversation with somebody else - was really his idea) - I don't know where the bottom is on TSLA, but I can pick a price I would happily take shares at (let's say $200), and start selling puts at that level. It's a combo dividend play plus remote opportunity of acquiring shares at a price I would love to get them at.

Hopefully there are enough buyers of said puts

In fact you can sell puts at:

desired_price + put_premium​

For example if $350 is a good price to you, you can sell $450 puts and get about $100 premium per share.

If you get assigned you get the shares at $450-$100 = $350 effective price, because you keep the premium. If you don't get assigned you have up to 22% return on the cash backing.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Heather Knight on Twitter

Includes Alameda County (aka Fremont).

BREAKING NEWS: Six Bay Area counties including San Francisco to mandate "shelter in place" at midnight, shuttering all non-essential workers. Grocery stores, banks, hospitals to remain open. Restaurants take-out only. Updates at http://sfchronicle.com.

All public gatherings of any kind outside a living unit are strictly forbidden. All non-essential travel including car and public transit forbidden. Routine medical appointments must be cancelled. Outdoor activity like hiking, walking, running is still OK with social distancing.

...

The directive begins at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday and involves San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda counties — a combined population of more than 6.7 million. It is to stay in place until at least April 7. Three other Bay Area counties — Sonoma, Solano and Napa — were not immediately included.

EDIT: I just took some losses and closed out some calls on this news. This could easily be extended.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The problem with closing the markets for 8 days, is that you lose 8 days of information from price discovery.

That's 8 days of no information that people would have to use to place their bets on Tuesday. My guess is that a whole bunch of market participants will place their bets by exiting the market entirely.

I'm sure there are more problems than I can articulate right here.


Or maybe you meant that sarcastically?

No, definitely meant it sincerely. 8 days is way too long as you point out. The uncertainty would overpower fear of missing an upswing.

My point was, it's easier for traders to push this thing down so that's what they're doing. Force institutional investors to make a call on the spot and I think this buying opportunity is taken on the spot.

Maybe close for Wed-Fri would have this effect?

 

[Vines]

I just don't understand such questions have been being asked again and again. What do you expect the answer from a forum like this? It's most likely half and half (keep/sell). Also, this is your money. Why put on other ppl's decision? Read/watch/use your own intelligent/common sense, and make the right call for your own good. An advice.

Its often a rhetorical question, one I thought to myself myself but saw the folly of that. Lots here probably did the same. Its totally possible to see 300 again, maybe even 200 before this is over. The market is not rational right now, so don't rationalize it.

I ended up selling right about my buy price, because with the uncertainty I don't have any other large amount of cash on hand, and might need it soon. So in my case its buy low, see high and try to hold, sell low...lol