Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Opus BC fan]

Today's price action is a nice sign of things to come.
I always click on the 6-month view to maintain perspective.

OT process comment: We are a group of Tesla supporters that have found a place to meet here. We all come and go as we please.

 

[StealthP3D]

What about others? Any speculation on future price near term?

The future price? I'm pretty excited about this actually. I've discovered a formula to calculate the future price that actually works. I've back-tested the formula on TSLA for the last 3 years and it works accurately and consistently. I'm giving this proprietary formula away free of charge:

fp = future price
pp = present price

fp = pp + (fp -pp)

It's amazing how accurate this is!

 

[junas]

I feel the need to chime in because things are really getting out of hand, and the only one profiting from it is the TSLAQ crowd (who are laughing their a** off about this voluntary mass suicide).

I think many people are completely overreacting to what has happened. Yes, maybe the mod in question overreacted, although it is not for me to make any judgment. If he did, it was likely out of frustation about the fact that so many people have been ignoring mod requests for months (I myself have given up out of the same frustration). But Karenrei imho is also overreacting by going away, and staying away. I've seen the discussion and it could have been worked out. And Factchecking went away out of solidarity, but I do not understand why he is persisting. What do they expect to accomplish? They are only hurting themselves and this community.

And now everyone here starts cancelling their subscriptions. What on earth will that accomplish?!? It only hurts the owners of this site, who are not moderators. And it will surely not change the situation. You will only hurt the TMC owners, this community and yourself. It's mass hysteria, with only one winner: TSLAQ. Everyone needs to come to your senses.

I put my two cents here since I've been a moderator in another very busy forum:

I doesn't usually serve the purpose of any discussion forum to apply censorship except when posts are insulting. Not everybody finds the same posts irrelevant. People can think themselves and skip things they find irrelevant. That's how it works in most other forums and people are still reading them. Of course, it makes sense to moderate Spiegel -level stuff when that happens.

Recently one of our Asian members got his post deleted because of "off-topic" story about seriousness of COVID-19. That was some time before COVID-19 hit the fan in Europe. It was probably the most important post of the year from investment perspective, but we missed that because of moderation. Not optimal.

I also remember that after 420 tweet someone was banned here because of "trolling" that TSLA will go back to $300 soonish. How that played out?

If there are too many so called off-topic posts people automatically start using topic-specific threads for more serious discussion. It just takes some weeks to happen. At least that's how it went in the forum I've been moderating. It also saves time&efforts if posts are only moderated when insulting. Hard to understand why this one should be any different. I very much understand some people leaving even it's a shame from Tesla investor perspective.

 

[dl003]

The mods have an important job here which is to keep this thread from becoming a zoo. Moving stuff to their righteous place is a part of that mission. However, how best to determine where the righteous place is, is the question. I think, as a Tesla investor forum, we must embrace First Principle. What do we want? A high quality thread. How do we achieve it? Many steps to take, removing posts is one. BUT, removing posts in itself is not what we want. I think stuff like this would not happen if we go the long way instead of sticking to rigid rules. Instead of asking "Is this about Tesla?" "Is this about Coronavirus?" "Is this about politics?", we should ask "Is this beneficial to the readers and a net benefit to the thread where it's posted in?"
Most of the times rules save us time and energy to focus on the important stuff. It's a shame that sometimes we use them to address the important stuff, as well.

 

[dhrivnak]

What about others? Any speculation on future price near term?

Since I purchased a few additional shares twice in the past week my prediction and hope is that Tesla stock will be going up.

 

[Cupidchild]

TSLA already back up close 500. That was quick. lol

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Nobody is gonna mention that the stock is up 10%?

The stock is up 10 percent.

 

[Tim S]

EP.0 on Podcast only.
In terms of price who knows, but 350.51 I believe was the lowest print on 3/18. Given that fact and now so many people who missed is looking for that 350 buy again, the chances is low that it will get to that exact #. well if market tanks... than even 280 is possible in the current environment. There is Green stimulus package, all the buyers will probably looking for 350 again..
I say two scenarios.. price comes back close to 350 but not at 350... so say like 377.... or it will just break 350 support and tanks down lower and possibly break 300 or low 300s.

What about others? Any speculation on future price near term?

350??? 280??? My speculation is the SP will be over 500 today

 

[Mo City]

It's at 502 now. Can someone talk me out of selling? In my opinion, no way it closes this high today.

What's the rationale for this big of a surge?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

TSLA is basically copying Ford and GM. This upwards move has nothing to do with tesla specifically. Thats good news, as I expect once people see Q1 production, and Q1 financials + battery day + solar roof figures, we can go up another 15% at least.

 

[Opus BC fan]

It's at 502 now. Can someone talk me out of selling? In my opinion, no way it closes this high today.

What's the rationale for this big of a surge?

How many other companies are better positioned to weather this storm?

 

[FrankSG]

Yeah, IV is pretty absurd atm.

I'm considering selling some of my Jun'21 $900s, because my confidence level in them has dropped since this crisis started, and they are trading way higher than they should be right now. I bought them for $20 in January when SP was ~$490, and now with SP at $430, they're trading at $52

That just makes no sense at all.

Ok, so when SP was $460, these Jun'21 $900s were trading for $62.

SP has risen about 10% to $510, and the options have dropped ~10% in value to $55.

Option IVs and values make no sense right now.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I wonder if we're going to go back over 100B market cap today. And if we do poke at it, are we going to stay there?

 

[Mo City]

How many other companies are better positioned to weather this storm?

I know the answer, but this is a rollercoaster, not a straight line ride.

I'm not a trader, but it's almost irresistible now. No way it closes at 500 today.

 

[Tim S]

Ok, so when SP was $460, these Jun'21 $900s were trading for $62.

SP has risen about 10% to $510, and the options have dropped ~10% in value to $55.

Option IVs and values make no sense right now.

Yeah, I have 3 different way OTM Jan 21 calls that are down today according to ETrade, with the SP up 15%

Fortunately most of my holdings are TSLA stock

 

[dl003]

I know the answer, but this is a rollercoaster, not a straight line ride.

I'm not a trader, but it's almost irresistible now. No way it closes at 500 today.

So here's the thing: are you more ok with hoping for the price to go up or hoping for it to go down?
If you sell, it's not over. You have to hold out for it to go down. You'll not be at peace.
I'm not talking you out of selling. Do whatever you're more ok with. I know that for me, my cost basis is fine now. My margin is good. I sold before and I was just as anxious as I am now and to me TSLA is the future.

 

[Fobble]

I'm not a trader, but it's almost irresistible now. No way it closes at 500 today.

You made good speculating calls in the past. I'll will check against this one at close today

 

[lascavarian]

Yeah, I have 3 different way OTM Jan 21 calls that are down today according to ETrade, with the SP up 15%

Yes, I noticed that eTrade has weird options valuations. Seeing same thing that 21 calls are showing down.

 

[EVMeister]

So here's the thing: are you more ok with hoping for the price to go up or hoping for it to go down?
If you sell, it's not over. You have to hold out for it to go down. You'll not be at peace.
I'm not talking you out of selling. Do whatever you're more ok with. I know that for me, my cost basis is fine now. My margin is good. I sold before and I was just as anxious as I am now and to me TSLA is the future.

Too right. I've sold shares before thinking I'd be able to wait until there's a big drop and I can buy them back at a discount. What actually ends up happening is I feel very anxious and continually on-edge about what the stock price is doing. Wondering how low it can go. Then buying them back having made only a small profit - one that's arguably not worth the stress.

But hey, everyone is different.

 

[FrankSG]

Looks like this week there are:

~6k $480 Call Option contracts expiring
~6k $490 Call Option contracts expiring
~7k $500 Call Option contracts expiring

This may explain some of the current resistance at $500