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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
There’s a lot more bad (not Tesla related) news to come. In Spain, the military has begun disinfection of nursing homes, and they find dead elderly people just being left behind by their caretakers. News like will create panic and despair in the financial markets. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that extreme in the USA, but I see multiple tens of percent downside.
Mo City
Active Member
On Thursday, I went close to all-in on TSLA. Today, my IRA is nearing all-time highs and I'm getting nervous. TSLA almost always falls big after irrational jumps like this.
One of the few times my fear > FOMO.
Again, the ex- or semi-mod in the advantaged time zone pretty much said what I would have said. Thanks!
#2 done ages ago.
As tragic and sad that is what you report you ought to ask yourself what the correlation to Tesla as an investment is or will be even if that same would happen in the USA.
Panic could be one reaction but we also so FOMO which are 2 extremes. In the long term extremes don't matter.
Germany has taken some critical ill from France, Spain and Italy as we are luckily as of now have much more beds available knowing a wave is still to come if measures don't work. ICU beds are still ramping and we are now at 40k targeting 56k which is a 100% increase.
As of now the last days give us some positive signals in some EU markets so there is some hope.
If you deduct the US which is growing quickly as we all know, Europe is flat with new cases. If that remains its only a question of time until active cases decrease.
Market panic may still happen in the US but as stated before there is a point in time where bad news do not affect the stock market as they did in the past. A lot is priced in. Not advice as volatility will remain high.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's a very good point about the money sitting on the sidelines. The stocks leading the charge out of this bloodbath will benefit the most. I happen to think TSLA will be one of the best amongst this select group. That said, I can't discount the possibility that this bloodbath has one more major down leg left. I'm hoping it doesn't because that will cause me to take an unnaturally large long position in TSLA shares and calls. But it would probably end up being a big positive for my future net worth. Oddly, I don't want that to happen even though it seems likely to me.
Agreed. My comment to you yesterday about the IV remaining high and waiting for a run up in price was 100% incorrect. The premiums seem to have imploded since yesterday.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Trump now looking to "make a deal" with Saudi Arabia to stabilize oil markets.
So in other words.....Trump is working with the country from which nearly all the 9/11 attackers originated to rig the open market so consumers pay more for most physical goods.
In other words.... Socialism in concert with terrorists. #neverforget
So in other words.....Trump is working with the country from which nearly all the 9/11 attackers originated to rig the open market so consumers pay more for most physical goods.
In other words.... Socialism in concert with terrorists. #neverforget
The future price? I'm pretty excited about this actually. I've discovered a formula to calculate the future price that actually works. I've back-tested the formula on TSLA for the last 3 years and it works accurately and consistently. I'm giving this proprietary formula away free of charge:
fp = future price
pp = present price
fp = pp + (fp -pp)
It's amazing how accurate this is!
62 years ago at MIT another version was called "Murphy's law of analysis: the right answer divided by the wrong answer multiplied by the wrong answer gives you the right answer."
If you were comfortable buying in at X price, and it goes to X + Y, then should you really be afraid of it dropping to X again? You could always peel off some shares to bring your position value back down to the X level if you are really stressing, but obviously that risks missing out on X + Y + Z.
As much as I hate them, the deal should be literally this. "Bring oil back up to the level where at least some of our domestic producers will be solved or you can handle all future defense yourself. "
He won't do that though because that won't make him any money.
It's not that simple. They would need to know who has them, and establish a credit line with that company. Then they would have to deal with Customs. Tesla already has this stuff in place. And this assumes that hospital personnel knows how to deal with international purchases. How many hospitals do you think that would be? 1%? Less?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Karen, I know it's not Valentine's Day but we love you. Please come back and bring FC with you!
I'd also add that hospital resources are probably already overloaded, and don't have the same contacts in China or wherever. I keep reminding people also, a donation is still a donation. I donated some extra food, toilet paper, clorox wipes etc. yesterday that I purchased back in December. According to the Tesla haters I'm a jerk because of that.
So the question remains what will be the impact of the Q1 deliveries report.
I think we can all agree it is extremely hard to tell what Tesla will report. Prior to this madness, I was expecting that we will beat market expectations with ~115k production and ~100-105 deliveries maybe. Lately, mainly based on @Troy`s projections I have downgraded my expectations to 90-99k... but even so, with the latest quarantine measures around the world and the Fremont shutdown I would not be surprised if we only hit the high 80s. We were at ~80k produced about 2 weeks ago at the 1 million announcement, so normally production would just have surpassed 100k, but deliveries are harder to predict.
Having said that, what I am really torn about is whether this will even matter at all? Tesla may report 95k deliveries. No wait, let`s go crazy: 105k. Who cares? I think what everyone will be focusing on is any Q2 guidance... and that won`t be pretty.
It is uncertain how long before Fremont can open again. Reading our US posters I feel like in mentality they are 2-3 weeks behind us Europeans. I agree with @NicoV, that you can observer this shift in mindset as things become more serious. It`s all just a media report, a bit over hyped maybe you may think, then things start getting out of hand pretty close to home and you radically start to see things in a different light.
I don`t feel like Wall Street, or even our American TMC posters here are there yet. So I am concerned as well, if things deteriorate over the next week or so, how TSLA and the markets may react.
@avoigt this is one of those rare occasions where we disagree. I would love for you to be right, but I would wait until I see several days of sustained decline of new cases before I accept it is more than just variation in the data.
I think we can all agree it is extremely hard to tell what Tesla will report. Prior to this madness, I was expecting that we will beat market expectations with ~115k production and ~100-105 deliveries maybe. Lately, mainly based on @Troy`s projections I have downgraded my expectations to 90-99k... but even so, with the latest quarantine measures around the world and the Fremont shutdown I would not be surprised if we only hit the high 80s. We were at ~80k produced about 2 weeks ago at the 1 million announcement, so normally production would just have surpassed 100k, but deliveries are harder to predict.
Having said that, what I am really torn about is whether this will even matter at all? Tesla may report 95k deliveries. No wait, let`s go crazy: 105k. Who cares? I think what everyone will be focusing on is any Q2 guidance... and that won`t be pretty.
It is uncertain how long before Fremont can open again. Reading our US posters I feel like in mentality they are 2-3 weeks behind us Europeans. I agree with @NicoV, that you can observer this shift in mindset as things become more serious. It`s all just a media report, a bit over hyped maybe you may think, then things start getting out of hand pretty close to home and you radically start to see things in a different light.
I don`t feel like Wall Street, or even our American TMC posters here are there yet. So I am concerned as well, if things deteriorate over the next week or so, how TSLA and the markets may react.
@avoigt this is one of those rare occasions where we disagree. I would love for you to be right, but I would wait until I see several days of sustained decline of new cases before I accept it is more than just variation in the data.
Mo City
Active Member
International air freight logistics is my wheelhouse. The average person has no idea how complicated it is
Tesla has very strong relationships with forwarders who can get things done.
If you want to sell, why don't you just sell a covered call?
Cirrus MS100D
Member
I fear Thursday's US unemployment report is going to be scary bad and no matter what stimulus deal is (or isn't) reached and positive sentiment gained by that point will be wiped out with the reminder that the economic damage being done right now could take months to years to recover. (I'm fully aware this completely ignores the social damage also being done on those affected.) If the elevator goes to the -5th floor, it's going to take TSLA with it.
My local anecdata in our small town is a guy who owned a very successful and well-reviewed brewpub/restaurant plus coffee bar (that is now takeout only) announced last night they had to lay off 80 wait/host/dishwashing staff and issued a GoFundMe to throw some cash their way. We have barely 1 traffic light in our town and I would be shocked if this weren't happening similarly around the country.
I agree that Tesla is well-positioned at the higher end of the spectrum in terms of their target customers likely receiving steady/normal income while they work from home, but all of those "aspirational" folks who were "this" close to putting in an order for a SR Model 3 because things were going so well are going to be set back months to years financially.
One more personal anecdote: We were hoping to begin a major house renovation including a new Tesla Solar Roof + Powerwalls. While I don't even know where we'd be in the queue for the Solar Roof, everything is going to get backed up for months. A builder we had initially talked to in January was so originally slammed with work that he basically high-balled us a B.S. quote. Last night he texted me asking if he wanted to talk again given that he just had to lock down all his active job sites. Will we be able to get materials in 6-9 months? Will they be in short supply and see crazy price gouging? Will there be a glut of unemployed labor driving costs down? Will folks from individual homeowners to business owners clam up?
I'm a TSLA long since 2012 and have never sold a share and don't intend to as the longterm view is still very positive, but I don't see how we get through the summer in the USA without more heartache.
My local anecdata in our small town is a guy who owned a very successful and well-reviewed brewpub/restaurant plus coffee bar (that is now takeout only) announced last night they had to lay off 80 wait/host/dishwashing staff and issued a GoFundMe to throw some cash their way. We have barely 1 traffic light in our town and I would be shocked if this weren't happening similarly around the country.
I agree that Tesla is well-positioned at the higher end of the spectrum in terms of their target customers likely receiving steady/normal income while they work from home, but all of those "aspirational" folks who were "this" close to putting in an order for a SR Model 3 because things were going so well are going to be set back months to years financially.
One more personal anecdote: We were hoping to begin a major house renovation including a new Tesla Solar Roof + Powerwalls. While I don't even know where we'd be in the queue for the Solar Roof, everything is going to get backed up for months. A builder we had initially talked to in January was so originally slammed with work that he basically high-balled us a B.S. quote. Last night he texted me asking if he wanted to talk again given that he just had to lock down all his active job sites. Will we be able to get materials in 6-9 months? Will they be in short supply and see crazy price gouging? Will there be a glut of unemployed labor driving costs down? Will folks from individual homeowners to business owners clam up?
I'm a TSLA long since 2012 and have never sold a share and don't intend to as the longterm view is still very positive, but I don't see how we get through the summer in the USA without more heartache.
Not sure about Q1 earning, as the lockdown in Europe and US started almost at the end of the quarter. However, I have a strong feeling that the virus things will impact Q2 earning pretty bad. It depends on how the wording and forward looking statements from Tesla, it is not necessarily going to be a sell-off though.
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