Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

All good things come to an end ... TMC has been a misnomer for quite some time already.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have to say I’m pretty disappointed in Mods handling the CV thread as well as @Factchecking. So much disappointed that I’ve tried reaching out to TMC to have my membership here deleted forever. Right now, I really don’t feel like coming back here (and there’s a reason for me posting this, I’ll get to it later).

Three of my emails asking for the membership cancellation were sent without any result the past several weeks. So I’m throwing both my hands in the air and giving up at this point. Here’s my take on the CV thread, most people over there won’t accept any form of your suggestions about the 20 vaccine that some the brightest people are working on will work or get fast tracked, despite the medical AI systems predicting the most likely 8 different outcomes to the vaccine. The Chinese found 5 most likely outcome and are testing it like mad scientists. Despite a Chinese official already stating that he’s willing to fast track the vaccine if neccessary, the CV thread won’t accept it.

To sum it up, what the CV thread people are interested in are a few of things: 1) no possibility of any vaccine to save humanity because they said so.. 2) because they said so, we should be warned to sell Tesla stock. 3) the world will end 4) when the world ends, that’s when it’ll be the right time for them to buy stocks.

I’m done dealing with Mods over there. So here I am, posting my CV stuff here. Maybe this will get me banned for life. Would someone please delete my profile for good? There!

btw, I still own Tesla, and have dry powder since locking in some at $830s. Will be buying more BEFORE the world ends.

Even without a vaccine there is a lot that can be done, I will not run though the list here but i posted some suggestions in the CV thread.

It is important to be objective, and that means not overly positive or negative, but weighing the evidence and considering both sides of the argument.

Again I'm not down playing CV it is very serious, but as per my post above, humans will work on cures, vaccines, PPE, tests and anything else we need.

If the world is so bad that Tesla is a bad investment, IMO most other asset classes are equally worthless, perhaps even cash.
But it will never come to that, because the collective intelligence of mankind is smart enough to solve the problem.

In the meantime the US does need to work on handling the problem as best you can with the current toolkit.

 

[davepsilon]

I have to say I’m pretty disappointed in Mods handling the CV thread as well as @Factchecking. So much disappointment that I’ve tried reaching out to TMC to have my membership here deleted forever. Right now, I really don’t feel like coming back here (and there’s a reason for me posting this, I’ll get to it later).

Three of my emails asking for the membership cancellation were sent without any result the past several weeks. So I’m throwing both my hands in the air and giving up at this point. Here’s my take on the CV thread, most people over there won’t accept any form of your suggestions about the 20 vaccine that some the of brightest people are working on will work or get fast tracked, despite the medical AI systems predicting the most likely 8 different outcomes to the vaccine. The Chinese found 5 most likely outcome and are testing it like mad scientists. Despite a Chinese official already stating that he’s willing to fast track the vaccine if neccessary, the CV thread won’t accept it.

To sum it up, what the CV thread people are interested in are a few of things: 1) no possibility of any vaccine to save humanity because they said so.. 2) because they said so, we should be warned to sell Tesla stock. 3) the world will end 4) when the world ends, that’s when it’ll be the right time for them to buy stocks.

I’m done dealing with Mods over there. So here I am, posting my CV stuff here. Maybe this will get me banned for life. Would someone please delete my profile for good? There!

btw, I still own Tesla, and have dry powder since locking in some at $830s. Will be buying more BEFORE the world ends.

PS: tips to shorters, become a Mod and the quality of information here will decline dramatically.

Heh, but you didn’t buy yet with your ‘dry powder’. So your short term thesis can’t be that different from those CV thread people.

 

[2Pearls]

Pretty much all the auto factories in China are up and running.

Most of the global OEMs have insight into Chinese best practices regarding COVID-19.

BTW Anybody seen car commercials on tv? Lincoln running ads about non-contact sales experience.

Local Mercedes and Ford dealer in Los Angeles running ads you can conduct entire car purchase via phone/internet and have car delivered without ever seeing an employee in person.

And, almost all of these car ads on the East Coast are offering 0% interest and/or 3 month delayed payments and some car manufacturers are offering that they will pay the first 3 months. These next 3-6 months in our economy will not be good,

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I communicated directly with Karen. She says she’s not coming back and I have no reason to doubt her. Very unfortunate.

What a loss for the TMC Forums; she was a tremendous asset. The mods should be ashamed of themselves for driving away some of our most knowledgeable and informative posters.

Does she perhaps blog somewhere where we might follow her?

 

[Lessmog]

What a loss for the TMC Forums; she was a tremendous asset. The mods should be ashamed of themselves for driving away some of our most knowledgeable and informative posters.

Does she perhaps blog somewhere where we might follow her?

You could check the CV thread: Coronavirus

 

[davepsilon]

What a loss for the TMC Forums; she was a tremendous asset. The mods should be ashamed of themselves for driving away some of our most knowledgeable and informative posters.

Does she perhaps blog somewhere where we might follow her?

Mods have a thankless job and I’d argue more important job than any one poster. No I’m not a mod. But no one person ever bats 100%. True for mods and posters. It is often said if you can’t take the heat stay out of the kitchen which it sounds like is the ultimate outcome for now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"(Mar 26) 3A project foundation part is completed, steel structure begins to build" | Jason Yang (12 min ago)

 

[Harrito]

What a loss for the TMC Forums; she was a tremendous asset. The mods should be ashamed of themselves for driving away some of our most knowledgeable and informative posters.

Does she perhaps blog somewhere where we might follow her?

There is a Discord channel called Tesla Open Investors Club (link: Join the Tesla Open Investors Club Discord Server! ) where Karenrei, among others, have joined, welcome

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

I agree with the overall focus of your post, and pretty much everything except this bullet. Do you have a source, or other reason why you think Tesla has the best internal software systems in the world?

My personal impression, as a customer since 2013, is that Tesla has some of the worst internal software systems in the world. As a data management professional, it seems to me that Tesla doesn't know what a data model (3rd normal form), good database design - it's as if they've only hired software engineers and no data management people. It's manifested in such simple problems as service being unable to update my address (back in 2013) because that was the sales system, and it kept pushing the previous owner's address into the default page that service would get.

Marketing db that couldn't keep track of whether to send me invites to launch events (not sure I'd have gone, but as a signature Model X reservation holder, there were a couple of events over the years I'd have at least liked to get an invite).

I can't remember the recent issue somebody else ran into, but I commented along these lines, and let him know that at least he could be comforted by the idea that their basic db design problems change over the years.

They might not be easily the worst, but for a company of Tesla's scale, I've been left feeling like it's amateur hour on this front over the years.

To expand on this, NOW is a great time to spend the effort on improving these systems while the devs are forced to WFH and production is shut down. Tesla is going to need to be surgically accurate and close every sales opportunity in the short term.

We’ve been trying to get a yes/no on our solar roof in PA, with the concern that our roof design is “too complicated.” We prepaid for Solar Roof long before it was called Solar Roof and have sent in support requests to just open a dialogue before going too far into the process (we’ve sent them architecture plans for their review) and it’s been radio silence.

We have a metal roof + thin film solar as a backup option, but Tesla literally has a sale to lose if they don’t respond to us. This shouldn’t STILL be happening!

 

[30seconds]

I agree with the overall focus of your post, and pretty much everything except this bullet. Do you have a source, or other reason why you think Tesla has the best internal software systems in the world?

My personal impression, as a customer since 2013, is that Tesla has some of the worst internal software systems in the world. As a data management professional, it seems to me that Tesla doesn't know what a data model (3rd normal form), good database design - it's as if they've only hired software engineers and no data management people. It's manifested in such simple problems as service being unable to update my address (back in 2013) because that was the sales system, and it kept pushing the previous owner's address into the default page that service would get.

Marketing db that couldn't keep track of whether to send me invites to launch events (not sure I'd have gone, but as a signature Model X reservation holder, there were a couple of events over the years I'd have at least liked to get an invite).

I can't remember the recent issue somebody else ran into, but I commented along these lines, and let him know that at least he could be comforted by the idea that their basic db design problems change over the years.

They might not be easily the worst, but for a company of Tesla's scale, I've been left feeling like it's amateur hour on this front over the years.

Good points - I was thinking about their production management.

 

[Sanny]

The 6+ trillion dollars question: how long it will take the economy to reopen?
For me personally it is completely different preparation scenarios:
1) 1-2-3 months
Preserve some cash, keep on stocks.
2) 6 months. Forget stocks, go for all cash. Change everyday behaviors.
3) 12 months+ Forget cash, go for guns and ammo, full zombie-movie scenario.

I personally prepare for scenario 1 just because I lack imagination for scenarios 2 and 3, but very interested in opinions (fact based if such thing still exists).

Also, to give some time perspective:
I'm looking into details on small business loans from the Covid bill. The total amount in hundreds of billions is covered pretty much everywhere in the media.
But if you dig deeper you see that the loans are designed to cover 2.5 months of payroll.
So I assume the whole stimulus package is built around the same timeframe. Not sure anyone is prepared for a longer lockdown on the government side either.

 

[bhtooefr]

There is a Discord channel called Tesla Open Investors Club (link: Join the Tesla Open Investors Club Discord Server! ) where Karenrei, among others, have joined, welcome

So I have my qualms about Discord (but don't have any better suggestions), but this may actually be the relief valve that this subforum needs.

People have referred to this thread as a "chat thread", and treating it as such contributes to unsustainable volume... but an actual chat is more ephemeral in usage (even if there's full scrollback history, as Discord provides).

IME, you end up with somewhat different communities in the chat (whether IRC or Discord) than you get on the forum, but there's overlap, and important info can filter from one to the other. With enough overlap, you can discuss up-to-the-minute things in a chat, and then the important things filter to the forum.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I agree with the overall focus of your post, and pretty much everything except this bullet. Do you have a source, or other reason why you think Tesla has the best internal software systems in the world?

My personal impression, as a customer since 2013, is that Tesla has some of the worst internal software systems in the world. As a data management professional, it seems to me that Tesla doesn't know what a data model (3rd normal form), good database design - it's as if they've only hired software engineers and no data management people. It's manifested in such simple problems as service being unable to update my address (back in 2013) because that was the sales system, and it kept pushing the previous owner's address into the default page that service would get.

Marketing db that couldn't keep track of whether to send me invites to launch events (not sure I'd have gone, but as a signature Model X reservation holder, there were a couple of events over the years I'd have at least liked to get an invite).

I can't remember the recent issue somebody else ran into, but I commented along these lines, and let him know that at least he could be comforted by the idea that their basic db design problems change over the years.

They might not be easily the worst, but for a company of Tesla's scale, I've been left feeling like it's amateur hour on this front over the years.

I think that was me, with my solar order email issue(s) . They do need some serious devops work. And a good ticket system.

 

[Christine69420]

Drone footage from around GF4 shot March 26-27, 2020 by Youtube user Giga Berlin.

 

[adiggs]

Good points - I was thinking about their production management.

This I can agree with. And the externally facing software product (car UI, driver assist, etc..).

Internal run-the-company software - as best I can tell, Tesla has a pretty serious Not Invented Here Syndrome (I'm guessing, based on my interpretation of what I've experienced mostly, plus what I've seen described by others); Tesla takes vertical integration on the product side to it's internal IT systems and writes their own. Which is fine if you're good at it

 

[dl003]

Many have posted solid reasons to think that diagnosed case data could be less accurate than death rates, but it turns out the two appear to be tracking each other quite closely so far.

And as a quick follow-up on my last post, this chart suggests population density does not affect the death rate per case.

Source: datagraver on Twitter.

Sorry, that's an atrocious graph. It's a joke really. Look at the x and y axis scale.

 

[EinSV]

Sorry, that's an atrocious graph. It's a joke really. Look at the x and y axis scale.

It's a log graph, which is totally appropriate.

But I realized I accidentally posted this in the wrong thread.

Will delete and repost in the coronavirus thread.

 

[dl003]

It's a log graph, which is totally appropriate.

But I realized I accidentally posted this in the wrong thread.

Will delete and repost in the coronavirus thread.

My point is if you reduce the distance between each point and the mean enough by messing with the scale, eventually everything will look like they're on a straight line. How else are they gonna make 1.6% (SK) to appear more or less in line with 11% (IT)?

 

[SMAlset]

Back to financial, Bloomberg reports that Peg Broadbent, CFO at Jeffries Financial Group since 2007, died of CV at age 56. He was previously at Morgan Stanley for 16 years. Bloomberg stated that this was the first reported death from CV among senior Wall Street executives. Leaves behind wife and five children.