We're talking about Elon and Tesla here, not just some little namby pamby car company like GM or Ford.
I can see several rabbits Elon can pull out of his hat:
I'm waiting for somebody to say that "it is impossible". Then Elon will do it. And that would be a good thing.
- Elon could convince the local decision makers that Tesla has a mandate from the federal government to go back to work.
- Elon could convince the locals that Tesla could do it safely. [Good example to follow is GF Shanghai.]
- Move a bunch of trailers onsite. Somehow have meals catered, provide entertainment... so that at least some employees (+maybe their families) can "shelter in place" at the factory at night while they work during the day. [Acknowledged: Supply chain issues.]
[Edit: Add GF Shanghai example.]
Germany is a good example in that respect.
We have a nation wide stay at home regulations but production is ongoing. Just talked yesterday with a friend of mine who is heading a production side for plastic components and they continue production as many others too.
German new infection cases are dropping since days with the largest drop so far yesterday. I expect this to continue since the measured taken are showing the effect this week.
IOW, I am convinced you can maintain a production with the right measures in place.
A 2 week downtime is actually not unusual for an automotive production and if Elon believes it get tight and the situation allows it I would not be surprised them to restart production.
The 500k annual target has been in my opinion an underestimate - overdeliver strategy which may allow them even if 2H goes well to make that number. Imagine what will happen to the stock price.
Most negatives have been factored in the stocks already. We can see this for the positive futures this morning (eu time) now heading slightly in the negatives. A week ago or two if Trump would announces 100k deaths and expected 160k the market would have dropped 10% and more but today the picture is quite different.
Are more negative news to come? of course and without a doubt but that does not mean the stocks will fall.
Are positive news to come? I do see much more opportunity for good news to have an effect of rising prices. Example is Germany and even Italy where numbers are going down since days too.
There is a time in any crisis where even negative perceived news lead to buy orders because people will say thats been it. Short term trades are still not my advice as the market will remain volatile.