Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Here's how:

1. Bollinger Bands - Wikipedia (upper bound for technical traders)
   
2. $650 also just happens to be the 50 day moving average (a target SP for TA)
   
3. Options Expiries Friday (there's 5.5K contracts open at the $600 Strike: Motivation)

P.S. The SP dropped from $969 to $704 in 4.0 hrs of trading on Feb 3/4. That's a $265 swing on literally ZERO News. So a $200 upswing on MAJOR news (when the SP has been beaten down) is not unreasonable.

P.P.S. You might find it helpful to surrender your need to 'understand' SP movements. There are too many hidden forces at work which are only revealed in hindsight, or never revealed at all since there is so much $$ at stake.

CHEERS!

With macro looking like crap tomorrow, if this really happens then I am going to hail to the gods of technical trading.

 

[MC3OZ]

It is hard to get a handle on how long a shut down is needed, 4-6 weeks seems to do the job in most locations if it is done well, backed by good polices, adequate testing and adequate PPE.
I'm not sure if the whole US needs to shutdown at the same time, if it is staggered then you need controls or recommendations to reduce domestic travel, and you need more testing..
On a case-by-case basis Fremont is a valuable asset for Tesla an a valuable part of the economy, it is worth Tesla spending money on testing, PPE, work place changes, and anything else needed just to reopen.
School is tricky because how much testing do we do, and who pays for it?
A lot of office workers can continue to work from home an retail//service businesses can pay for PPE and staff testing.
There are a lot of recreational/social activities that are desirable but not essential.
It seems likely that a business that wants to reopen has to convince authorities it can do that safely and meet any the cost of the required additional safety measures.

 

[Electroman]

Even the governor of New York understands a shut down for an extended period time is suicidal.

On the other hand a premature opening up of people movement would be literally suicidal. So you have to choose the lesser of the two evils.

 

[Singuy]

On the other hand a premature opening up of people movement would be literally suicidal. So you have to choose the lesser of the two evils.

With proper protocols in place, the chance of death is way less for an employee from Covid vs getting stabbed from home intrusion thanks to social unrest with hungry people on the streets.

The value of the dollar is backed by our GDP and our ability to pay debt. A lengthy economic shutdown can very easily turn this country into Venezuela. Beware of negative feedback loops that can potentially be a runaway freight train. Economic prosperity is national security issue no matter how many people thinks manufacturing is not essential. It's in the federal guidelines for a reason. Letting ignorant people dictates what is essential or not based on personal opinions can result in catastrophe.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Okay for those who thinks there will be a 3 additional months of shut down are insane. Preface, anything is possible. But a 3 months complete economic shut down will result in catastrophe and mass protest. Tesla can weather the storm, but everything around it cannot. There's not enough money in the world to keep these small businesses alive shutting them down. There's not enough money in the world to keep landlords from evicting people out onto the streets. And this is with a state that has obviously flatten the curve. Even the governor of New York understands a shut down for an extended period time is suicidal.

Yep, I agree. It won’t be long before people are burning down their businesses for the insurance money. Shadow economies will start up. Suicide rates will climb. No one is going to self-quarantine for 3 months.

Once the curves flatten, no warning about long tails or future recurrences will matter. The medical infrastructure will have to cope (or not).

 

[dww12]

I wonder why Autoline would have a guest on that knew so little about the auto industry? The two hosts had to correct Montana Skeptic multiple times on things about the industry he just had no clue on. By the end of the show his underlying hate for Tesla was coming through loud and clear and all three of the other guys could see it.

For example, when MS tried to claim that all the Fremont workers who were laid off due to Coronavirus shutdown would go out and find other jobs elsewhere, John McElroy had to correct him and by using his experience of the many layoffs in Michigan over the decades. The workers get unemployment as long as the shut-down lasts and then most of the same ones are hired back. Because they can't find comparable work at comparable wages. No one tthought to mention that it's pretty hard to find a job in the middle of a Coronavirus lockdown.

When MS tried to say Tesla was screwed because last year Tesla renegotiated higher volume/lower-cost contracts with their parts suppliers and now they couldn't meet the minimum volumes contracted, John McElroy had to correct him and said that's not how it works in the auto parts supplier business - suppliers don't sue manufacturer's acting in good faith because they would never get another supply contract again - they work it out when times are tough.

MS said a lot of things that simply weren't true but none of the other guys knew enough about Tesla to correct him. For example, at the end of the show one of the hosts got Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers hot off the presses. MS appeared befuddled by the number. At the beginning of the show, MS made the case that sales would be terrible this quarter without Coronavirus but with CV, sales would be even worse. He said if they managed to hit 85K that would be really good but still worse than their (record) Q4 sales. And he implied they couldn't even hit that. He was just throwing that out there as a result that would only be possible in an ideal situation. So, when it was announced they had beat his number he rhetorically asked how they thought the revenues would compare to Q1 2019, a quarter in which he claimed was the transition to all "high margin sales"?? As I recall, Q1 2019 was the transition to low margin sales, with the price cuts and the introduction of the standard range $35K model. But MS looked shaken up by the Q1 sales number that was revealed at the end of the show.

I found it odd that Lawrence Fossi maintained his alias, Montana Skeptic, for the show and never revealed his true identity. Every other Autoline show I've ever seen had multiple guests and they were all proud to use their real name. Very odd. I wonder what excuse he used when he told McElroy he wanted to use an alias!

I also wonder how his short position is working out, LOL!

Thank you for the synopsis! Normally I can stomach a lot, but 15 min in and I could not take it anymore.

 

[dww12]

Here's how:

1. Bollinger Bands - Wikipedia (upper bound for technical traders)
   
2. $650 also just happens to be the 50 day moving average (a target SP for TA)
   
3. Options Expiries Friday (there's 5.5K contracts open at the $600 Strike: Motivation)

P.S. The SP dropped from $969 to $704 in 4.0 hrs of trading on Feb 3/4. That's a $265 swing on literally ZERO News. So a $200 upswing on MAJOR news (when the SP has been beaten down) is not unreasonable.

P.P.S. You might find it helpful to surrender your need to 'understand' SP movements. There are too many hidden forces at work which are only revealed in hindsight, or never revealed at all since there is so much $$ at stake.

CHEERS!

I think I am buying protective puts tomorrow. I lucked out and bought some May 450 calls at the end of trading (mainly because of the Chanos dip). I had sold out of a lot of my shares two weeks ago because I thought I could trade around all of this volatility and ended up less long on shares on the jump back to the 500s than I needed to be. For the most part I should have stuck with HODL.

 

[StealthP3D]

P.P.S. You might find it helpful to surrender your need to 'understand' SP movements. There are too many hidden forces at work which are only revealed in hindsight, or never revealed at all since there is so much $$ at stake.

That was one of my first major learnings when I started investing in stocks (that share price movements are not always going to be predictable and it's bad for portfolio performance to think I know what they will do on any given day based on the news). Once I understood what I didn't know, investing became a lot easier and more profitable.

Short term price movements often do not obey the rules we rationally think they should based upon the news and the known facts and the sooner an investor embraces that, the better. That said, it will probably open up tomorrow.

 

[AlexTheSquid]

Am I the only one who is disappointed with first quarter results?

I am a little bit worried with this post of Vincent HyperChange on Twitter

He says that Tesla delivered only 3900 M3 in March. How can we talk about weekly production of 3k if the whole month of March only gave us 3.9k?

Because we can only rely on China in second quarter. Acid test: If Freemont is frozen for the 2Q will China give us only 3900*3?

Probably this is because China still rely on parts from USA.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This day would have been pretty good regardless, with Chanos.....it's sublime. He must be compensated in some way by fossil interests or maybe laabor unions.

There's no way a halfway intelligent person would choose to short literally the #1 brand in the world that attracts all the best talent and all the millennial retail investment. I flat out refuse to believe these are his sincere thoughts.

I think he's just butt hurt that Musk got the best of him with solar city and he'll continue to lament Tesla until his dying day.

 

[avoigt]

I don't think Gali has superficial understanding. He's a YouTube personality, so he tends to dramatize things for our entertainment

While I liked many of Galis videos because he has a sharp & clear mind, I realized that in the CoVid crisis where fear is around people I found very rational and clear minded before start with irrationality and unfounded statements. Having seen his video a few days ago I was about to dislike it as its been pure emotions and unfounded negativity. I believe he will return to a better approach though.

Maybe its because I went through that many heavy crisis and recession that I am kind of immune now but today more than ever, rationality is key. Maybe its just age and experience.

Its like fear takes over a part of the brain like a cancer and its been hard with many people who I found usually trustworthy and smart to discuss with. Fear makes people dump and thats not an offense to Gali or others where I see a similar pattern but just a reality. To make yourself aware of that emotion can help to reactivate rationality. It's actually intended that we stop thinking when we are in a fearful situation as action is key. Unfortunately thats at the stock market exactly the wrong approach and will make you quickly poor.

It may sound like a bold claim but the P&D numbers have been really obvious to me prior to release given the supply chain structure from Tesla and continued touchles deliveries. They filled now the inventory too which has been completely empty, execution worked quite well.

Having said that the negative numbers will appear in Q2 of course therefore every day they can go back to work counts. Tesla never had a demand issue but as they are 'forced' not to produce in Fremont that channel will drain. I am convinced China will surprise and do very well though for various reasons. I could imagine that Tesla will restart some works in Sparks and Fremont in about 2 weeks scaling up to the end of April which would limit the damage done but of course no one knows how the situation develops in the US.

In order to shed some more lights on my analysis looking forward my Video #3 will be about supply and demand.

Video #2 Diversification is online since yesterday evening and an article on CleanTechnica will follow this Saturday.

Because the market is still completely confused about what Tesla is and why thy did well in Q1 they won't do better in Q2 with their limited ability to comprehend therefore be prepared for volatility.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Even if a lot of businesses are affected by a long shutdown, car production is likely to re-start before many of them. There are many situations that are CATASTROPHIC for spreading a virus, which will likely be banned for quite a while. Think crowded nightclubs, music events, sports events and so on. Anywhere that involves a crowd of people in close proximity.
But people working on a car production line are likely no closer to each other than people manning the checkouts in a grocery store.

Sure, there might need to be requirements for everybody to wear a mask, and people may need to sit a few seats away from everybody else in the canteen, but my point is that car production *can safely continue* before you get to the point where everything is back to normal and people are squeezed together in sweaty environments like nightclubs and bars.

If any car factory is closed more than 30 days I will be surprised.

 

[aubreymcfato]

There’s little use comparing the various Tesla-related personalities. Everyone has a role to play, and anyone on the right side is alright in my book.

But I understand grumpy.

I like Gali, he's young and full of energy, but I stopped listening to him more than a year ago. I don't think he provides much meaningful insights in the company: he's a quick thinker and works well on television, but only if he has his numbers right.
Unfortunately even these TSLA uberbulls make the whole discourse about Tesla partisan and not really reasonable.
They do have some positive influence in fighting Twitter FUD tho.

 

[Krugerrand]

Has anyone looked into the impact of Fremont being “closed” for the majority (if not all) of Q2?

Nope. Not a single person over the last two months has discussed AT ALL Tesla’s financial position and ability to withstand current circumstances. Nor has anyone discussed the impact on Tesla vehicle *demand*, pricing strategies, OEM EV plans or any number of other related topics.



Hint: there are hundreds of pages of posts that came before this page. Start there.

 

[kaczmarczyk]

Okay for those who thinks there will be a 3 additional months of shut down are insane. Preface, anything is possible. But a 3 months complete economic shut down will result in catastrophe and mass protest. Tesla can weather the storm, but everything around it cannot. There's not enough money in the world to keep these small businesses alive shutting them down. There's not enough money in the world to keep landlords from evicting people out onto the streets. And this is with a state that has obviously flatten the curve. Even the governor of New York understands a shut down for an extended period time is suicidal.

Here in VA we are in a stay at home order until June 10th already

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I wonder if there will be any short covering today? Deeeeeeeelicious

 

[jerry33]

Listen, I'm a lucky idiot and certainly could be wrong. Not advice!

But yeah EST...most mornings there's that morning dip and most days the high is right before lunch. I've spent the past hour trying to figure out how to get historical price data at specific times of day into a Google spreadsheet so I can run a simulation over the past year or two. I'm open to any tips on how to get this done. I understand why it usually peaks around 11:45 but I don't understand the "mandatory morning dip". Anyone care to explain?

cron

 

[Krugerrand]

Someone has to watch the kids as well as assist in the education, therefore it may be also an impact on the parents ability to work at the factory.

I’ve seen this posted a few times now and I’m always dismayed at people’s lack of creativity or willingness to put their big boy pants on and do what needs to be done.

A neighborhood/community could in fact pool their resources (like adults that aren’t working because they were stay at home parents in the first place or haven’t returned to work just yet) and help each other by caring for each other kids. They could be compensated with money, food, items of clothing, furniture, whathaveyou or services.

Older children could step up to the plate and help with younger children. I babysat at 11 years of age. Yes, I did. For my entire neighborhood. From babies to 8 year olds. Nobody ever cracked their skull doing acrobatics off the furniture. I made sure we put a crap ton of pillows and other padding down.

Yeah, I don’t care what your perception is of today’s children or society. Change and adapt with the times or sit down, be quiet, and let the rest of us get on with it.

There is a solution for every problem. People who focus on the problem are guaranteed to complain, be angry, negative and stagnant. People working the problem and finding a workable solution, even if not perfect or ideal in the moment, are guaranteed to not complain, be happier, positive, and moving forward toward a better future. Take your pick.

 

[Cupidchild]

Anything can happen in this crazy market, but I agree with you, probably not 650 this week. Next Monday sounds good though

Macro headwinds and options delay. Bay step at a time.
Will wait it to hold 550 by EoD and then back to grinding up against most resistance on Monday

 

[Cupidchild]

I think I am buying protective puts tomorrow. I lucked out and bought some May 450 calls at the end of trading (mainly because of the Chanos dip). I had sold out of a lot of my shares two weeks ago because I thought I could trade around all of this volatility and ended up less long on shares on the jump back to the 500s than I needed to be. For the most part I should have stuck with HODL.

Timing is so tough short term. 550 21 EMA sell and then rebuy at 450 would have been ideal, hindsight.
I would have sold at 550 knowing rest of the professional traders taking profit or shorting at that point. But I don't think I would have bought back in at 450 bc of the possibility of P&D # being less than estimated. HoLd was good this time around.