Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Unlikely as there is no place for coolant to flow nor are there fins on the tubes. Standing liquid would heat up more slowly but then retain the heat longer. Also it would add weight.

That is probably right but we need keep in mind this cooling may only be needed during fast charging, if the pipe and the coolant start out cool, they take a while to heat up, during that time charging can proceed a bit faster..

In terms of weight, but would not make sense to add a lot of weight coolant is mainly to conduct heat from the wires to the pipe, the pipe also radiates some heat, but is covered, at least on top... if the underside of the pipe was in contact with the car body that is a different circumstance...and may conduct additional heat...

I agree it is a long shot.. and liquid in the pipe would be a surprise...

 

[Maitri982]

I'd rather them focus on killing big oil for good. More lives will be saved than working on medical equipment.

Would rather they focus on HVAC if they have some great new technology as the helps the environment too. They could outsource manufacturing even if that made sense.

 

[MC3OZ]

Shouldn't it be a good idea to make almost any softwarepackage cheaper the older the car is?

Not the $10/month subscription ones but almost anything with a onetime cost.

Very few people that have or buy a 10 year old Tesla (in a few years) will pay full price for FSD or almost anything else. That's because if a car survives for 20 years on average you are then paying double the cost per monthly usage.

So if expected life for a Tesla is 20 years and FSD is $10k (just making numbers up) it would make sense to be able to buy FSD for 7.5k after 5 years, 5k after 10 years, 2.5k after 15 years. Really, just lower it with $500 (in this case) per year.

This way Tesla could still make money on 5+ years old cars that otherwise they will make very little on.

Let's say in a few years Tesla makes 2 million cars. That can be done with the Gigafactories already started. If say 10% of those gets an FSD upgrade at reduced price on average when 10 years old it could bring in something like 200k cars x $5k = $1Billion a year. In pure profit.

I don't see a downside.

At this stage Tesla as banking on getting FSD working well enough to support a Robo-Taxi fleet, they will not drop the price if old cars can be put out to work.

Dropping the price remains a possibility if they really need the cash, but my hunch is they are going to be particularly stubborn here.

 

[22522]

I agree it is a long shot.. and liquid in the pipe would be a surprise...

1) The conduit is certainly grounded.
2) The electrical insulation requirements between a high voltage and ground are 1/2 of the insulation requirements between high voltage and everything else.
3) Electrical insulation is usually also thermal insulation.

So maybe 40% less temperature rise on the conductor - especially if you eliminate any air in the close fitting tube by displacing that air with phase change wax...

May be able to use aluminum wiring.

 

[MP3Mike]

May be able to use aluminum wiring.

It was aluminum already in the Model 3.

Tesla refers to those as the "High Voltage Busbars" in the Model Y vs "High Voltage Cabling" in the Model 3.

 

[FrankSG]

Yeah at 500 is a huge battle ground. Overall positive side of the market - I would like TSLA to break out of this range.. and next level of support.. Chances are better today.. I would like it to at least break out to 518 and settle at 512 today, so that we can move push higher tomorrow to 550. Let's watch and wait.

This aged well. You absolutely nailed it.

 

[Chocochip]

A quick update from the British Isles; March UK registration numbers for new cars were released today (6th April), and Tesla seems to have managed to beat their monthly delivery record, even with a lockdown in place for the past 2 weeks.

The exact number of deliveries is a bit of a guessing game, as Tesla refused to become a member of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) and therefore its registrations are bunched up with those of some exotic car makers in a category marked "Other imports" rather than broken off separately as for most OEMs. However, based on historical data it's safe to assume that all other registrations in this group except Tesla come to about 150 cars or less in March, and so out of the total 5235 "other imports", there should be something like 5100 Teslas. We will find out the exact number of registered Tesla vehicles for the whole Q1 sometime this summer, probably end of June, when they are published on the gov.uk website.

One thing we do know for sure is that there were 4718 Model 3s delivered. That's because the SMMT also publishes a list of the top 10 best selling models, and in March the 9th best selling car was... wait for it... "Other", with 4718 regs! Personally, I'm really curious to see what happens when Model Y deliveries hit their stride in the UK and both the 3 and the Y end up in the top 10... hmmm...

Of significance, this March saw a 44.4% drop in car registrations Y-o-Y, mainly attributed to the pandemic-associated lockdown. However, BEVs registered increased almost by a factor of 3, from 3917 in 2019 to 11,694 in 2020, and have reached a market share of 4.59% (mainly at the expense of diesels, who sadly still hold over 20% market share); previous record-high was 3.4% in August 2019, when the Model 3 was the 3rd best seller in the UK. There is actually a very close correlation between significant Model 3 deliveries and jumps in the BEV market share.

With the lockdown still in place for the foreseeable future, April looks pessimistic. This is even sadder as the benefit-in-kind tax cut for BEVs was about to kick in and I was hoping for a massive "wave"... The wave is momentarily delayed, but will hopefully be reaching these shores this summer.

 

[Zero CO2]

Since you are curious about the disagrees, I will say most probably disagree with the last line "it's their loss not ours". IMO losing their contributions is a big loss to everyone here.

ok i suppose that is sort of reasonable ... any way i guess I disagree those 2 poster that shall remain nameless had nothing to learn from the hundreds of other intelligent investors posting to this thread ... I will reword my point it is their loss and our loss

You're looking at this from the wrong angle.
Consider this forum as a place where you go to volunteer to help out, without pay and any meaningful compensation.
Now consider that the boss of that charity continuesly nags and bothers and annoys and corrects you, even though you're only trying to help.
If you think you're being treated unfairly, you will probably take it on the chin for a while if you care enough. But if it continues, after some time you're fed up and just say F this!! And yes, when this happens it's a loss for BOTH volunteer AND charity!
And as you have seen, it makes other volunteers who feel the same also leave.

ok thanks for that perspective ... it is a shame it had to escalate to that point ...

 

[Zero CO2]

The notion of Tesla supplying powertrains and/or batteries to other OEMs is fantastic! Focusing on the two things they do best would be the ideal scenario for the company. Depending on the terms and volumes of these deals, the stock would absolutely explode like a rocket and lead to early retirement for many of us.

The obvious roadblock is the battery constraint problem. One of my two biggest pipe dreams about Battery Day is Elon revealing how this is solved. (The other is a significant reduction in battery costs).

Don't worry, this doesn't mean Tesla would cease building cars.

need to control the consumer experience and battery supply constrained as you mention

 

[22522]

It was aluminum already in the Model 3.

Tesla refers to those as the "High Voltage Busbars" in the Model Y vs "High Voltage Cabling" in the Model 3.

Thank you.

As I was thinking that those should be busbars, I could not figure how to get the busbar into the grounded tube.

Since you told me that they are indeed busbars, the way to do that is to make the insulation system robust enough so that the concentric pieces of aluminum can shaped after assembly without compromising the insulation.

A high potential test after forming and some insulating material in between - that will not creep fast enough to matter.

It could be epoxy in the gap that is cured after forming, with some spacing beads to make sure insulation thickness is never compromised...

Nice work, whatever they did.

 

[Cupidchild]

This aged well. You absolutely nailed it.

Lucky guess.
Everyone must not forget we are still in a bear market.

Some say we will never go back to the re-test the same lows.
Some say we will go lower.
Some say higher lows...
Who knows.. I don't know.. better to be ready for anything.
I think for the sake of our economy and for everyone's well being (social structure) I would like SP to not go and re-test the lows but higher lows and then recover back-up. That's why I'm guessing
perhaps we go and retest higher lows around 380-420 area by week of 4/13-4/14.

Also remember that if everyone is thinking that it will re-test 350 again.. market never hit 350. lol

 

[CaliBear1]

Curt,

Welcome back to the fold! Are you allowed to share some of the other actionable ideas? Asking for a friend.

I got back into TSLA today after being out for nearly a week. ARKK too.

I originally bought TSLA over seven years ago. At that time it was recommended by Craig Johnson, Managing Director and Chief Market Technician at Piper Jaffray (now Piper Sandler), in his weekly newsletter. Craig was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show.

Today in his newsletter, Craig listed TSLA among his five positive actionable ideas. Meanwhile Craig's associate, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter, has TSLA rated as a BUY with an $820 price target.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Apr 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $510.19
Volume: 14,974,596
Traded: $7,639,951,474.95 ($7.64 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.25%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.65% (64th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 47.42% (62nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "TSLA moves up with the macros at 1:1 ratio"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shouldn't it be a good idea to make almost any softwarepackage cheaper the older the car is?

Not the $10/month subscription ones but almost anything with a onetime cost.

Very few people that have or buy a 10 year old Tesla (in a few years) will pay full price for FSD or almost anything else. That's because if a car survives for 20 years on average you are then paying double the cost per monthly usage.

So if expected life for a Tesla is 20 years and FSD is $10k (just making numbers up) it would make sense to be able to buy FSD for 7.5k after 5 years, 5k after 10 years, 2.5k after 15 years. Really, just lower it with $500 (in this case) per year.

This way Tesla could still make money on 5+ years old cars that otherwise they will make very little on.

Let's say in a few years Tesla makes 2 million cars. That can be done with the Gigafactories already started. If say 10% of those gets an FSD upgrade at reduced price on average when 10 years old it could bring in something like 200k cars x $5k = $1Billion a year. In pure profit.

I don't see a downside.

Rather than devalue the software licence, I advocate decoupling the license from the hardware. Make it portable, so it follows the owner around. If I sit in a Tesla (or my 'licensing' app does), I want it to have the full capabilties that I purchased.

 

[MC3OZ]

Rather than devalue the software licence, I advocate decoupling the license from the hardware. Make it portable, so it follows the owner around. If I sit in a Tesla (or my 'licensing' app does), I want it to have the full capabilties that I purchased.

All customers would like to see that, if not fully transferable, then at least a hefty discount on the next purchase.

So far Tesla don't seem to be attracted to the idea, they are assuming FSD will be fully functional, but customers are looking at the current capability.

Seems to me if someone has owned FSD for 3 years when it wasn't fully functional, and is buying a new Tesla, a hefty discount is fair, and good business practice.

 

[RobStark]

Showroom traffic coming back in China - slowly

Revenue is 63.8% of normal levels.

 

[FoverM]

All customers would like to see that, if not fully transferable, then at least a hefty discount on the next purchase.

So far Tesla don't seem to be attracted to the idea, they are assuming FSD will be fully functional, but customers are looking at the current capability.

Seems to me if someone has owned FSD for 3 years when it wasn't fully functional, and is buying a new Tesla, a hefty discount is fair, and good business practice.

I would rather Tesla move to a portable subscription model for FSD rather than what you suggest. Why? Because I've made my living writing software. If I offered a single license that was completely portable then I wouldn't have any incentive to improve that software (I'm not making any more money developing it). I offer "hefty" discounts for upgrading to my latest version, so that could work, but I still think the subscription model is best.

Note: I would like to move to a subscription model of my software but am limited by customer constraints.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Before the day is over here, I wanted to share some interesting stuff I heard today on a podcast from Third Row Tesla, but was since taken down after Waymo legal objected. Only a handful of people got to hear this early release that was only up long enough to listen once for me. It will be posted again, edited to be copacetic, then public on youtube here (as Episode 13).

The interview was with a former Engineer on the Tesla Self-driving team who was recently hired by Waymo two weeks ago. There are no hard facts, mostly opinion and experiences shared, but very convincing. Here are some highlights and sorry if I'm missing some details (no references and was doing other things). I'm trying not to exaggerate and not professing to being the note taker like @KarenRei - a high bar there.

My takeaway is that Tesla FSD is on track, Waymo is having vision challenges, and Uber... not sure b/c of all the laughing. As a result of hearing this, there is every reason to gather all the TSLA shares you can, IMHO. If it drops to below 400 again, I'm stocking up.

1. Waymo's main objective is to sell FSD technology to others (not sure if he meant GM, or Uber types).
2. The large LIDAR on top is still necessary. Smaller doesn't work very well (no details).
3. One problem with LIDAR is dropped frames from interference out there on the streets (and possibly from each other as Elon stated in the past along with his "LIDAR is doomed" msg). This is why they have the added four LIDAR units in the corners.
4. Waymo's 3D models are amazing. (I got the impression this Engineer was solicited for his experience in Camera vision at Tesla.)
5. Something... I forgot. Karen, help me out.
6. All code was written in-house (unheard of) so changes can be very fast. (Sounds just like their internalized vehicle parts strategy.)
7. Differences between MCU 2.5 and 3 are visualization and speed. So 2.5 is missing no other features.
8. No actual headcount provided at Tesla for FSD team, but they came from Apple, Google, etc...
9. There is no sub-team that's separated by country. All data comes to the same team from all countries (and this Engineer claims to have experienced driving in every country, lol.)
10. "They are working on roundabouts which are very difficult. In fact, they are working on everything you'd encounter on a drive from here to San Francisco... everything." (IDK where "here" is)
11. The vehicles perform mini software upgrades between the ones we see. Example was that the shape and size data of traffic lights might be updated for better accuracy.
12. They teach the Neural Net (NN) at first on individual items like Stop signs until that's solid, then they add in lights or street signs as they relate. (Sounds like the system is learning context - how data relates for situational focus and efficiency.)
13. The code rewrite vastly improved efficiency (I think he was referring to V10 and plenty of room to grow.) Tesla will emerge as not just a Bright Star but "The Brightest Star" in the auto industry. (No discussion of Energy, not relevant)
14. This former Tesla Engineer started in Tesla Service and was a real performance car guy w/ loud exhaust etc... Bought an MR after driving all the vehicles in service, wrecked it and Tesla insurance covered it smoothly b/c of camera data. Then he bought a M3P while his best friend kept saying "You got a Tesla just because you work there, huh?" His best friend owns a Tesla now.
15. Service is completely different from any other service model. "The future will eventually be fully automated repair."

Did anyone else listen? There was probably 3X the info but it's all I could recall. And apparently Waymo is a member of this podcast as well and had them remove portions of the clip (being re-edited and coming out soon to 3rd Row Patrons, then public). There was also a lot of emphasis on how the world will change. "Everything we buy requires gas and people today and soon you won't need those at all."

Not advise, but just that I'm much more confident in my Tesla shares at work, enough that I actually wrote this all down for you all. Have you ever seen something like this from me before? Go ahead, say I drank the holy water all you want.

 

[LJS22]

Before the day is over here, I wanted to share some interesting stuff I heard today on a podcast from Third Row Tesla, but was since taken down after Waymo legal objected. Only a handful of people got to hear this early release that was only up long enough to listen once for me. It will be posted again, edited to be copacetic, then public on youtube here (as Episode 13).

The interview was with a former Engineer on the Tesla Self-driving team who was recently hired by Waymo two weeks ago. There are no hard facts, mostly opinion and experiences shared, but very convincing. Here are some highlights and sorry if I'm missing some details (no references and was doing other things). I'm trying not to exaggerate and not professing to being the note taker like @KarenRei - a high bar there.

My takeaway is that Tesla FSD is on track, Waymo is having vision challenges, and Uber... not sure b/c of all the laughing. As a result of hearing this, there is every reason to gather all the TSLA shares you can, IMHO. If it drops to below 400 again, I'm stocking up.

1. Waymo's main objective is to sell FSD technology to others (not sure if he meant GM, or Uber types).
2. The large LIDAR on top is still necessary. Smaller doesn't work very well (no details).
3. One problem with LIDAR is dropped frames from interference out there on the streets (and possibly from each other as Elon stated in the past along with his "LIDAR is doomed" msg). This is why they have the added four LIDAR units in the corners.
4. Waymo's 3D models are amazing. (I got the impression this Engineer was solicited for his experience in Camera vision at Tesla.)
5. Something... I forgot. Karen, help me out.
6. All code was written in-house (unheard of) so changes can be very fast. (Sounds just like their internalized vehicle parts strategy.)
7. Differences between MCU 2.5 and 3 are visualization and speed. So 2.5 is missing no other features.
8. No actual headcount provided at Tesla for FSD team, but they came from Apple, Google, etc...
9. There is no sub-team that's separated by country. All data comes to the same team from all countries (and this Engineer claims to have experienced driving in every country, lol.)
10. "They are working on roundabouts which are very difficult. In fact, they are working on everything you'd encounter on a drive from here to San Francisco... everything." (IDK where "here" is)
11. The vehicles perform mini software upgrades between the ones we see. Example was that the shape and size data of traffic lights might be updated for better accuracy.
12. They teach the Neural Net (NN) at first on individual items like Stop signs until that's solid, then they add in lights or street signs as they relate. (Sounds like the system is learning context - how data relates for situational focus and efficiency.)
13. The code rewrite vastly improved efficiency (I think he was referring to V10 and plenty of room to grow.) Tesla will emerge as not just a Bright Star but "The Brightest Star" in the auto industry. (No discussion of Energy, not relevant)
14. This former Tesla Engineer started in Tesla Service and was a real performance car guy w/ loud exhaust etc... Bought an MR after driving all the vehicles in service, wrecked it and Tesla insurance covered it smoothly b/c of camera data. Then he bought a M3P while his best friend kept saying "You got a Tesla just because you work there, huh?" His best friend owns a Tesla now.
15. Service is completely different from any other service model. "The future will eventually be fully automated repair."

Did anyone else listen? There was probably 3X the info but it's all I could recall. And apparently Waymo is a member of this podcast as well and had them remove portions of the clip (being re-edited and coming out soon to 3rd Row Patrons, then public). There was also a lot of emphasis on how the world will change. "Everything we buy requires gas and people today and soon you won't need those at all."

Not advise, but just that I'm much more confident in my Tesla shares at work, enough that I actually wrote this all down for you all. Have you ever seen something like this from me before? Go ahead, say I drank the holy water all you want.

It’s my opinion that once Tesla or another company can complete software capable of driving in most situations that states, and cities will craft the standards of their roads to better help the FSD cars to perform with no issues. I think we will see a reform in street signs, lines painted, and various ways that help the car read and react to its surroundings.
It may go as far as data being sent to the cars from stop lights, gps, and other road checkpoints to help the car not only take the best path, but insure the safety of the occupants.

As an investor I struggle to put any value on FSD. I want to believe that it will be here sooner than later, however investing solely in the belief that it will transpire from Tesla is difficult. I think the auto, energy and battery sector that Tesla occupies is more than enough for a healthy evaluation; FSD is more like a lottery ticket. If they hit it then you can’t have enough shares, but if they don’t I think we will be just fine!

 

[MC3OZ]

It’s my opinion that once Tesla or another company can complete software capable of driving in most situations that states, and cities will craft the standards of their roads to better help the FSD cars to perform with no issues. I think we will see a reform in street signs, lines painted, and various ways that help the car read and react to its surroundings.
It may go as far as data being sent to the cars from stop lights, gps, and other road checkpoints to help the car not only take the best path, but insure the safety of the occupants.

As an investor I struggle to put any value on FSD. I want to believe that it will be here sooner than later, however investing solely in the belief that it will transpire from Tesla is difficult. I think the auto, energy and battery sector that Tesla occupies is more than enough for a healthy evaluation; FSD is more like a lottery ticket. If they hit it then you can’t have enough shares, but if they don’t I think we will be just fine!

I can't see a compelling reason why a competitor will have FSD significantly before Tesla, and i can see lots of reasons why Tesla can easily out compete most other solutions on price.

It is hard to value because it is hard to put a time-frame on it, but I think Tesla has a good team and a solid approach, they will be hard to beat.