Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Roundabouts are also among the hardest driving tasks for humans, particularly for the timid and over aggressive. So this is actually among the larger opportunities for FSD to make driving safer, by eliminating human emotion in place of cold hard statistics and physics.

Agreed. Some roundabouts work well, and some have to be rebuilt several times before they are usable. The best thing about roundabouts is that there are no stop sign tickets, in case you only slowed to 2 mph.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

That's certainly one way to kill robotaxi at the start. No company or individual will pay that on a new speculative venture.

There's already, or will be at least, a few hundred thousand Teslas that bought in for the current price that can prove that theory in a month or two if (when) Robotaxi becomes real.

If anyone think they can wait till the business model is proven and then pay $10k for FSD and use their car as a robotaxi for 20 years then you are in for a surprise.

But yeah, more likely a subscription model. $50-100/month for non commercial use. $1000-2000/month for robotaxi/semis.

 

[Sancho]

It’s my opinion that once Tesla or another company can complete software capable of driving in most situations that states, and cities will craft the standards of their roads to better help the FSD cars to perform with no issues. I think we will see a reform in street signs, lines painted, and various ways that help the car read and react to its surroundings.
It may go as far as data being sent to the cars from stop lights, gps, and other road checkpoints to help the car not only take the best path, but insure the safety of the occupants.

As an investor I struggle to put any value on FSD. I want to believe that it will be here sooner than later, however investing solely in the belief that it will transpire from Tesla is difficult. I think the auto, energy and battery sector that Tesla occupies is more than enough for a healthy evaluation; FSD is more like a lottery ticket. If they hit it then you can’t have enough shares, but if they don’t I think we will be just fine!

Do you really see FSD as “more like a lottery ticket?” That means you assign the odds of it happening within a few years as very, very small. I’m closer to Cathie Woods’ view that there is enough of a real possibility of FSD coming to fruition in a soon enough time frame to impact my current TSLA valuation assessment.

 

[charlesgres]

But yeah, more likely a subscription model. $50-100/month for non commercial use. $1000-2000/month for robotaxi/semis.

I don't know. Given that Tesla wants to run its own robotaxi service, they will likely face antitrust issues if they charge these amounts.. IMO they will charge a small percentage of the price per ride for people or companies using their car(s) for robotaxi service.. Whether you are an individual or a company should not make a difference in this regard..

So I think robotaxi will be priced separately from the FSD itself..

Edit: nevertheless selling FSD as a subscription would still make a lot of sense, in terms of guaranteeing continued effort to improve and not charging people double when they change cars..

 

[Hock1]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

As early as this week, Tesla plans to expand its lineup in China by offering a locally built Model 3 sedan with a range of more than 650 kilometers (404 miles) on one charge. That compares with about 450 kilometers for the current most basic version that starts at 323,800 yuan ($45,800). The variant would start at about 350,000 yuan before rebates, though exact pricing has yet to be decided.

Does it not follow that when Fremont opens again (or soon after), TSLA will be building those 404-mile Model 3s? Unless I've missed something, I believe the current max range is 345 miles. No?

 

[Hytra]

Does it not follow that when Fremont opens again (or soon after), TSLA will be building those 404-mile Model 3s? Unless I've missed something, I believe the current max range is 345 miles. No?

Those are NEDC miles, not EPA I think.

 

[Hock1]

Those are NEDC miles, not EPA I think.

You are probably right. Thanks.

 

[ZeApelido]

Before the day is over here, I wanted to share some interesting stuff I heard today on a podcast from Third Row Tesla, but was since taken down after Waymo legal objected. Only a handful of people got to hear this early release that was only up long enough to listen once for me. It will be posted again, edited to be copacetic, then public on youtube here (as Episode 13).

The interview was with a former Engineer on the Tesla Self-driving team who was recently hired by Waymo two weeks ago. There are no hard facts, mostly opinion and experiences shared, but very convincing. Here are some highlights and sorry if I'm missing some details (no references and was doing other things). I'm trying not to exaggerate and not professing to being the note taker like @KarenRei - a high bar there.

My takeaway is that Tesla FSD is on track, Waymo is having vision challenges, and Uber... not sure b/c of all the laughing. As a result of hearing this, there is every reason to gather all the TSLA shares you can, IMHO. If it drops to below 400 again, I'm stocking up.

1. Waymo's main objective is to sell FSD technology to others (not sure if he meant GM, or Uber types).
2. The large LIDAR on top is still necessary. Smaller doesn't work very well (no details).
3. One problem with LIDAR is dropped frames from interference out there on the streets (and possibly from each other as Elon stated in the past along with his "LIDAR is doomed" msg). This is why they have the added four LIDAR units in the corners.
4. Waymo's 3D models are amazing. (I got the impression this Engineer was solicited for his experience in Camera vision at Tesla.)
5. Something... I forgot. Karen, help me out.
6. All code was written in-house (unheard of) so changes can be very fast. (Sounds just like their internalized vehicle parts strategy.)
7. Differences between MCU 2.5 and 3 are visualization and speed. So 2.5 is missing no other features.
8. No actual headcount provided at Tesla for FSD team, but they came from Apple, Google, etc...
9. There is no sub-team that's separated by country. All data comes to the same team from all countries (and this Engineer claims to have experienced driving in every country, lol.)
10. "They are working on roundabouts which are very difficult. In fact, they are working on everything you'd encounter on a drive from here to San Francisco... everything." (IDK where "here" is)
11. The vehicles perform mini software upgrades between the ones we see. Example was that the shape and size data of traffic lights might be updated for better accuracy.
12. They teach the Neural Net (NN) at first on individual items like Stop signs until that's solid, then they add in lights or street signs as they relate. (Sounds like the system is learning context - how data relates for situational focus and efficiency.)
13. The code rewrite vastly improved efficiency (I think he was referring to V10 and plenty of room to grow.) Tesla will emerge as not just a Bright Star but "The Brightest Star" in the auto industry. (No discussion of Energy, not relevant)
14. This former Tesla Engineer started in Tesla Service and was a real performance car guy w/ loud exhaust etc... Bought an MR after driving all the vehicles in service, wrecked it and Tesla insurance covered it smoothly b/c of camera data. Then he bought a M3P while his best friend kept saying "You got a Tesla just because you work there, huh?" His best friend owns a Tesla now.
15. Service is completely different from any other service model. "The future will eventually be fully automated repair."

Did anyone else listen? There was probably 3X the info but it's all I could recall. And apparently Waymo is a member of this podcast as well and had them remove portions of the clip (being re-edited and coming out soon to 3rd Row Patrons, then public). There was also a lot of emphasis on how the world will change. "Everything we buy requires gas and people today and soon you won't need those at all."

Not advise, but just that I'm much more confident in my Tesla shares at work, enough that I actually wrote this all down for you all. Have you ever seen something like this from me before? Go ahead, say I drank the holy water all you want.

Interesting, thanks.

I didn't get the context of his work... He worked in Service than Autopilot /FSD team... Is he a machine learning engineer or other?

 

[Chenkers]

Another big battery being proposed for Australia. This time a 600MW facility in Victoria to reinforce the link to South Australia and provide network services. This is linked with Victoria deciding to go it alone on network planning given the slow pace and inaction at Federal level.

Neoen, Mondo plan massive 600MW Victoria big battery near Geelong | RenewEconomy

The project is by Neoen, the same developer who collaborated with Tesla for the Hornsdale Power Reserve. It looks an ideal application for Megapack. The article also gives a good run-down of some of the other batteries currently being planned or developed in Australia.

 

[dc_h]

With the lockdown still in place for the foreseeable future, April looks pessimistic. This is even sadder as the benefit-in-kind tax cut for BEVs was about to kick in and I was hoping for a massive "wave"... The wave is momentarily delayed, but will hopefully be reaching these shores this summer.

Do we know if Tesla is doing touchless deliveries in the UK? They are doing no touch deliveries here in the USA and another big advantage of a common global sales and delivery system is moving to best practices everywhere. Touchless may be faster then traditional delivery, so who knows.
"We're reaching out to confirm your updated upcoming touchless delivery appointment at our location... We've designed our process to get you on the road safely within 15-30 minutes of starting the delivery so you can enjoy the rest of the day, here's how it will work. When you arrive for your scheduled delivery time - a virtual orientation will be scheduled with your assigned Tesla advisor with a link sent to your email...Our team looks forward to introducing you to your new Tesla and welcoming you to the Tesla family."
This may have created some extra focus on what the delivery process requires and will wind up making the process more efficient and effective. There are some bumpy roads ahead, until the virus is tamed. Best wishes to everyone.

 

[Prunesquallor]

540 premarket. Looks like an interesting day ahead.

 

[JusRelax]

Before the day is over here, I wanted to share some interesting stuff I heard today on a podcast from Third Row Tesla, but was since taken down after Waymo legal objected. Only a handful of people got to hear this early release that was only up long enough to listen once for me. It will be posted again, edited to be copacetic, then public on youtube here (as Episode 13).

The interview was with a former Engineer on the Tesla Self-driving team who was recently hired by Waymo two weeks ago. There are no hard facts, mostly opinion and experiences shared, but very convincing. Here are some highlights and sorry if I'm missing some details (no references and was doing other things). I'm trying not to exaggerate and not professing to being the note taker like @KarenRei - a high bar there.

My takeaway is that Tesla FSD is on track, Waymo is having vision challenges, and Uber... not sure b/c of all the laughing. As a result of hearing this, there is every reason to gather all the TSLA shares you can, IMHO. If it drops to below 400 again, I'm stocking up.

1. Waymo's main objective is to sell FSD technology to others (not sure if he meant GM, or Uber types).
2. The large LIDAR on top is still necessary. Smaller doesn't work very well (no details).
3. One problem with LIDAR is dropped frames from interference out there on the streets (and possibly from each other as Elon stated in the past along with his "LIDAR is doomed" msg). This is why they have the added four LIDAR units in the corners.
4. Waymo's 3D models are amazing. (I got the impression this Engineer was solicited for his experience in Camera vision at Tesla.)
5. Something... I forgot. Karen, help me out.
6. All code was written in-house (unheard of) so changes can be very fast. (Sounds just like their internalized vehicle parts strategy.)
7. Differences between MCU 2.5 and 3 are visualization and speed. So 2.5 is missing no other features.
8. No actual headcount provided at Tesla for FSD team, but they came from Apple, Google, etc...
9. There is no sub-team that's separated by country. All data comes to the same team from all countries (and this Engineer claims to have experienced driving in every country, lol.)
10. "They are working on roundabouts which are very difficult. In fact, they are working on everything you'd encounter on a drive from here to San Francisco... everything." (IDK where "here" is)
11. The vehicles perform mini software upgrades between the ones we see. Example was that the shape and size data of traffic lights might be updated for better accuracy.
12. They teach the Neural Net (NN) at first on individual items like Stop signs until that's solid, then they add in lights or street signs as they relate. (Sounds like the system is learning context - how data relates for situational focus and efficiency.)
13. The code rewrite vastly improved efficiency (I think he was referring to V10 and plenty of room to grow.) Tesla will emerge as not just a Bright Star but "The Brightest Star" in the auto industry. (No discussion of Energy, not relevant)
14. This former Tesla Engineer started in Tesla Service and was a real performance car guy w/ loud exhaust etc... Bought an MR after driving all the vehicles in service, wrecked it and Tesla insurance covered it smoothly b/c of camera data. Then he bought a M3P while his best friend kept saying "You got a Tesla just because you work there, huh?" His best friend owns a Tesla now.
15. Service is completely different from any other service model. "The future will eventually be fully automated repair."

Did anyone else listen? There was probably 3X the info but it's all I could recall. And apparently Waymo is a member of this podcast as well and had them remove portions of the clip (being re-edited and coming out soon to 3rd Row Patrons, then public). There was also a lot of emphasis on how the world will change. "Everything we buy requires gas and people today and soon you won't need those at all."

Not advise, but just that I'm much more confident in my Tesla shares at work, enough that I actually wrote this all down for you all. Have you ever seen something like this from me before? Go ahead, say I drank the holy water all you want.

There is a thread on reddit regarding this podcast, and one of the posts there has a bulletpoint summary of the first 30 minutes of the podcast that touched on some of the points that @SOULPEDL missed; you can find that thread here:

Third Row Tesla Podcast - Episode 13 - Tesla's Future : teslamotors

Some key takeaways from those notes:

Looks like the AP team is craving more data -- they will implement it so that any time autopilot is disengaged, the disengagement will automatically be sent back to the team
Labeling is now done in 3D
Smart summon should work much better in future iterations due to the 3D labeling redesign, which utilizes all zoomable/pannable cameras (previous only non-pannable/zoomable side/rear camera footage) to detect curbs
In the distant future, the car/app will know when repairs are needed and the car will drive itself to the service center

 

[BenPrice]

540 premarket. Looks like an interesting day ahead.

That equity raise and accumulation prior is supporting us now.

And the Q1 results validate.

Gonna go to the MOON if Fremont can open faster than expected. Welcome to 750+.

Possible moonshot within 21 days.

We’re well above max pain today - I’m expecting pull back this week. But will open a GIANT upside position if we drop off by Friday.

 

[Pras]

540 premarket. Looks like an interesting day ahead.

Tesla is still attractive but market is getting ahead of reality on ground. I would be cautious buying in this market (maybe some select names, like Tesla because we know it is a near term 800-1000 stock, and long term is anybody’s guess).

 

[MartinAustin]

From the pre-market, it looks like TSLA is itching to start at $540 and burn upwards

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Tesla is still attractive but market is getting ahead of reality on ground. I would be cautious buying in this market (maybe some select names, like Tesla because we know it is a near term 800-1000 stock, and long term is anybody’s guess).

If you're truly long, then you're long and your point of entry is largely unimportant. If you're a day trader, short seller, or speculator then point of entry is everything.

Dan

 

[NicoV]

Tesla is still attractive but market is getting ahead of reality on ground. I would be cautious buying in this market (maybe some select names, like Tesla because we know it is a near term 800-1000 stock, and long term is anybody’s guess).

Earnings season is coming up. We’ll see an endless stream of earnings misses and negative outlooks on earnings releases. Here and there there will be companies (e.g. Netflix) for which the Corona outbreak was positive, but I fear most companies will be negatively impacted. We’ll see in which category Tesla will reside, but ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ also works in the opposite direction.

 

[mongo]

If you're truly long, then you're long and your point of entry is largely unimportant. If you're a day trader, short seller, or speculator then point of entry is everything.

Dan

I don't know about that, 20% more shares is 20% more shares and/or 20% more $$$.
Only if your TSLA returns already exceed your future spending/ retirement plans does addition of shares not matter.

 

[joh01652]

This looks promising:

Tesla nears debut of new 400-mile China-made Model 3

Hope this means a 400 mi range MY coming to US at some point...

 

[Chenkers]

If you're truly long, then you're long and your point of entry is largely unimportant.
Dan

Point of entry matters if you have a fixed amount and want to maximise your number of shares. I'd rather have 1000 at $450 than 750 at $600. Down the track that could be over $1M in additional wealth generation. The recent volatility makes a lower entry possible but the relative lows will keep rising as the news keeps improving.