Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TexasGator]

thanks I see it now also - wont rule out operator error

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this morning: Tesla launches discontinued Model 3 Long Range RWD as made-in-China car - Electrek

Benzinga - this morning:Tesla Says Starts Selling Locally-made Long-range Model 3 Vehicles in China to be Priced at 339,050 Yuan After Subsidies; Locally-made Performance Model 3 to be Priced at 419,800 Yuan

 

[ZachF]

Hrmm, Does anyone else think that Tesla could be the only auto manufacturer to increase sales in 2020?

 

[Singuy]

Can someone explain sqqq? I saw some people investing in this during this downturn but lost huge this week. Also looking at historical numbers and this fund went from 20k to 20 bucks/share? Wtf? How is shorting stocks a thing with this kind of return?

 

[Krugerrand]

More time for some of us to perfect "storm and conquer"

Works both ways, Buddy. I’ve already started my tiger x pit bull breeding program. And I’m working closely with — oh, don’t want to give away all my secrets. Be afraid.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am confused. In an earlier post, you stated you were 45% in cash. If you do not think Tesla will pull back from the current price, so that you can buy shares, what purpose do you have for having such a large amount of cash?

Where did I say I thought TSLA would not pull back from it's current price? In fact, I've stated many times trying to guess short-term price movements of stocks is a fool's game. A week or two ago I also stated I expect another trip to the high $300's but that I wouldn't wait for it because it might not come.

As to being 45% in cash, much of that is from TSLA options purchased last year that had expirations In Jan, Feb and March of this year. Some of it is from other stocks I had been holding for years that I took profits from in January and February because the market looked like a low-reward for a high risk. I didn't sell TSLA because it looked high reward/low risk (and then COVID 19 happened).

It's normal for my cash balance to vary over the years depending upon how much risk I see in the markets. I've been retired for 20 years and have no income beyond interest and dividends, no pension, no S.S. for the next ten years and no earned income. This month I retired from my last gig because it became more trouble than it was worth. I don't separate capital gains, dividends and interest (except of course for tax purposes), I treat it all the same - as capital. I don't have a budget and I don't have spending limits. I buy whatever I want, whenever I want it and that has not changed in my retirement. So I keep 2-10 years cash on hand and the number varies depending upon how much risk I see in the market. There are no hard and fast rules. Right now, due to a confluence of events, I have more than 10 years cash on hand. I'll re-invest it if and when I feel like it - there is no rush. I have plenty of TSLA as well as some leaps, if it goes up even 5X I'll have no money concerns for the rest of my life. I've told you more than you need to know but maybe you will stop asking uninformed questions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Did i miss anything here-- Tesla just released a Chinese built M3 with 400 mile range!? Was this expected or a non event, given the relative lack of news. I admit to not paying attention to the M3 US built range, but last i checked just now is 322 miles. Wasn't range the achilles heel for EVs? How would a 400 mile range M3 do in the US? Is this a 400 mile range with asterisk--only achievable in China?

Yes, you missed the news. This article was published on March 6, 2020: (over a month ago)

https://business.financialpost.com/...sell-longer-range-china-made-model-3-vehicles

 

[Mo City]

Tesla may also be able to use this crisis to their advantage if they can get another already-built factory on the cheap for Cybertruck.

That ship has sailed.

Based on Shanghai so far and what will likely happen near Berlin, Tesla can quickly and efficiently build factories from scratch. It becomes easier each time.

If Tesla begins construction of the Cybertruck GF by the end of next year, competitors and haters will start whining about their near-monopoly of the BEV segment, their huge market cap advantage and how the government needs to ensure a competitive marketplace.

Then, watch them flip out even more when Elon announces a 2nd GF in China in 3 years (assuming China's economy avoids worst-case debt scenarios post-COVID-19)..

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Shorts getting margin called is my guess. It is up 14$ now. Next week should be fun.

now up $21. wow!

That ship has sailed.

Based on Shanghai so far and what will likely happen near Berlin, Tesla can quickly and efficiently build factories from scratch. It becomes easier each time.

If Tesla begins construction of the Cybertruck GF by the end of next year, competitors and haters will start whining about their near-monopoly of the BEV segment, their huge market cap advantage and how governments need to ensure a competitive marketplace.

I suspect you may be accurate about the monopoly complaint and wouldn’t that be ironic coming from 100yr old auto co. and $TSLAQ who have screamed Tesla as fraud and can’t mass produce. Would also be funny if some politician would tell the monopoly complainers that they had there opportunity to corner the BEV market but they chose not to do so.

 

[Pezpunk]

Did i miss anything here-- Tesla just released a Chinese built M3 with 400 mile range!? Was this expected or a non event, given the relative lack of news. I admit to not paying attention to the M3 US built range, but last i checked just now is 322 miles. Wasn't range the achilles heel for EVs? How would a 400 mile range M3 do in the US? Is this a 400 mile range with asterisk--only achievable in China?

it's using the NEDC range system instead of EPA. real-world, it's the same range as the current US Model 3.

 

[JustSaying]

Look how good Ford came out of the last crisis - got a tax payer funded $5.9 billion dollar loan, and goodwill from consumers for "not taking a bailout"! And what's worse, if you know the REAL reason they didn't take a bailout is because they had just leveraged everything they owned - including the blue oval trademark and headquarters for the first time in history, to avoid bankruptcy so a) simply didn't need more cash, and b) simply couldn't take on more debt.

Essentially, Ford was the luckiest company in the history of the world. Because they were doing SO poorly during good economic times, they had to mortgage the farm. All the other manufacturers had decent balance sheets, so they weren't borrowing. When the banking collapse happened, and no one was buying cars, the other manufacturers obviously needed money, but the banks had none to loan (they were getting bailed out themselves). So Ford, because they were in such trouble financially borrowed money just before it all disappeared. And then ran commercials saying how they didn't take the tax payers money. Biggest sham I've ever seen. Ford sold a TON of F150s to Chevy lovers after the 2008 collapse.

Selling Aston Martin, Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo between 2007 and 2010 sure helped Ford's cash position.

 

[StealthP3D]

Then, watch them flip out even more when Elon announces a 2nd GF in China in 3 years

3 years? I expect Tesla to announce the second GF in China towards the end of next year. Why are you so bearish?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Look how good Ford came out of the last crisis - got a tax payer funded $5.9 billion dollar loan, and goodwill from consumers for "not taking a bailout"! And what's worse, if you know the REAL reason they didn't take a bailout is because they had just leveraged everything they owned - including the blue oval trademark and headquarters for the first time in history, to avoid bankruptcy so a) simply didn't need more cash, and b) simply couldn't take on more debt.

Essentially, Ford was the luckiest company in the history of the world. Because they were doing SO poorly during good economic times, they had to mortgage the farm. All the other manufacturers had decent balance sheets, so they weren't borrowing. When the banking collapse happened, and no one was buying cars, the other manufacturers obviously needed money, but the banks had none to loan (they were getting bailed out themselves). So Ford, because they were in such trouble financially borrowed money just before it all disappeared. And then ran commercials saying how they didn't take the tax payers money. Biggest sham I've ever seen. Ford sold a TON of F150s to Chevy lovers after the 2008 collapse.

Automakers' Report Card: Who Still Owes Taxpayers Money? The Answer Might Surprise You

That $5.9B loan by Ford is still owing.

Ford Motor owes the government $5.9 billion it borrowed in June 2009, the same month GM filed for bankruptcy. By Sept. 15, Ford needs to start paying that money back. In a government filing, the carmaker said $577 million is due within the next year, and the full amount must be paid off by June 15, 2022.

And with COVID-19 they will have an excuse not to pay back the rightful Taxpayer and most likely ask for much more. Their loan was specific amoung other items to built out EVs. How are they doing with that? Ford sqaundered it all away during the good times. All OEM will go bankwupt without Government intervention. Tesla will be the only stand out.

 

[Mo City]

View attachment 530866

Can you share this spreadsheet pretty please?

 

[dl003]

Can someone explain sqqq? I saw some people investing in this during this downturn but lost huge this week. Also looking at historical numbers and this fund went from 20k to 20 bucks/share? Wtf? How is shorting stocks a thing with this kind of return?

Maybe because they used 200% margin?
starting equity $20M, borrowed $40M
Losing 33% would wipe out your equity overnight.
Don't ask me why I think this.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Automakers' Report Card: Who Still Owes Taxpayers Money? The Answer Might Surprise You

That $5.9B loan by Ford is still owing.

Ford Motor owes the government $5.9 billion it borrowed in June 2009, the same month GM filed for bankruptcy. By Sept. 15, Ford needs to start paying that money back. In a government filing, the carmaker said $577 million is due within the next year, and the full amount must be paid off by June 15, 2022.

And with COVID-19 they will have an excuse not to pay back the rightful Taxpayer and most likely ask for much more. Their loan was specific amoung other items to built out EVs. How are they doing with that? Ford sqaundered it all away during the good times. All OEM will go bankwupt without Government intervention. Tesla will be the only stand out.

However, that article is 7 years old. I'd sure like to know if they still owe on it today.

If we use that article for a source of information for today's status, then we'd have to take this as Tesla's current loan situation.

"Tesla: used its $465 million loan to build a battery plant and retool part of a former Toyota-GM factory to build the Model S, its second electric car. So far, only 100 of the cars have been built, well shy of its 2012 goal of 5,000. But the company says it’s on track. Loan repayments start in December. Tesla, which went public in July 2010, hopes to break even by 2013."

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Coronavirus pushes auto dealers to embrace online sales like Tesla, Carvana — CNBC

I wonder if this will cause states that outlaw selling direct to consumer to end those restrictions. That would be a great benefit for Tesla

 

[SOULPEDL]

Here is a pretty good summary of Munro's Model Y breakdown of everything before the above Munro video:

I don't agree with their last point on the theory why no hitch for Model Y (claiming to get the product out sooner). I probably wouldn't want Cyber or an X if the Y could tow, so ya it was Osborning on me. We know how range really suffers with towing on the X, so that's not a proper solution.

So here's my theory, there is plenty of demand for Y that they don't need to add a tow feature... still. They designed it that way without the virus problem, but they also didn't mod it to add one in (or at least a cross-member to bolt it to). I do agree they might retrofit them, but only after CyberTruck or to play with demand. These are not very good tow vehicles w/o more range, so why should they show a weak hand trying to get more sales than they need.

 

[sdtslafan]

nice to finally see some stability in the markets today.

 

[mikevbf]

I don't agree with their last point on the theory why no hitch for Model Y (claiming to get the product out sooner). I probably wouldn't want Cyber or an X if the Y could tow, so ya it was Osborning on me. We know how range really suffers with towing on the X, so that's not a proper solution.

So here's my theory, there is plenty of demand for Y that they don't need to add a tow feature... still. They designed it that way without the virus problem, but they also didn't mod it to add one in (or at least a cross-member to bolt it to). I do agree they might retrofit them, but only after CyberTruck or to play with demand. These are not very good tow vehicles w/o more range, so why should they show a weak hand trying to get more sales than they need.

You are aware that tow option was added today to the Model Y?