Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

I get all that, and I do get where he is coming from. But a lot of people, especially non Tesla, non technical people will watch that YouTube video in isolation and think the Model Y sucks. If he had explained his words a bit better providing context for his disappointment it would have been so much better.

Also, he is behind the times. While Elon did boast about the upcoming Model Y wiring almost three years ago, he subsequently reversed his position, explaining that his management team had convinced him to do less cutting edge stuff in the Model Y to allow it to be brought to market faster. So Munro, supposed expert, doesn’t even know what the latest info is about the Model Y.

Frankly, I’m impressed they stuffed in a brand new heating/cooling system based on a heat pump. And even that one, they had to rush it, not having had the time to put a noise jacket around the new compressor.

So instead of calling him a dick, maybe I should have said he’s unclear, easily misinterpreted, and unknowledgeable. I think my original wording was more concise, but maybe misinterpreted

To be fair, Munro did repeatedly said "The panel gaps are still not quite as good as other luxury makers, but it's a big improvement from the model 3" and "Tesla is learning fast". He didn't have to say those words. After all, he's a human. Cut him some slack.
As for uninformed people who are prone to making false assumptions, they will lose money in the market. Period. You can't save everybody.

 

[EVMeister]

MMD time?

 

[qphan79]

Candidly, this assertion is false.
Munro has worked for a wide variety of companies. He and his team do quite excellent work on teardown analysis. He has never been a particular 'defender' or anybody AFAIK, and I've seen his work from time to time for years. To my knowledge he has done the same work for both highly successful and not-so-successful competitors.

The change, a big one, is that retail investors in TSLA will happily consume his products. Until TSLA his products sold to engineers and cost accountants examining their competition and, sometimes, examining their own products from an external perspective.

not arguing anything you are saying. But he never had a “live” stream taking apart other cars before...

 

[mongo]

Frankly, I’m impressed they stuffed in a brand new heating/cooling system based on a heat pump. And even that one, they had to rush it, not having had the time to put a noise jacket around the new compressor.

Not all the Y's have noisy heat pumps so iti is not a 100% occurrence issue.

My Model Y Stealth P is pretty loud from the interior cabin compared to my wife's Model Y AWD.

The heat pump is part of the reason the Y range is so close to the 3 in spite of it's larger cross-section. It also likely brought the vehicle cost down. The removal of the air based condenser will also help with repair costs. The removal of the cabin PTC heater cuts system costs.

HEAVY CAVEAT: Jack Rickard said he was entering into that trade because 'options were mispriced'. I have no idea if they are mispriced now, or even that they were mispriced then. That's just what Jack stated. I don't have the tools to judge.

Likely mispriced, against us buying islands.

 

[Boomer19]

You are always buying from the market. The point is that the market is where buyers and sellers meet up. In my example case, the contract expired while still in the money, so all the holders like me exercised at the same time, and all the writers had to somehow come up with shares to deliver. When I have exercised early, someone (I don't actually know who...) randomly (supposedly) assigns the contract among the open contracts, and delivers the shares to me

whether at expiration, ((OCC auto-exercise everything ITM (in the money) by .01 or more))
or exercising prior to expiration, the end result is the same.
OCC is the clearing house, as explained here Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
- after all the day's trading, exercise requests, and expected assignments are processed, a position validation is performed, final netting/gross of positions are processed by participants, and the EnA (exercise and assignment) activity is posted by the clearing house to all the counterparts. yes an individual brokers assignments can be offset by exercises within that same brokers account. but also between counterparties. its same parameters of CNS process (continuous net settlement) NSCC uses (Continuous Net Settlement (CNS))

Help me out here. Yeah when trading stock, you go through the market, buyer, seller, bid ask, trades either go up the ask list or down the bid list. Stock price tracks this movement.
However, when trading options, (assuming they were not naked or cash backed), you are dealing with someone who already has shares they previously bought from the market. If I already have 100 shares, write a call and it get exercised, I don't need to go to the market to get the shares, they come directly from my account and go right to your account. How can that influence the stock price?

In your example of naked calls, if the writers had to come up with shares, then that would drive stock price up due to their purchasing, Which would occur at eh ask price, driving the stock price up.
I think @Artful Dodger's data is either not a direct option trade, or the values are not current share prices.If they were the basis for the trade, that would make sense.

EnA trades are not Exchange trades, they are not reported by or to the stock exchange, or options exchanges for that matter...they are rather a result of the net processing of the clearing house and all the counterparties, then booked by clearinghouse to all ctpty ledgers, then booked by brokers/banks, etc to their cust and house accts

if im naked short 10 calls and im assigned, my brokerage will post
+10 calls @ 0.00
-1000 shares @ strike

those are EnA trades

if i have the liquidity to support the margin inherent that short position of 1000 shares, the only thing left to do is for the broker to arrange a borrow to cover my short position.
if i dont have the liquidity to support the margin requirement for that short position, ill get liquidated at first opportunity, or next days open

the broker liquidating me are exchange trades (and reported by exchanges to NSCC and funneled into CNS (continuous net settlement)

id guess between 75-95% (but i have no clue) of the EnA activity (across regular trading days and both weekly and monthly expiration) is anticipated and hedged by individual traders, MMs, HFTs so the market moving impact is relative.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wish this meant they would reopen soon, but I haven’t seen any indications, other than a pact to work together. Anyone else know where Newsom’s thinking is on reopening/lifting restrictions?

Yes, the press release clearly stated their position. Which is that they will use science to determine when and how they can safely re-open the economy. And from an economic standpoint, this is exactly what you would want. Too soon threatens problems down the road while being too cautious without justification further damages the economy which causes it's own impacts to health.

 

[Prunesquallor]

MMD time?

Ouch. Yup

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think @Artful Dodger's data is either not a direct option trade, or the values are not current share prices.

This data is the NASDAQ volume weighted average per-minute selling price for the After-hrs minutes which included those big dips. You can see that the VWAP is not exactly at the strke price for an options contract, nor is the number of shares traded exactly in multiples of 100 shares (1 contract).

If you'd like, I can solve the matrix for you to extract the number of contracts sold, and the number of single shares sold and the price at which they traded. Excel 'goal seek' handles this nicely.

So no, the executiion of the options contract does not affect the market SP, since in effect it is a closed transaction on top of regular after-hrs trading. Look at the VWAP for the 18-52 minute: $676.15 which was within pennies of the SP pre/post 'dip'.

Cheers!

 

[kbM3]

Also, he is behind the times. While Elon did boast about the upcoming Model Y wiring almost three years ago, he subsequently reversed his position, explaining that his management team had convinced him to do less cutting edge stuff in the Model Y to allow it to be brought to market faster. So Munro, supposed expert, doesn’t even know what the latest info is about the Model Y.

Frankly, I’m impressed they stuffed in a brand new heating/cooling system based on a heat pump. And even that one, they had to rush it, not having had the time to put a noise jacket around the new compressor.

So instead of calling him a dick, maybe I should have said he’s unclear, easily misinterpreted, and unknowledgeable. I think my original wording was more concise, but maybe misinterpreted

My recollection is that Elon stated that they were still going to keep the wiring changes in the model Y, even after he mentioned that his team talked him back from the brink of insanity on redesigning the entire platform. I don’t remember if he did it in the same conference call, or in the following one.

 

[SageBrush]

The heat pump is part of the reason the Y range is so close to the 3 in spite of it's larger cross-section. It also likely brought the vehicle cost down.

Now that is a happy thought. I gather that you think the heat pump cost is less than the savings from being able to avoid other parts ?

 

[dl003]

Ouch. Yup

Looks like they waited for the freight train to slow down instead of jumping in front of it an hour earlier.

 

[jbcarioca]

not arguing anything you are saying. But he never had a “live” stream taking apart other cars before...

Totally agree. In the best of times Mr. Munro has never been known for his eloquence. Just to add, I personally don't think much of his aesthetic or culinary talents either. That said, I simply don't care about those things. His team are as good as it gets for industrial cost accounting and process improvement. Despite his past record I think he's out of date on industrial automation too. That, too, does not really matter to me.

If presentation skills or politically sensitive observations are needed, 'he ain't the man for the job!'
Lest anybody forget, check his record and you'll find he calls things as they are factually, whether he likes them or not.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yes, the press release clearly stated their position. Which is that they will use science to determine when and how they can safely re-open the economy. And from an economic standpoint, this is exactly what you would want. Too soon threatens problems down the road while being too cautious without justification further damages the economy which causes it's own impacts to health.

“And if you don’t like those statistical models, I’ve got other ones...“.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe we could talk about Munro and wiring in an appropriate MY technical forum/thread?

Nice to see the board consensus has swing from, "I'll never sell my core shares" to "I just sold half my core shares" and now back to "I never touch my core shares".

Very strong breakout indicator.

 

[qphan79]

Totally agree. In the best of times Mr. Munro has never been known for his eloquence. Just to add, I personally don't think much of his aesthetic or culinary talents either. That said, I simply don't care about those things. His team are as good as it gets for industrial cost accounting and process improvement. Despite his past record I think he's out of date on industrial automation too. That, too, does not really matter to me.

If presentation skills or politically sensitive observations are needed, 'he ain't the man for the job!'
Lest anybody forget, check his record and you'll find he calls things as they are factually, whether he likes them or not.

“at the end of the day”....sorry i forgot what i was gonna say!!

 

[jbcarioca]

Now that is a happy thought. I gather that you think the heat pump cost is less than the savings from being able to avoid other parts ?

Not speaking for @mongo. The entire 'Octobottle' assembly can be a single pre-assembled installation. Forgetting about function, the assembly cost is a tiny fraction of the Model 3 for equivalent function, which itself was vastly cheaper than teh Model S and X. We will hear, maybe, but I'll wager that that assembly alone saves >$200 in labor while reducing maintenance costs. The heat pump itself we'll hear more about. That one is a marvel all it's own. With luck somebody on Munro's team is competent to judge from a functional perspective. he does have some serious HVAC talent on call.

 

[JRP3]

Carsonight
@carsonight
For whatever it's worth, I was with some GF1 employees today. One from Panasonic said he's going back to work this Wednesday, one from Tesla is going back the following Monday, motors never shut down, and parts of battery have been on part time hours. Looks like back to work.
Carsonight on Twitter

 

[SOULPEDL]

Despite the massive health and economic crisis around the world, the air is getting cleaner and illustrates the urgent need to transition to clean energy-- and we all benefit from cleaner air.

I'm noticing an increase in Nextdoor shaming for non-use of covid masks at the store (neighborhood website). This chatter is going to look a lot like the dirty air debate I foresee, though not nearly as profound. Myself, I feel it with people wasting energy and have to temper it.

The return of the cloud clears our skies. Harder the better for this epic backfire of the century.

 

[jeewee3000]

Nice to see the board consensus has swing from, "I'll never sell my core shares" to "I just sold half my core shares" and now back to "I never touch my core shares".

Very strong breakout indicator.

Indeed. That's one step before the "Oh no, we're at ATH but I got out at what I thought was the local high last week! Help me bring the SP down, guys!"

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The key to happiness is low expectations.

That's what my wife has been telling me for years. LOL

Dan