Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

It's just speculation based on the Reuters article. I don't consider it accurate until proven so.

I think the market agrees with you.

 

[Stochastic]

have good weekend read

 

[CorneliusXX]

I agree with much of your post. Your last two points, however, seem a trifle simplistic:
- Numerous battery-powered and hybrid aircraft have been tested and/or in the process of design, including from Airbus and even Boeing bought into one such effort. However, until batteries can come close to matching the energy density of kerosene they will not make significant inroads. That is probably in excess of 1000Wh/kg, according to a recent study I read (I cannot locate the source now). Regardless of the specific energy density, there are numerous gigantic impediments in infrastructure and operational safety that will require years of effort even after the battery weight problem has been solved.
- for power plants there is a present opportunity with proven economics and compelling practical advantages in Capex and deployment Speed. That has nothing to do with nuclear. It is limited to ‘peaker plants’ that operate only as backup for high demand. Most of them are natural gas and batteries are rapidly replacing new project deployments. Hydroelectric peakers will remain competitive especially in places such as North America (Eastern Canada, mostly, but also Pacific Northwest) with South America (mostly Brazil) and a few other places. The peaker plants along will easily absorb many multiples of present battery production without improvement in present economics. Further the rapid growth in wind (think West Texas) and solar demands efficient storage so drives gigantic demand, notably including the largest in the world when completed in South Australia (Hornsdale- Tesla supplied batteries packs). Zero cost or density increases need, just much, much more supply.

if Tesla had right now ten times the battery production capacity It now has, without improvement, all of it could be deployed providing peaker replacements. Inherently, the very, very fast response of batteries provides grid stability not otherwise achievable, and that is nearly priceless.

More advances in price and density will only accelerate the utility trends that are already very evident. In other words the only problem is battery supply.

Thanks for your thoughts. Both comments were noted as highly speculative.

To address the energy storage comments (I have looked at financing storage assets in some detail as a lender), cheaper cells will still make a world of difference. When modelling a pure debt investment that involves batteries using current costs you end up with numbers that are difficult to get through risk committees. By the time discounts are included for uncertainty around battery longevity and future power prices it is quite difficult to make a case certain enough to get internal signoff on the investment unless there are strong parent guarantees or other mitigants. Hedging instruments and energy supply contracts also don't tend to extend out to the 10+ year horizon of most transactions. So the current solution is for the owner to increase their equity component - and this leads to lower total investment in battery storage. If the battery packs were half price many of these concerns would go away and overall investment would increase.

Also, today you could go out and purchase cells in the GWh range from battery manufacturers without too much effort - I know of one company that is doing it. I doubt these cells would be available if the energy storage solution was was as cut and dried as stated at current cell prices . There could just be a tech/software impediment, however I believe cost is likely the limiting factor.

I think cheaper cells wrapped into a simple product will do wonders to accelerate energy storage.

As for the aircraft comments, I defer to your knowledge in the area. But it does seem very clear to me just how much of a killer product an electric aircraft will be once technically feasible (although I don't profess to know when) - relatively small, quiet electric VTOL aircraft with several hundred miles of range will reshape the flight economy. Once it is technically capable there's going to be a land rush (so to speak) to fill the market, which will have devastating effects for traditional flights.

 

[mblakele]

have good weekend read

Unexplained PDF, posted by a relatively new account?

No offense, but I’ll pass.

 

[Reductionist]

Elon giving some additional detail on battery day:

Let the speculation commence!
This is getting more exciting by the day

 

[jhm]

A

Refineries are incredibly wasteful and they have licenses to pollute in a big way (even if they have tightened it up in recent decades). Most of them will flare off excess gas without bothering to make electricity from it. The refineries around here all have high-tension power lines going in and their own power sub-stations, feeding nothing but the refinery. These are not small power lines. Bzzzzt.

A few weeks ago I posted on the Somhorting Oil thread an article that summarized research showing the emissions from well to gas station pump are about 30% of the emission from combustion. I don't recall what portion of that was electricity. There is a lot of fuel used for transport and process heat.

 

[Stochastic]

Unexplained PDF, posted by a relatively new account?

No offense, but I’ll pass.

haha none taken ...its a financial stability report published by Fed...seemed relevant to share here

 

[jhm]

Elon giving some additional detail on battery day:
View attachment 542020
Let the speculation commence!
This is getting more exciting by the day

Most of us will not be there in person in any case. Why bother trying to impress analysts and reporters?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

haha none taken ...its a financial stability report published by Fed...seemed relevant to share here

Care to provide a hint/summary of its contents? It's a 78-page report from the Federal Reserve. Although I've got plenty of time, my expertise is in engineering, so financial matters requires a bit more time to comprehend.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla opening a factory near Austin is already being discussed on the largest AM radio news station in Austin KLBJ 590 AM.

 

[JusRelax]

No idea how accurate this is... first time I've heard of apnews:

Tesla picks Austin, Tulsa as finalists for new US factory
Tesla picks Austin, Tulsa as finalists for new US factory

"It wasn’t clear if there were any other finalists in the mix."
"Tesla has said the plant will be larger than its factory in Fremont, California, which employs 10,000 workers."

 

[mblakele]

haha none taken ...its a financial stability report published by Fed...seemed relevant to share here

A link would be better, IMO

The Fed - Financial Stability Report

This report summarizes the Federal Reserve Board’s framework for assessing the resilience of the U.S. financial system and presents the Board’s current assessment. By publishing this report, the Board intends to promote public understanding and increase transparency and accountability for the Federal Reserve’s views on this topic.​

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Most of us will not be there in person in any case. Why bother trying to impress analysts and reporters?

Agreed. None of them had a clue about how huge autonomy day was. This won’t be any different.

 

[Tim S]

A link would be better, IMO

The Fed - Financial Stability Report

This report summarizes the Federal Reserve Board’s framework for assessing the resilience of the U.S. financial system and presents the Board’s current assessment. By publishing this report, the Board intends to promote public understanding and increase transparency and accountability for the Federal Reserve’s views on this topic.​

Fed Warns of Financial Risks as Coronavirus Downturn Wears On

The central bank said the financial system “amplified” the shock in March, and warned that vulnerabilities remain heightened.

 

[mongo]

Agreed. None of them had a clue about how huge autonomy day was. This won’t be any different.

There will more to see this time than just talking about the guts of chip, software, and riding in a car. Equipment (especially when running) is more impressive in person. For instance, all of Tesla's stamping and injection molding machines are the same size as anything else on my laptop screen...
Someone saying they produce cells faster than a machine gun fires bullets is one thing. Seeing a machine churning out cells at that rate is something else. Then seeing the machines that package those cells into modules/ packs.

 

[Curt Renz]

Great fight for $800!

Indeed. Today is a monthly options expiration day. There was much open interest in both calls and puts at the $800 strike price, and that likely expanded throughout the session as indicated by the trading volumes in those options. The trading volume in TSLA stock was relatively light, so option writers (largely hedge funds and market makers) could benefit by channeling the share price to close right near $800. They got to keep almost all of their premiums for the $800 strike price options, while the retail owners of those options were essentially shut out.

 

[Ameliorate]

Agreed. None of them had a clue about how huge autonomy day was. This won’t be any different.

I think battery day will be much more digestible by all viewers, they likely will state the improvements and how this will change their cars and battery storage and maybe hint at profits.

Autonomy, I feel very few people care about how it is achieved, the big question is when. It is a huge deal when it is done but the autonomy demo in no way proved success was inevitable and or when it would be complete. Impressive, but not definitive.

Battery day shows improvements we can make today, at x cost, and how this will affect us going forward. Not to mention seeing the physical completed project, it's there, it exists, it's done. On to future iterations. I can't wait.

 

[JusRelax]

Associated Press News agency? Really?

Ok, that makes sense. Everyone's allowed a 'duh' moment every once in a while, right? lol

 

[pz1975]

California officials reject subsidies for Musk's SpaceX over Tesla spat

California playing chicken with Elon - I know who I have my money on.

 

[Prunesquallor]

California officials reject subsidies for Musk's SpaceX over Tesla spat

California playing chicken with Elon - I know who I have my money on.

O-Kay, then. SpaceX HQ to Houston?