Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Is anyone tracking Workhorse (WKHS)? Their SP over the last week has been WTF. I missed out on that, of course, but here’s ARK Invest’s take:

“Workhorse appreciated 21.3%, 17.4%, 22.4%, and 15.6% on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, respectively. Though momentum strategies probably propelled the gains, the announcementthat Workhorse’s two all-electric delivery vans passed Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards provided the fundamental impetus for these moves, particularly because Workorse now is positioned well to bid on a $6 billion contract for the next generation US Postal Service mail truck.”

I find it interesting that they are targeting a market that Tesla is (currently) not pursuing, therefore they may stand a chance. I bought into a small position just for fun.

 

[elasalle]

They absolutely have used the semi between Fremont and Reno hauling supplies and such. That was established a long time ago and reported on.

My point is moot, if the above (i.e. hauling supplies ) is correct. I have heard of reports of it driving the route once or twice, along with appearance in rest of Country, but was not aware that it was being used to haul supplies.

Tesla said they would use the Semi internally first. However I think they have correctly focused in getting batteries etc in place before even adding a few more beta models for personal use.

 

[Jack6591]

Ok, it is Friday. And the stock is exactly where MM wants it so entertain me another way...
let's say you have two things ot figure out for yourself.
1. What car would you like to have on the OUTSIDE but it remains a tesla in every other way.
2. And what interior from any other car would you like on the inside instead of the Tesla one.
OK a third question if you can not use either of the other two cars from above...what car would you like to have the Tesla tech in, but not look like a Tesla in any way.
These can be any car from any year...and give us your reason and personal reasons for choosing them.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

My point is moot, if the above (i.e. hauling supplies ) is correct. I have heard of reports of it driving the route once or twice, along with appearance in rest of Country, but was not aware that it was being used to haul supplies.

Tesla said they would use the Semi internally first. However I think they have correctly focused in getting batteries etc in place before even adding a few more beta models for personal use.

Yeah, no way this is a regular thing. We would have seen a lot more reports and pictures over the last year if that was the case. Looks to me like they did a few trials a year or so ago and haven't since. Actually there has been very few reports of the semis being visible at all the last couple of months.

We still don't know for sure if there are any more functional semis than the two original ones do we?

 

[Skryll]

Apparently Semis are being used to deliver vehicles in the bay area:

Tesla Semis are being used to deliver cars in the Bay Area! - Reddit r/teslamotors

A really good sign that Tesla is moving ahead with the Semi. I'd guess these are early release candidates like we saw pop up from the MY around October/November last year. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the semi starts to be produced in more serious volumes later this year.

I expect an update on the status of the Semi in the Q2 ER.

While this may be lovely, I don’t see evidence that it justifies the use of ‘semis’ plural. They did this before for show with one prototype, and I had the same hope you stated above back then too.

Maybe battery day will change that but so far I don’t think this is significant, unfortunately.

 

[Christine69420]

1. What car would you like to have on the OUTSIDE but it remains a tesla in every other way.

OK a third question if you can not use either of the other two cars from above...what car would you like to have the Tesla tech in, but not look like a Tesla in any way.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Well you certainly decreased the level of discussion with this nugget. Do you have any actual evidence, or is "B.S." your standard method of analysis?

No one here is offering advice. We discuss possible approaches. You, alternately, have provided your personal opinion, which remains baseless since you've chosen an emotional appeal to support your claim.

"Who hurt you? Will you go broke?" See? Not very helpful, is it. But it is a form of FUD.

TL;dr Show your evidence, or you're more likely displaying motivated reasoning.

Trying to discuss the merits of technical analysis is similar to discussing the merits of astrology. It's exactly right sometimes, but so what? Please take this (and all TA) to the thread that is specifically meant for it. You know, like Curt is polite enough to do.

 

[PeterJA]

so there is a hierarchy of importance when it comes to my personal chart observations. Yearly , quarterly and monthly chart patterns supercede weekly and daily charts and moving averages supercede candle sticks. i have the usual ability to focus my perspective on long term for the most part but once in a while i am thrown off by too much focus on candlesticks. last week i saw double-top like pattern on nasdaq daily chart and i had the sudden desire to liquidate all my $tsla calls. now keep in mind that i have already ran up my portfolio approx 850% of my original investment in 2018 and approx 3000% off lows in june 2019 and therefore i have more at stake than the average $tsla investor/trader. i have to play offense and defense- growth of capital as well as capital preservation. i therefore- not very often - but sometimes get panicky when i focus too much on shorter-term charts
as of now, my take is that $tsla has the potential of fantastic sp appreciation over the next several weeks to months- i am no more knowledgeable than any of you guys and my only edge is that i have spent thousands of hours studying charts over the last 22 years and have grown my portfolio approx 150 X over the last 19 years by taking risks that will cause many traders to lose sleep. i have traded in all markets and in the end there is the quick and the dead.
bottomline- monthly moving averages are pointed sharply upward for $tsla and i bet it is headed much much higher. at least that is the way i am betting today. there will be day to sell - i do not think that day is anywhere close- maybe several weeks to months away- it is a moving target- i am not in the business of making money by predictions- leave that to charlatans, but in the business of making money by reacting to what the market is doing and making intelligent deductions
oh and a word to those who think i change my mind too often- most of you have never traded with any real capital and have zero idea what it feels like to have serious money on the line when the market goes against you- i therefore treat your opinions as white noise- at the end of the day these guys have the satisfaction of making their point and i have the satisfaction of making money

When does too much of a good thing, such as money, become toxic?

I'd say when it makes you live in fear instead of giving you freedom from fear.

I don't need charts to tell me TSLA is "headed much much higher." That trend is crystal clear from the facts about Tesla, as shared in detail by many generous folks here. The market never "goes against" me, because I'm not selling for years.

So the choice for each us, as pointed out by the generous folks, is buy-and-hold and relax... or trade and live in fear. How much money do you need to be happy? Millions? Billions? Will billions make you happier if you "sometimes" suffer panics?

How much is enough?

Sincerely,
the white noise

 

[EVMeister]

View attachment 557076

Pfft. That panel gap on the roof!

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Will Tesla Post a Q2 Profit (and gain S&P 500 inclusion)?"
| Solving the Money Problem (2 hrs ago)

 

[Nocturnal]

We could invite shorts to the island once a month for comedic relief

You think they could afford the plane ticket?

 

[Krugerrand]

When does too much of a good thing, such as money, become toxic?

I'd say when it makes you live in fear instead of giving you freedom from fear.

I don't need charts to tell me TSLA is "headed much much higher." That trend is crystal clear from the facts about Tesla, as shared in detail by many generous folks here. The market never "goes against" me, because I'm not selling for years.

So the choice for each us, as pointed out by the generous folks, is buy-and-hold and relax... or trade and live in fear. How much money do you need to be happy? Millions? Billions? Will billions make you happier if you "sometimes" suffer panics?

How much is enough?

Sincerely,
the white noise

Nailed it!

And the answer: stupid rich

 

[mongo]

Is anyone tracking Workhorse (WKHS)? Their SP over the last week has been WTF. I missed out on that, of course, but here’s ARK Invest’s take:

“Workhorse appreciated 21.3%, 17.4%, 22.4%, and 15.6% on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, respectively. Though momentum strategies probably propelled the gains, the announcementthat Workhorse’s two all-electric delivery vans passed Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards provided the fundamental impetus for these moves, particularly because Workorse now is positioned well to bid on a $6 billion contract for the next generation US Postal Service mail truck.”

I find it interesting that they are targeting a market that Tesla is (currently) not pursuing, therefore they may stand a chance. I bought into a small position just for fun.

Manufacturers self certify (via internal testing or out sourcing) their compliance with FMVSS, so Workhorse meeting the minimum federal requirements for a production vehicle is a non-event.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/Rulemaking/Articles/Associated Files/newManf.pdf

 

[EVortex]

...


Not Sure why they bring out the Semi as part of "end of Q antics" (do they run out of regular delivery trucks at end of Q?). I thought Tesla bought a Trucking company last year?
They should put it to use b/w a know route (say Fremont/Reno) for all times.

The original two prototype semis have been hauling from the beginning. I have seen them on I-80 between Freemont and Reno and supercharging in Rocklin. I know they have been in other parts of the US based on sighting reports from other forum members. I thought they could have used a few more trucks earlier, but they were probably focusing on testing and identifying changes while using the originals in the real world.

 

[qphan79]

I had a deposit for a long Range rwd Model Y, standard paint and options, and was fine with waiting since I really didn’t need AWD. However I cancelled it yesterday....and submitted a new order for a blue AWD, Induction wheels, and FSD! Was hoping to spend less so i can continue to put more money into TSLA, but life is too short and i figure it’s just taking an advance out of my future gains (not selling any shares yet!). I also never thought I would spring for FSD but my wife just got into a minor car collision two days ago. I started thinking that FSD will be not just safer for my family, but for everything else we share the road with. FSD uptake rates will being going up as it gets better, I’m convinced of it now!

oh wow, just got a text setting up tentative delivery for this Monday afternoon June 29! The end of quarter delivery push is for real!! Though I work Monday evening so I will have to push it to Tuesday morning. Vin number is 22000+. Per TroyTeslike twitter, he’s estimating up to 50% uptake of FSD...the margins this quarter are gonna be amazing!

 

[MartinAustin]

1. What car would you like to have on the OUTSIDE but it remains a tesla in every other way.

 

[MartinAustin]

Gonna disagree with the Model S body refresh. Stamping dies aren't cheap, and their is no obvious need/benefit to change simply to chase fashion. Ask yourself how much VW changed the Beetle between 1949 and 1974 and you'll have your answer.

Avoiding production downtime is another arguement to NOT do frivolous body style changes. Tesla has enough on its plate with the new bty pack and powertrain (which I do expect will include an upgraded HVAC system ala the Model Y heatpump/octavalve.

Fair enough, I would be happy for the same reasons too, and the Model S would continue to confound the critics who insist it is long-in-the-tooth while somehow being the fastest car ever made etc. etc.. Perhaps they will switch to black exterior detailing, a la Model Y, but change some of the interior.

 

[Mo City]

View attachment 557154

#2 (interior) from the Tardis would be a better choice.

OT: I remember back when that show was one of my favorites. Now? SMH.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Is anyone tracking Workhorse (WKHS)? Their SP over the last week has been WTF. I missed out on that, of course, but here’s ARK Invest’s take:

“Workhorse appreciated 21.3%, 17.4%, 22.4%, and 15.6% on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, respectively. Though momentum strategies probably propelled the gains, the announcementthat Workhorse’s two all-electric delivery vans passed Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards provided the fundamental impetus for these moves, particularly because Workorse now is positioned well to bid on a $6 billion contract for the next generation US Postal Service mail truck.”

I find it interesting that they are targeting a market that Tesla is (currently) not pursuing, therefore they may stand a chance. I bought into a small position just for fun.

SHLL and FUV have been charging ahead too. Anything focused on EV products is getting bid up quickly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Important battery article about a company that recently may have been acquired by Tesla. Info in this article comes from the time before SilLion went 'dark'. Here are some important points:

• The team at SiILion is beginning to rewrite the rulebook for lithium-ion battery design
• Not only do the cathode and anode materials need to be next-generation, the entire battery also needs revamping
• They are shifting their focus to auxiliary battery materials, building a support system for the modern silicon and nickel-rich electrodes using unique electrolyte compositions and electrode binders*, while maintaining the advantage of decades of manufacturing expertise by premising their designs on compatibility with existing lithium-ion battery manufacturing methods
• As Dr Molina Piper explains, ‘enabling the next-generation electrode materials will mean enabling a next-generation lithium-ion system design’.
• Moreover, the strategy for attaining next-generation performance must be commercially viable.
• SiILion’s cell technology, through utilisation of lower cost materials and manufacturing compatibility, will be 30% less costly ($/kWh) than state-of-the-art lithium-ion cells.
• By approaching the problem from the view of the battery cell system, SiILion achieves its breakthrough energy density and performance.

*electrode binders = is this a veiled ref to Maxwell DBE manufacturing process?

I think the pieces are all on the table now, but can we put this puzzle together before Bty Day?

There is another important underlying subtext in this description of SilLion's battery technology that is worth emphasizing: SilLion's focus on implementing new tech seemlessly into existing battery cell manufacturing lines.

Here are some relevant extracts from the article:

• With this philosophy in mind, the team at SiILion has undertaken the task of redesigning the old lithium-ion battery system, and their approach has already revealed some impressive achievements
  
• Dr Molina Piper also says that ‘SiILion has created the first viable 80% (by weight) silicon lithium-ion battery anode, capable of integration into standard electrode manufacturing processes’
  
• the technology was specifically designed by SiILion so that it could be readily integrated into the existing infrastructure that is currently used to mass-produce lithium-ion batteries
• This drastically reduces any costs that would be incurred for updating the current hardware, and makes the prospect of using this system commercially all the more attractive

There has been some discussion here on TMC as to whether certain bty chemistry improvements could be implemented in GF1-sourced Panasonic 2170 cells. If Tesla has partnered or acquired SilLion, I think it is very likely indeed that we could see this SilLion-inspired 25-30% cost decrease per unit of energy storage, and an increase in energy density to 300 Whr/Kg with Panasonic cells.

And here's a reminder from Tesla's 8-K 3 yr contract with Panasonc, filed with the SEC on Jun 16, 2020:

"The Agreement is subject to the 2020 GTC and, among other things, sets forth the specific terms between the parties with respect to pricing, planned investments and new technology, as well as production capacity commitments by Panasonic and purchase volume commitments by Tesla over the first two years of the Agreement."​

We live in exciting times.

Cheers!