Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

You should compare the pay-off of options vs holding the stock, not vs holding cash imo. That $360 to buy $1,500s would buy you more TSLA shares today at a SP of $1,400, than if the SP is $1,860 upon expiration.

At all those breakeven numbers, you'd have been better off simply holding onto the stock.

Agreed, however I am confident in a SP higher than $1860. These (and 1200s) represent 80% of my portfolio, so it is a risk reward balance.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Can someone explain the supercharger network being monopolistic? I’ve never understood that. Tesla invested their own money developing a nationwide network of fast charging. Does it only become monopolistic once Tesla gets into the energy business across the country?

EU is more likely to take action against dominant companies. Monopolistic might be the wrong word. Microsoft, Amazon (I think) and a few others have been surprised at EU actions. Someone smart at Tesla can see this.

Elon himself isn't USA centric.

Canadian links, met Uk wife in Uk, learneddlearned to drive in left hand drive manual cars presumably.

In my opinion being open to all cars will have benefits for additional charger locations and less regulatory hassle overall. Removes a source of criticism and furthers electrification. Tesla generally cheaper, could allow lots of networks to be acquired as demand for other networks reduce and access to public land

I wonder if V3 designed with this in mind. V2 probably wasn't non-tesla capable. Combine with greater availability of storage (get paid for taking surplus energy) , Tesla being a uk electricity provider/trader (autobidder), links with octopus (uk, Germany, Australia) and... I might be seeing too much.

 

[LisaW]

Thanks Papa Fox. I learn something every time I read you. LW

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

"They don't use batteries to go to space." - Some Idiot explaining why Fuel Cells are a viable technology

When Nikola inevitably fails, he might have a bright future ahead of himself in stand-up comedy.

Nikola CEO explains the competition with Tesla

Someone needs to clue him in that every Falcon 9 has a model S battery pack (power's the grid fins that guides the 1st stage to a landing zone.).

 

[wipster]

In a few months??

Doesn't mean it will be implemented, keep that in mind. Probably demonstrated enough to scare the sugar out of the competition though...

 

[Buckminster]

Who expects to call in rich on the 23rd of July?

This is all happening so fast.

I am not throwing away my shot!

 

[Mo City]

I think it's important to put down Elon's exact words:
"I think I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. So, yes, I think there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level five autonomy. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and then putting the whole system together and just keep addressing the long tail of problems so you'll find that you're able to address the vast majority of situations."
...
"But I'm absolutely confident that this can be accomplished with the hardware that is in the Tesla today and simply by making software improvements we can achieve level five autonomy."

I think you need to draw a distinction here between having "the basic functionality for level five autonomy" and having actual level five autonomy. He said he's confident that the first will be achieved this year. But I think that long tail of small problems comes after that and he's not even guessing how long that might take, although he's confident the current hardware is good enough to do the job.

Later Elon waxes philosophical: "If you just leave hydrogen out for a while, it turns into us."

Thanks for this. As far as I'm concerned, Elon put his head on the chopping block and left very little wiggle room. "Absolutely confident".

His words imply they are close enough to the finish line to know for certainty they can actually cross it. "Small problems" are small problems.

I expect the upcoming "feature complete" release to prove to the world HW3 will get it done. If that happens, TSLA should at least double because Tesla will have the ultimate cheat code of autonomy + instantaneous mass distribution.

Has Elon ever committed to the term "level 5" before now?

 

[Drumheller]

My opinion: caution on high optimism of level 5 being achieved soon. My career has been software development, 23 years of paid work so far. I recall the plan to have a coast to coast drive completed in 2017, then full self driving was going to be feature complete by end of 2019. Recently the team decided to do a code rewrite... that doesn't happen when you are nearly done with a project.

I view Tesla's approach as the best one out there, and I do view them as being in the lead. I also think level 5 is still years away. I'd be happy to be proven wrong on that.

 

[samppa]

Can someone explain the supercharger network being monopolistic? I’ve never understood that. Tesla invested their own money developing a nationwide network of fast charging. Does it only become monopolistic once Tesla gets into the energy business across the country?
This post should have received more Funny votes. Level 5 being complete can mean a lot of things, but if Tesla isn’t ready to do the cross country self driving demo then Elon shouldn’t be talking about Level 5 being complete this year.

Hey we already have ionity here with up to 350kw charging. And they cost only 0,79€/kWh! Cheap!
It's also much cheaper if you have a german ev, different rates. Which is rather interesting from a legal point of view, Ionity did get EU subsidies for building the network.

 

[Artful Dodger]

New share accum deadline.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281123131281666048
Elon giving a Neuralink update on the 28th of August. Could be a small bump for TSLA.

Then again, could backfire if he livestreams his cranium being drilled into.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Battery Day
Join S&P 500
Decent working FSD released

Are these all planned to happen around the same time to make the stock moon?

Don't forget the (most?) important part,

Tesla Short Shorts are delivered, including the international buyers.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Hey we already have ionity here with up to 350kw charging. And they cost only 0,79€/kWh! Cheap!
It's also much cheaper if you have a german ev, different rates. Which is rather interesting from a legal point of view, Ionity did get EU subsidies for building the network.

Different rates in FIRST year as the manufacturers include the fee in the car cost

15-18 euros a month PLUS €0.29 to 0.33 per kWh from year TWO

IONITY network dramatically increases EV fast charging costs

"Discounts on the new fees Europe will be available to members of Connected Mobility Service Providers networks, such as Audi e-tron Charging Service, Mercedes me Charge, BMW ChargeNow, Porsche Charging Service and Volkswagen WeCharge.

Mercedes me Charge, for example, has already announced that it will charge €0.29/kWh at IONITY chargers, with no annual subscription fee for the first year. Audi e-tron Charging Service will cost €0.31/kWh plus a monthly subscription of €17.95, while Porsche Charging Service will cost €0.33/kWh plus a basic annual fee of €179. BMW ChargeNow and Volkswagen WeCharge have not yet announced their tariffs.

As a comparison, Tesla charges an average of €0.24/kWh in France, €0.33/kWh in Germany, €0.28/kWh in Belgium, €0.25/kWh in the Netherlands and €0.30 in Italy."

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks @Artful Dodger I will be more mindful of these bear traps- bought at 1379 & more at 1369.

any tips on how to spot them as early as possible ? ( I’m starting to keep this thread open during the day - lots of intelligence and wisdom here- wish I would have known about it 10 years ago!)

Lol, spend 10,000 hrs becoming an 'Expert'? But there are a few cracks in the Wall, that's how the light gets in...

Okay, it's all about 'suspicious' trading activity. Sure, there's the usual increase in FUD articles in the Financial Press and 'special guests' appearing on CNBC, and the resurgence of 'Service is BAD' b.s. on TMC, but did you notice this *sugar* from out of the blue in trading at Frankfurt while U.S. Markets were closed on Friday for the Forth of July Holiday?

That's a 65.30 Euro drop (USD$73.90) from High to Low for NO REASON at all, and suspiciously ignored by the U.S. markets on Monday, July 06. It's Bears sending each other covert signals for cheap (low volume in Frankfurt), messages for which they can't be prosecuted for collusion.

Yesterday's big intraday drop on NASDAQ? Coincidently also USD $75 from the point where the SP crossed yesterday's Closing SP to the bottom of the dip: (but just a coincidence right?)

We spent 3 days above the Upper-BB. That is unprecedented. A bear raid was inevitable, since they can not help but *sugar* in the woods. It's what they do. Most reliable cycle on Wall St.

Diff between now and Feb 4th is the News queued up for TSLA:

• profitable Q2
• pending S&P 500 inclusion
• Bty day has a firm schedule
• Q3 looks killer incl'd VA ~$1.5B

All adds up to four little words: FOMO

Cheers!

P.S. Non-surprise Credit Rating upgrades from Moody's will be coming at a steady pace after profitability and S&P 500 inclusion is achieved. It's all good!

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Norway June 2020

Will this be remedied by September or will it require Model Y?

 

[FrankSG]

I expect the upcoming "feature complete" release to prove to the world HW3 will get it done. If that happens, TSLA should at least double

Never underestimate the street's ability to not understand things.

I'm probably one of the biggest bulls when it comes to Tesla's autonomy potential, but I caution against statements like this. I think it's very tricky predicting when the market will 'get' the implications of Tesla's strategy and lead in autonomy.

 

[Carl Raymond]

My opinion: caution on high optimism of level 5 being achieved soon. My career has been software development, 23 years of paid work so far. I recall the plan to have a coast to coast drive completed in 2017, then full self driving was going to be feature complete by end of 2019. Recently the team decided to do a code rewrite... that doesn't happen when you are nearly done with a project.

I view Tesla's approach as the best one out there, and I do view them as being in the lead. I also think level 5 is still years away. I'd be happy to be proven wrong on that.

I understand your scepticism Drumheller.

Does your skill set include AI development? I too have been writing code for 20+ years, but nothing involving machine learning or neural nets. In a way, experience with traditional software leads one to underestimate the possibilities of AI.

My estimate for when the march of nines begins? Not a clue. I thus place no value on the robotaxi network in my TSLA valuation. However I still believe (am certain) Tesla will outgrow Apple by a factor. Musk is too smart and he wants to be remembered by history as the man who made us multi-planetary, which doesn’t come cheap. Another reason is that more people are realising that if Tesla fails, Earth fails. The playing field will be tilted to assist, if necessary. Tesla will be huge, one way or another.

 

[marvinat0rz]

EV Sales: Norway June 2020

Will this be remedied by September or will it require Model Y?

Absolutely no idea. Just to offer the information I can contribute with: Model S, 3, and X are everywhere in Norway; you'll see multiple every time you go driving in a major city. There is still plenty of room to grow, but I'd expect the growth curve here to be flatter from now on, excluding new models.

That said, part of the explanation could of course be priority of shipments and production going to places that have a different mix. I know at least one person in my peripheral sphere that's waiting for his Model Y to be delivered. That's also the car I am drooling over, although I have to keep talking myself out of it. (European city dweller; don't really need a car! )

 

[TrendTrader007]

papafox even though i am permanently retired from TMC since i am a huge fan and greatly respect you- here is my 2 cents about DITM calls- i have traded hundreds of january as well as June 2022 DITM contracts ranging from $250 to $500 over the last several months with zero problems with liquidity. i am sure you are correct about erosion of time premiums but i have found a curious much higher appreciation of my DITM calls on days when stock goes up and lesser depreciation on days like yesterday. all in all i have been trading DITM LEAPS exclusively as 100% of my portfolio since 2018 and never had any problem trading in size. just FYI
my feel is that $tsla calls even though super-richly priced have a lot of institutional demand especially since with impending sp500 inclusion there will be a severe contraction of tsla free float. so DITM 2022 calls are a potential jackpot
as always thanks for your amazing insights

 

[Mad@gascar]

In a few months??

Sure. 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely!