Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dakh]

I remain very bearish on nearly all EV startups, particularly those outside China. Excluding China, Tesla's long term competition will come from legacies who evolve and survive through mergers and partnerships.

Give it a few years. When batteries become cheap enough, any fool with an ability to stamp car bodies would be able to produce EVs. But like with any commodity market, nobody's gonna make any substantial money doing that.

 

[Causalien]

This is like an early 2010´s revival party today, with all the long time members back and consecutive posts from @SteveG3 @Causalien an you . One of the best things about reaching all time highs.

We are in a weird crucial time. So I am sticking around for a bit.

My 3rd market collapse event in lif.eThis one is strange because usually, when you see literal blood on the street, the stock market should be at the bottom of the valley.

The beginning of July, I am seeing suicides, all over the news (literal blood on the street) . Depression, breakups, job loss amonst my circle. My inner circle is doing fine as they heeded my warning, but I don't know how long they can hold onto their jobs.

I suggest ppl here to look around their circle and be kind. Try yo pickout signs of trouble and help them. Also your happiness might trigger ppl's anger so watch out a bit.

 

[Quesder]

What happened to that beautiful 3pm dip like yesterday? I was all ready with some dry powder to pick up a few shares and no dip!
We cannot even rely on MMs to manipulate consistently anymore, what is the world coming to?

View attachment 562504

That MM also tried on NIO, but let’s see what happens today.

 

[Papafox]

papafox even though i am permanently retired from TMC since i am a huge fan and greatly respect you- here is my 2 cents about DITM calls- i have traded hundreds of january as well as June 2022 DITM contracts ranging from $250 to $500 over the last several months with zero problems with liquidity. i am sure you are correct about erosion of time premiums but i have found a curious much higher appreciation of my DITM calls on days when stock goes up and lesser depreciation on days like yesterday. all in all i have been trading DITM LEAPS exclusively as 100% of my portfolio since 2018 and never had any problem trading in size. just FYI
my feel is that $tsla calls even though super-richly priced have a lot of institutional demand especially since with impending sp500 inclusion there will be a severe contraction of tsla free float. so DITM 2022 calls are a potential jackpot
as always thanks for your amazing insights

Thanks @TrendTrader007 . I must admit that my experience with Deep In the Money leaps has been extremely positive. The 2021 200s that I bought when TSLA was at the bottom of a deep dip are up as much as 1500%, and this is where a large portion of my money resided this past year. I'm rather fond of them ; ). As you say, when the price of TSLA goes down, the leaps decreased in value somewhat less than stock did, particularly when I was near the money. My main reason for favoring shares at some point is that if the macros ever decide to do a big swan dive, I can shed shares faster in my IRA than I can leaps. Maybe now is not the time to make this transition, however. As with most of you, I expect the market to be surprised by how much profit and cash flow TSLA turns out in Q3 and Q4. I expect moderately-wide availability of antibody therapeutics to be a game changer in the COVID19 situation this fall while we await a vaccine, which will be important with macros.

 

[RobStark]

The problem with monthly country-specific sales data when it comes to Tesla is they don't have a bunch of stock sitting on sales lots. Because they are production limited. That means they send batches of production to areas that make the most sense based on a host of other factors. The sales data will be extremely lumpy due to this fact.

The bottom line is monthly sales figures for any local are all but worthless for comparison purposes. There are US states bigger than Norway (no offense to the Norwegians).

You get monthly(June) data but also YTD(Jan-June)

The YTD data is not "lumpy."

 

[Quesder]

I agree. Freedom to spend you time as you wish is just one of the first rungs on the ladder of (economic) wealth. It's an important rung, although its perceived importance varies a lot between people. After comes expensive toys or hobbies, a fortune size that provides unreasonable power to help others, get favors or shape the world around you, and then stuff yet to be invented. Advanced health technology, trips to Mars and so on.

It isn't certain that you'll need a massive fortune to access some of these things after a certain point, though. If we succeed the right way at creating strong AI, there won't be much for money left to buy. But that's in the distant future, plenty of stuff to think about before then

This post is so well said and is exactly what I am asking myself now. May I share it on my Facebook wall?

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 5 minutes ago: Tesla patents new technology for lithium metal/anode-free battery cells - Electrek

 

[N5329K]

Electrek - 5 minutes ago: Tesla patents new technology for lithium metal/anode-free battery cells - Electrek

50 cycles. It's a good start.
Robin

 

[Mo City]

From over $1400, back to $1380 and back to its highest closing price ever at $1394.28 in 45 mins.

This is the TSLA we all know and love.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA attains all-time closing high.

--6.09% GM
--4.11% F
--2.00% FCAU
+2.08% TSLA

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are there really people paying $50 for Jan2022 puts with a strike of $450? These options prices are absurd. Obviously they're for hedging, but TSLA running down to $390 or lower seems.......a longshot.

 

[Nocturnal]

Except he did from the quote that was posted earlier. He said all the features of level 5 which I disagree. Level 4 and 5's difference is pretty much yes or no to steering wheel.

I think we were referencing different talks. My mistake.

 

[Knightshade]

Are there really people paying $50 for Jan2022 puts with a strike of $450? These options prices are absurd.

Yup, in both directions...

I'm sitting on some 1550 Jul 24 2020 calls (2 days after Q2 announce handy enough!)... over 150 bucks OTM, and they're all currently in the green...should probably just sell em at this point given how hard they seem to be working to keep shares under 1400.

 

[StealthP3D]

You get monthly(June) data but also YTD(Jan-June)

The YTD data is not "lumpy."

Yes, it's "lumpy" because the data is only from one small local and Tesla is production constrained in a big world. The data is, at best, a potential indicator of demand in that one region but the caveats are so large it's basically worthless.

You will see TSLAQ use this to their advantage when they cherry pick sales data to make the case that TSLA is falling out of favor, that demand has peaked, that it will shortly be bankrupt. There is a good reason why they use limited data from specific locals to support their false narrative.

 

[Joe F]

WTH? Just saw 4 sells totaling 3500 shares in the book at $700.00?!?.

 

[MABMAB]

$$$ALL TIME HIGH CLOSE$$$

 

[RobStark]

Yes, it's "lumpy" because the data is only from one small local and Tesla is production constrained in a big world. The data is, at best, a potential indicator of demand in that one region but the caveats are so large it's basically worthless.

You will see TSLAQ use this to their advantage when they cherry pick sales data to make the case that TSLA is falling out of favor, that demand has peaked, that it will shortly be bankrupt. There is a good reason why they use limited data from specific locals to support their false narrative.

No it is not "lumpy."

Norway is not Croatia.

It is an important and mature market for Tesla.

And sales data is for half a year. Where Tesla was inactive for about six weeks.

Refusing to accept negative data because it is useful to Tesla bears is foolish. Weeding out information we don't like and only see positive data as correct is confirmation bias to the extreme and dangerous to investors.

 

[obie_fl]

WTH? Just saw 4 sells totaling 3500 shares in the book at $700.00?!?.

Using Fidelity ATP? I saw it too just an artifact data glitch. Reload ATP and it isn't there.

 

[Cobbler]

Where can I find more information concerning the S&P inclusion?
When profit has been made in Q2, inclusion is a given? Or are there other deciding factors in play? Like real people who can decide to complete the inclusion or delay it?

 

[Knightshade]

Where can I find more information concerning the S&P inclusion?
When profit has been made in Q2, inclusion is a given? Or are there other deciding factors in play? Like real people who can decide to complete the inclusion or delay it?

Has been covered pretty extensively... but if Q2 profit then Tesla is eligible for inclusion by S&Ps criteria. There's still a committee that meets to decide to do so or not.... though general thought is that it'd be fairly embarrassing for the index to not include a company that large that otherwise qualifies to join.