Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

I wonder where the 26M shares index funds need to buy upon S&P 500 inclusion are going to come from then.

Not from me.

 

[Mo City]

No, they're not:

Aiight. I can imagine this being the largest battery project in history by an order of magnitude and the breakthrough project that scorches Tesla Energy on the foreheads of analysts and investors.

For the record, I don't accept the denial of a factory at face value. This is the CPC after all and controlling narratives is what they do.
EDIT: According to Wikipedia, Chongqing is far and away the most populous city in the world and a strong choice for GF #2 in China.

If he doesn't comment beforehand, this is a mandatory question for Elon on Sep 22nd.

 

[Buckminster]

TS


TSLA is a continuously paying lottery ticket.

And what does your wealth manager have to say on TSLA now? Still keeping him on for charitable purposes?

 

[printf42]

No, they're not:

Did some digging, and this seems to be the original version appeared in several different places:
重庆两江新区与特斯拉会谈 就加快推进项目合作达成广泛共识
It mentioned the “liang jiang new district” hosted a meeting between CCP district leader and Tesla VP Grace Tao, two party has identified different areas to corporate and will work together to make them reality.
Note it did not say what was discussed and what’s ruled out.

Then later came the version that quoted “someone who is familiar with the matter” saying factory is not discussed yet.

In China, if you only want to build some Service Centers, you don’t get to meet with CCP district leader. They only meet with strategic project sponsors, and the strategy of “Liang Jiang” happens to have “advanced manufacturing”.

Considering Chong Qing is already one of the biggest Automotive hubs in China, I would suspect factory is definitively the main topic.

They might want to keep it low key for a while so to trigger a bid war between different cities for GF6.

 

[Buckminster]

Barron's - 17 minutes ago: Tesla Stock Has More Than Doubled This Year. Why This Investor Is Still a Fan.

Quote of Baillie Gifford's James Anderson:

Many people thought Volkswagen [VOW3.Germany] and other car companies would prove this year that they could compete with Tesla. That hasn't happened. Tesla looks to have structural leadership of five to seven years. The company has been able to expand its growth rate and lower costs more quickly than we thought. Tesla is getting through the worst of its battery-supply constraints, as ex-Tesla employees start battery-supply companies.

Also, there is nothing remotely resembling self-satisfaction in Tesla's ambition to become vastly bigger in scale and in its impact on the world. I have never seen a company with such little complacency. With Tesla, perhaps more than any other company, predicting what the share price will do over one day or three months is a mug's game. But I am happy to be a very strong owner for the next few years.

Baillie Gifford saying that they will hold for years. I suspect they will sell at $5k in September. As the second biggest holder, if they don't sell at $5k we could definitely be looking at $10k spike.

 

[Tslynk67]

That is a dream. IMO, at this point in the proceedings, a lot of people are going to find out the hard way that options are a losing game. My only hope is that the lesson does not put unwary souls out of the big game. Buy equity and hold. GLTA.

Some people on this board keep re-iterating this, but it's not a zero-sum game. You can can do both. I have a pot of core-shares in one account which I never sell and add to when I can, I have another account that I've traded up with options. Both accounts are help as separate legal entities (one personal, one my company), so I although I do transfer between then, I need to take care.

As for the gains, let's see where it was standing at yesterday's top:
- HODL account was roughly 10x up since the main share purchases in Feb 2016
- Trading account, thanks to LEAPS, short term option selling and trading exercised calls, was over 200x up - all this in less than 1 year

So please stop repeating the mantra that options don't make as much money as buying and holding, this is simply not true.

 

[azaz]

1580 on Frankfurt exchange

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks - Good to know @Artful Dodger. That’s a lesson I’ll keep in mind going forward.

is there a time pattern ( ie how long or how much it’s down for) you’ve noticed that determines a down day vs what looks like a dip getting ready to bounce back ?

Well, in general, I wouldn't be a buyer while the SP is above the Upper Bollinger band. In normal times, I'd buy at the Mid-BB, which surprisingly was just 10 days ago on Jun 29. News has obviously driven the SP since, but you can see that the SP was in a rising channel, bouncing between Upper- and Mid-BBs about once a week for the previous 7 weeks until the Q2 P&D Report unleased the Kraken: (June 29, 2020 Stockchart for TSLA)

Ask yourself if you're a buyer because of FOMO. Then look at the upcoming News for the Stock and decide if that news is priced in now, or if the SP is headed up.

I don't know what your budget it but (given sufficient capital), one strategy you could use is to sell PUTS until you are assigned. If you choose well with the Strike price, you'll make money while you wait to buy shares, then ultimately buy them at the price of your choosing, and get them at a discount. Again, NOT ADVICE!

I am far from an expert on Options strategy. I'd recommend engaging some of our more active derivatives players like @Cherry Wine or @Lycanthrope

For me, Options are too much work and worry. I mostly just buy and hold, but will make a small swing trade now and then when the setup is right.

Good luck with your investments!

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some people on this board keep re-iterating this, but it's not a zero-sum game. You can can do both. I have a pot of core-shares in one account which I never sell and add to when I can, I have another account that I've traded up with options. Both accounts are help as separate legal entities (one personal, one my company), so I although I do transfer between then, I need to take care.

As for the gains, let's see where it was standing at yesterday's top:
- HODL account was roughly 10x up since the main share purchases in Feb 2016
- Trading account, thanks to LEAPS, short term option selling and trading exercised calls, was over 200x up - all this in less than 1 year

So please stop repeating the mantra that options don't make as much money as buying and holding, this is simply not true.

You are the one in a hundred investors that are able to manage the complexity and their emotions simultaneously to make gains. Keep in mind that you have been fortunate to be trading options in Tesla at this time where large SP swings and mispricing by MMs makes 200x profits possible.

I think @Hock1 offers good advice based on long experience that will be helpful to the other 99 people considering playing Options.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

I would say your data point is not the best example one could have used to compare calls to shares.

It's a fact. There might be there examples, for instance someone might have bought the same options yesterday when the stock was trading at $1795 and now they'd be down compared to the same purchase of shares.

Those LEAPS were rolled from Jan $875's which I bought in March - just before C19 crash - for $146 each, total cost $56k, they were down to $14k at one point, that's the nature of the game, so now they're up actually 6x up.

There's a time to buy LEAPS and a time not to buy them, but too many people say buy & hold always better than options. Nope, not that simple.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Will Tesla Stock Keep Going Up? Exploring the Mechanics of S&P 500 Inclusion (TSLA)" | Tesla Daily with Rob Maurer

 

[FrankSG]

EDIT: According to Wikipedia, Chongqing is far and away the most populous city in the world and a strong choice for GF #2 in China

This is incorrect. Tokyo is much larger and still far and away the most populous city. It'll probably be dethroned by a Chinese and/or Indian city by 2040 though.

List of largest cities - Wikipedia

Only if counted by "City proper" does Chongqing rank number one, which has a super vague definition, but seems to be mostly based on political jurisdictions:

The United Nations defines the term as "the single political jurisdiction which contains the historical city centre."

 

[Cherry Wine]

It's a fact. There might be there examples, for instance someone might have bought the same options yesterday when the stock was trading at $1795 and now they'd be down compared to the same purchase of shares.

And in fact, those LEAPS were rolled from Jan $875's which I bought in March - just before C19 crash - for $146 each, total cost $56k, they were down to $14k at one point, that's the nature fo the game, so now they're up actually 6x up.

There's a time to buy LEAPS and a time not to buy them, but to many people say buy & hold always better than options. Nope, not that simple.

I will back your position on this, with the caveat that I do agree that being in options is like playing with fire and very stressful (at times it occupies so much mindspace it can be difficult for me to focus on other things). With that said, my returns would be nowhere near what they are if I'd just bought and held. Options are a dangerous game, and I have been burned badly at least twice, but have still done very well overall regardless. Hell, if I'd been less conservative at some strategic points I'd be doing ridiculously well.

I look forward to reaching my final share goal so I can just kick back and invest like a dead person. Or maybe just dabble in a covered call here and there...

 

[Tslynk67]

You are the one in a hundred investors that are able to manage the complexity and their emotions simultaneously to make gains. Keep in mind that you have been fortunate to be trading options in Tesla at this time where large SP swings and mispricing by MMs makes 200x profits possible.

I think @Hock1 offers good advice based on long experience that will be helpful to the other 99 people considering playing Options.

Cheers!

Options are risky and if you're buying weeklies then you'll lose 9/10, I agree. Close to the money multi-year LEAPS in a rising stock are not very risky, IMO, not that much more than owning the underlying asset.

But I'm not talking about the risk, I reacting to those that say you make more money from buying and holding, which is simply not a statement that can be made.

Perhaps if you take 1000 investors over 10 years with 100 different stocks and look at who did best, maybe those that just bought and held did better on average, that might be the case, sure, but you'll get specific scenarios, like we've seen with $TSLA where outrageous gains can and have been made.

 

[kyzhk]

 

[RobStark]

Italy Set To Increase EV Incentives To €10,000 — Are Carmakers Ready?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pre-Market High:

$1,573.89 (04:16:53 AM)

$1,584.00 (04:30:32 AM)​

 

[ThisStockGood]

TSLA short sellers the next week:

Go longs!

 

[Harrito]

Coincidence? I think not. Simulation confirmed!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Exciting news:

Source: https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1282941192158629889