The problem with this line of thinking is that S&Ps really doesn't have any leverage over Tesla to get them to something they might not otherwise do. Tesla doesn't need an S&P listing but S&P needs Tesla.
I don't disagree. But, there's a low to medium possibility of a stand-off, in that S&Ps may
think Tesla needs them more than S&Ps wants them.
A) S&Ps values stability, and TSLA is anything but.
B) S&Ps might not understand Tesla's ongoing and future disruption. There are still more Wall St. analysts with Sell ratings than Buy or Hold. For instance, those who don't know the company and its products like we do are often worried about "competition."
C) S&Ps may want to play a game to get TSLA price down. If they think anything over $900 is solely because of inclusion in their index, then not adding right away could cause a big drop in the share price.
D) Tesla might use the opportunity to have S&Ps help them force upgrades from Moody's or other such institutions, lowering their costs.
E) Last time Musk said a raise "doesn't make sense" they did a raise a few weeks later. That turned out to be fortuitous timing, just before the Covid crises escalated in many regions of the world.
F) Tesla has taken cost cutting measures recently.
G) Musk wants the short sellers off his back and S&P 500 inclusion would help greatly.
I'm not hoping for it, but there is a possibility I think that
both sides think the other needs them more.