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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I added some long calls (not spreads) for an earnings play. Might sell off if we get a nice rise into call next week, or hold if we don't. Some interesting data here:

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1284185868618563587



EdJV6JcXYAMZGbf

Locked in some returns on this play, ready to let the rest ride if the action settles down, or sell off some more if we break $1,600.
 
Just to anecdotally add to what Troy is stating here, on a drive through the Bay Area yesterday I saw a number of trucks loaded with Ys driving on the highway, and I saw a lot of Ys driving on the highway. They are selling a ton of these cars.

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1285240274034327554
I've seen several Y's west of Denver (and lots of 3s Ss etc.) as well. Mountain roads with snow half the year seem to be a perfect place to own an EV. Every time I go down a huge hill I cringe at the amount of energy I'm wasting on braking.
 
The problem with this line of thinking is that S&Ps really doesn't have any leverage over Tesla to get them to something they might not otherwise do. Tesla doesn't need an S&P listing but S&P needs Tesla.

I don't disagree. But, there's a low to medium possibility of a stand-off, in that S&Ps may think Tesla needs them more than S&Ps wants them.

A) S&Ps values stability, and TSLA is anything but.
B) S&Ps might not understand Tesla's ongoing and future disruption. There are still more Wall St. analysts with Sell ratings than Buy or Hold. For instance, those who don't know the company and its products like we do are often worried about "competition."
C) S&Ps may want to play a game to get TSLA price down. If they think anything over $900 is solely because of inclusion in their index, then not adding right away could cause a big drop in the share price.
D) Tesla might use the opportunity to have S&Ps help them force upgrades from Moody's or other such institutions, lowering their costs.
E) Last time Musk said a raise "doesn't make sense" they did a raise a few weeks later. That turned out to be fortuitous timing, just before the Covid crises escalated in many regions of the world.
F) Tesla has taken cost cutting measures recently.
G) Musk wants the short sellers off his back and S&P 500 inclusion would help greatly.

I'm not hoping for it, but there is a possibility I think that both sides think the other needs them more.
 
I don't disagree. But, there's a low to medium possibility of a stand-off, in that S&Ps may think Tesla needs them more than S&Ps wants them.

A) S&Ps values stability, and TSLA is anything but.
B) S&Ps might not understand Tesla's ongoing and future disruption. There are still more Wall St. analysts with Sell ratings than Buy or Hold. For instance, those who don't know the company and its products like we do are often worried about "competition."
C) S&Ps may want to play a game to get TSLA price down. If they think anything over $900 is solely because of inclusion in their index, then not adding right away could cause a big drop in the share price.
D) Tesla might use the opportunity to have S&Ps help them force upgrades from Moody's or other such institutions, lowering their costs.
E) Last time Musk said a raise "doesn't make sense" they did a raise a few weeks later. That turned out to be fortuitous timing, just before the Covid crises escalated in many regions of the world.
F) Tesla has taken cost cutting measures recently.
G) Musk wants the short sellers off his back and S&P 500 inclusion would help greatly.

I'm not hoping for it, but there is a possibility I think that both sides think the other needs them more.

Some of the sell analysts are the likes of Craig Irwin (who quietly bumbed his stand from S 350 to H 750), Jeff Osborn (an early supporter of Nikola), Ital Michael and Gordan Johnson (need I say more)