Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Who still buys the notion S&P 500 inclusion will cause a huge spike in share price?

 

[azaz]

This is very much macro driven as well

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This happens (or used to happen, I haven't paid much attention recently) to Apple all the time - report record revenue and profit, then the next day the stock tanks. But it always went back up again over the long run.

 

[Runarbt]

Who still buys the notion S&P 500 inclusion will cause a huge spike in share price?

Of course it will. Just wait and see what happens when S&P500 give 7-day heads up about inclusion..

 

[jeewee3000]

Picked up some shares @ $1500 with high confidence after this ER.

 

[JusRelax]

$1497

All the robinhood speculators are cashing out

Robintrack says otherwise:

Also, note that the robinhood tracker does get updated throughout the day, so this is somewhat of a real-time picture of robinhood holders of a stock.

 

[Yoona]

20 more @1590- . . been a bad bad boy.
--

Me, too. Collected 50 more here and there, because we all know where the SP is eventually going to in the future.

If I want to retire early, I'm going to do something about it.

“Contrary to popular wisdom, knowledge is not power—it’s potential power. Knowledge is not mastery. Execution is mastery. Execution will trump knowledge every day of the week.” ― Anthony Robbins, 'Money, Master the Game'

 

[computerchuck]

More shares purchased at $1481.

 

[SpaceCash]

Dang it

Still rich

 

[SOULPEDL]

$1497

All the robinhood speculators are cashing out

And when they are done... imagine the buy-back momentum, especially if the price is something more palatable for the S&P. This thing, at some point soon, is going to shoot right back up IMHO. Monday maybe?

 

[Reductionist]

This is very much macro driven as well

Clearly. But TSLA just tracking macros with the usual 2-3x multiple just doesn't feel quite right on very positive news, now does it?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I’ve come to the conclusion that the Tesla-FCA deal is completely opaque. There is no logical reason that credits should have been higher in Q2 than in Q1. FCA sales were abysmal so the emission penalties should have been relatively less.

Similar to your thinking, it seems that the annual credits are agreed to a priori and Tesla can allocate them to whatever quarter they want, making quarterly estimates rather futile.

Much simpler explanation. Tesla doesn't sell enough cars in europe to offset ALL of FCA's penalties. Their deal was simply to offset as much of it as possible, with FCA paying the penalties for the balance. So the amount of regulatory credit that Tesla earns is just how many cars they can sell per quarter. Tesla made a prediction of how many they could sell, and FCA agreed to pay a fixed euro amount per credit for them. Will need to compare the Q1 and Q2 10-Q's to confirm this.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I bought some additional shares at 1485.01.
Just because...
Not advice.

 

[dgodfrey]

Behind Tesla’s Profits

This bear argument that the regulatory credits are pure profit for Tesla is getting annoying, they are not.

Tesla is carrying the R&D cost burden of the mainstream automotive industry.

“To be sure, this cash cow won’t last for too long. In the medium- to long-term, mainstream automotive companies will scale up their zero-emission vehicle sales, reducing the need to buy credits from Tesla.”

Yeah right... still waiting...

Well I kind of view them as pure profit in that I believe Tesla would do nothing different if they weren't offered. And I don't mean that their decision to get into EV's wasn't somewhat tempered in knowing they were available and crunched numbers accordingly, but that their costs of doing business is the same with or without. If my theory is correct, then they could be looked upon as pure profit.

However, that entire point is irrelevant. Whether they are pure profit or partial profit should have no bearing on deserving of them or not.
Certainly an argument can be had that without them, we would have had a different outcome this quarter, last quarter, and all previous quarters. We'll never know though if adjustments would have been made elsewhere to end up with the same results such as back off spending on growth.

But what really is more frustrating is that when the legacy car makers take advantage of those same credits, they get full value whereas I read at one time that Tesla only gets partial credit. I think it's a supply and demand dynamic. Those same legacy auto makers can also bank their overages for years with weaker sales, still at 100% value.
It seems all the other automakers get a pass for using them but Tesla gets slammed for cooking the books when they do.

 

[LTC_RRR]

CNBC - this morning:

"He makes us look like LILLA - PUTIANS!", spoken in his best imitation of A falsetto John Wayne

 

[Maxstorz]

I am not at all surprised by the results, just disappointed in my lack of discipline and venture back into Options. The expiry is Sept, so I do have time, but the strikes are high at $2000. I avoided the lotto tickets ages ago, but still haven't learned my lesson, it would seem. Selling calls is something I've tried, and actually did a few weeks ago, but it was right before the $1794 day, and I got nervous and bailed on the way down.

I consider all of this tuition and a reminder of the strategy I need to be sticking with, which is Buy n' Hold, as several on here have mentioned is truly the lowest stress, most likely way to succeed long term. I'll hang on for a while as this is only one day, but I'm prepared to walk away from the loss, and this is all house money in tax-free account, so I'm really complaining about the quality of gravy at this point.

The best strategy

 

[elasalle]

$1497

All the robinhood speculators are cashing out

Speculators are fickle, they will be Back.

(+ S&P needs them shares and they are in for the long game, the Stocks will be locked away)

 

[dakh]

Check this post out from 2017:

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

luvb2b, Apr 3, 2017
i am starting to think they could report a profit this quarter. have to work through a few numbers but my thought is with higher than expected deliveries, with tesla revenue coming into the mix, and with perhaps some recognition of autopilot or release of reserves for lease guarantees, they could get to gaap profitability. curious if anyone has done the math?

i am eagerly anticipating this event as 4 straight quarters of profitability will make tesla a lock for s&p 500 addition.

Been a long time coming!

 

[mrmage]

Based on your not-advice above I rolled a bit of my profit on the 1500 7/24 options I sold off before todays drop into some 1700 7/31 options that went on sale for half price during said drop

Contrary to my own not-advice, I bought some 7/31 1800c when TSLA was down 4.5% after reading your post. Should have waited, but will double down if TSLA remains low tomorrow.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just checked....still up about 380% from avg share price.....carry on