Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

fyi: Elon Musk's SpaceX in talks to raise funds at $44 bln valuation

 

[Steve m]

Buy the rumor sell the news

 

[Boomer19]

fyi: Elon Musk's SpaceX in talks to raise funds at $44 bln valuation

where’s this from?

i heard some private equity raises from time to time as window opens for existing investors to liquidate, rebalance, etc

but wondering what you heard

 

[hershey101]

Well that was a nice sell-on-the-news event, as expected... Hoping for a followthrough day tomorrow.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Veeeereery interesting options opportunity here. Volatility must be dipping options premiums seem to be coming way down. Now an irrational dip just before inclusion......

 

[CyberDutchie]

Behind Tesla’s Profits

This bear argument that the regulatory credits are pure profit for Tesla is getting annoying, they are not.

Tesla is carrying the R&D cost burden of the mainstream automotive industry.

“To be sure, this cash cow won’t last for too long. In the medium- to long-term, mainstream automotive companies will scale up their zero-emission vehicle sales, reducing the need to buy credits from Tesla.”

Yeah right... still waiting...

 

[Drax7]

Profit taking on good news is generally a short term top.
The Upward momentum Is broken for now.
Support is clear when we rally on bad news.
Buy and hold investors can ignore all this .

 

[Cherry Wine]

Seems like every little rise is getting sold off. I'm thinking it's mostly speculators closing out their call options (allowing MMs to also sell shares purchased as a hedge) and selling off their stock. No thoughts on where we end up this week or next, but will use this as an opportunity to begin adding some more delta.

 

[willow_hiller]

Hmmmm, Max Pain down for me - 503 - same for everyone else?

Stock Option Max Pain

Ooh, hand-crafted R scripts to the rescue:

 

[Curt Renz]

Big money being made today on that scenario (sell options at high IV, buy them back today at low IV).

Indeed. Seven years ago along with TSLA stock I bought TSLA call options and they were quite profitable. Since then, I have avoided buying TSLA options because of the high premiums due to high implied volatility. Instead I have done quite well by simply owning the shares.

Tomorrow is only a weekly options expiration day. But novice options crapshooters, which would include sidelined sports bettors, heavily bought call options in TSLA and other stocks. Big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) gladly invest temporarily in pushing share prices down by short selling, so that the greatest number of call options expire worthless tomorrow. They can cover their shorts on Monday, which should boost prices. They'll likely lose some due to the share price manipulation, but that should be more than made up by the option premiums they keep.

 

[Paul_SF]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1286360612415692802?s=21

I’m sure most of you watched it already. It’s for those that didn’t

 

[BornToFly]

Macros down, but Ford and GM climbing going into earnings next week where they are expected to post a large ... loss?!?

 

[ZsoZso]

Behind Tesla’s Profits

This bear argument that the regulatory credits are pure profit for Tesla is getting annoying, they are not.

Tesla is carrying the R&D cost burden of the mainstream automotive industry.

“To be sure, this cash cow won’t last for too long. In the medium- to long-term, mainstream automotive companies will scale up their zero-emission vehicle sales, reducing the need to buy credits from Tesla.”

Yeah right... still waiting...

The point is, Tesla would not be able to collect a single penny from regulatory credit sales IF the "mainstream automotive companies" made and sold their own EVs as per the regulation required percentage. But those laggards rather continue to make and sell pollution machines to poison our environment and pocket the profits while buying credits from Tesla. So clearly, the blame should be placed 100% on the other manufacturers.

In a sense, the bear argument is correct, this will not go on long term. Sooner or later the dinosaur manufacturers will go bankrupt and nobody will buy the credits from Tesla.

 

[c041v]

It's also helpful to improve option dynamics understanding. Besides the share price change, call options are also going down due to IV crush (IV has dropped from ~160 to ~80 today) and usual time decay. Calls expiring on Friday are particularly vulnerable to time decay right now.

For the day after earnings, you need a LOT of upwards movement just to offset the IV crush and time decay for an option expiring Friday. Both can be mitigated by owning August calls instead of 7/24 calls (you don't mention your expiration date - consider this some general information using your post as a jumping off point).


By a lot - I had some 1700 sold calls for Friday. They repriced from ~60 yesterday to ~10 today, and that was back when the shares were down maybe $7 on the day (I closed that position too early today ).

I am not at all surprised by the results, just disappointed in my lack of discipline and venture back into Options. The expiry is Sept, so I do have time, but the strikes are high at $2000. I avoided the lotto tickets ages ago, but still haven't learned my lesson, it would seem. Selling calls is something I've tried, and actually did a few weeks ago, but it was right before the $1794 day, and I got nervous and bailed on the way down.

I consider all of this tuition and a reminder of the strategy I need to be sticking with, which is Buy n' Hold, as several on here have mentioned is truly the lowest stress, most likely way to succeed long term. I'll hang on for a while as this is only one day, but I'm prepared to walk away from the loss, and this is all house money in tax-free account, so I'm really complaining about the quality of gravy at this point.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Macros down, but Ford and GM climbing going into earnings next week where they are expected to post a large ... loss?!?

They don’t depend on regulatory credits /s

 

[Unpilot]

Yep the rational invisible hand is working.

 

[adiggs]

I am not at all surprised by the results, just disappointed in my lack of discipline and venture back into Options. The expiry is Sept, so I do have time, but the strikes are high at $2000. I avoided the lotto tickets ages ago, but still haven't learned my lesson, it would seem. Selling calls is something I've tried, and actually did a few weeks ago, but it was right before the $1794 day, and I got nervous and bailed on the way down.

I consider all of this tuition and a reminder of the strategy I need to be sticking with, which is Buy n' Hold, as several on here have mentioned is truly the lowest stress, most likely way to succeed long term. I'll hang on for a while as this is only one day, but I'm prepared to walk away from the loss, and this is all house money in tax-free account, so I'm really complaining about the quality of gravy at this point.

Complaining about the quality of the gravy is an excellent place to be

I'm selling options on both sides, and finding that the bulk of my option selling profits are primarily coming from puts these days. That is a function of my comfort with being assigned on puts (buy shares at a discount - woohoo!), along with the tendency for Tesla to go up (rather than down) recently.

Those interested in learning more about selling options - come visit us in the Applying option strategy... thread (and read page 1 at least in order to establish context). We're learning from each other, how to do these option sales better (more profitable, less risk, etc..).

 

[Maxstorz]

Added Jun 21 3000, - off some shares I had gathered from collecting CC premiums.
(Aug, Sept, Oct - sold CC looking good )

S&P or not, Q3/Q4 goals looking good, along with Battery Day, Stock Split news.

$1497

All the robinhood speculators are cashing out

 

[Tslynk67]

I am not at all surprised by the results, just disappointed in my lack of discipline and venture back into Options. The expiry is Sept, so I do have time, but the strikes are high at $2000. I avoided the lotto tickets ages ago, but still haven't learned my lesson, it would seem. Selling calls is something I've tried, and actually did a few weeks ago, but it was right before the $1794 day, and I got nervous and bailed on the way down.

I consider all of this tuition and a reminder of the strategy I need to be sticking with, which is Buy n' Hold, as several on here have mentioned is truly the lowest stress, most likely way to succeed long term. I'll hang on for a while as this is only one day, but I'm prepared to walk away from the loss, and this is all house money in tax-free account, so I'm really complaining about the quality of gravy at this point.

Indeed, but with the IV crush, I'm thinking buying tomorrow for next week might not be a bad play...

 

[Sudre]

I could imagine the MM's launching a DOS attach as they know us retails rely on the site.

Of course I could just look on my broker site, but I'm worried I might catch a glimpse of my portfolio balance

Works for other stocks, but not $TSLA???

View attachment 568052

Same for me. I can look at any stock except TSLA. Glad I keep screen shots of the previous days for the week so I can see THEIR trend. I remember at one point I do believe I mentioned THEY planned on this closing below 1600 Friday.

Yesterdays volume indicated this will close above 1500 and below 1600. Above 1550 was optimal altho that might be changing today but for some magic reason no one can access the volume chart today for TSLA.